Venezuela's Stolen Election: Analyzing the Crisis and US Response

On July 28th, 2024, Venezuela held a presidential election that was meant to be a turning point for the country's democracy. Instead, it has plunged the nation into a deepening crisis as Nicolas Maduro attempts to cling to power despite clear evidence that he lost the vote. This article examines the events surrounding the election, the international response, and the US government's efforts to support democracy in Venezuela.

The July 28th Election

The July 28th presidential election in Venezuela represented the biggest opportunity for Venezuelan democracy in years. After six years of political stagnation and a worsening humanitarian crisis, diplomacy had created an opening for Venezuelans to make their voices heard.

Key points about the election:

• It followed the Barbados Agreement signed in October 2023, which laid out a roadmap for resolving Venezuela's crisis through competitive elections
• Maria Corina Machado won the opposition primary with over 90% of the vote to be their presidential candidate
• Machado was later barred from running by Maduro's Supreme Court
• Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia registered as the opposition's consensus candidate just before the deadline
• Gonzalez campaigned alongside Machado, drawing large crowds across the country

On election day, Venezuelans turned out in historic numbers - over 12 million voters - despite threats, arrests, and intimidation. They voted overwhelmingly for change and democracy.

The Aftermath and Maduro's Attempt to Steal the Election

In the hours and days following the July 28th vote, it became clear that Edmundo Gonzalez had won a decisive victory over Nicolas Maduro. However, Maduro and his allies quickly moved to subvert the will of the Venezuelan people:

• Pre-election polls, exit polls, and precinct-level results all pointed to a clear Gonzalez victory
• The opposition collected and published official tally sheets from over 80% of polling stations nationwide
• These results showed Gonzalez winning 67% of the vote to Maduro's 30%
• Hours after polls closed, Maduro's National Electoral Council (CNE) declared him the winner without evidence
• To this day, the CNE has not published precinct-level results or any proof of Maduro's alleged victory
• Independent observers like the Carter Center noted the opposition's released results appeared genuine, while the CNE announcement lacked transparency and integrity

Maduro's blatant attempt to steal the election has been widely condemned by the international community. Few governments have recognized his fraudulent claims of victory.

Maduro's Post-Election Crackdown

In the wake of the stolen election, the Maduro regime has unleashed an unprecedented wave of repression against the opposition and Venezuelan civil society:

• As of early September, there had been 24 deaths and over 2,000 detentions linked to the post-election crackdown
• 84 minors have been among those detained
• The daily average number of detentions/disappearances is nearly 10 times higher than before the election
• Security forces are stopping citizens to review their WhatsApp chats for signs of organizing
• A new "anti-NGO" law passed in August is designed to make it nearly impossible for civil society groups to operate
• Edmundo Gonzalez has been forced into exile in Spain due to baseless criminal charges and threats against him

This severe repression appears aimed at crushing dissent and preventing Venezuelans from continuing to contest the fraudulent election results.

The International Response

The stolen election and subsequent crackdown have prompted a strong response from much of the international community:

• The US and many other countries have recognized Edmundo Gonzalez as the rightful winner of the election
• On September 12th, the US announced sanctions and visa restrictions on Maduro-aligned officials involved in election manipulation and repression
• The Organization of American States passed a US-led resolution calling for election transparency and an end to repression
• Over 50 countries supported a statement of concern about Venezuela at the UN
• Even left-leaning governments like Chile, Argentina and Brazil have criticized Maduro's actions as illegitimate
• Maduro has diplomatically isolated Venezuela by breaking ties with countries that recognized Gonzalez's victory

However, some key regional players like Mexico, Colombia and Brazil have remained more neutral, calling for proof of results rather than explicitly recognizing Gonzalez. Their potential role as intermediaries remains uncertain.

The US Government Response

The United States has taken a number of steps to respond to the crisis and support democracy in Venezuela:

• Quickly recognizing Edmundo Gonzalez as the winner based on the opposition's released results
• Imposing new targeted sanctions on Maduro regime officials involved in the election theft
• Coordinating diplomatic pressure through the OAS, UN, and other forums
• Maintaining communication with opposition leaders like Gonzalez and Machado
• Supporting Venezuelan civil society and human rights defenders through State Department and USAID programs

However, the US response has also faced some criticism:

• Questions about why broader oil sanctions relief granted in 2023 has not been fully reversed
• Calls from some in Congress to take stronger action like formally recognizing Gonzalez as interim president
• Debate over the effectiveness of current sanctions policy in changing Maduro's behavior

US officials have emphasized the need to calibrate sanctions carefully to avoid worsening the humanitarian situation. They've also noted the importance of supporting a Venezuelan-led process rather than being seen as dictating outcomes.

Key Challenges Going Forward

As the crisis continues to unfold, several key challenges and questions remain:

Negotiations and Transition

• Can international pressure convince Maduro to enter good faith negotiations on a democratic transition?
• What incentives or "carrots" could be offered to regime officials to respect the election results?
• How to balance accountability for human rights abuses with the need for national reconciliation?

Regional Diplomacy

• Will countries like Brazil, Colombia and Mexico take a stronger stance against Maduro?
• Can regional powers serve as effective intermediaries given Maduro's increasing isolation?
• How to maintain a united regional front in support of Venezuelan democracy?

US Policy

• Should oil sanctions be tightened further or used as leverage in negotiations?
• How to calibrate pressure on the regime while avoiding unintended humanitarian impacts?
• What additional support can be provided to Venezuelan civil society and the democratic opposition?

Humanitarian Crisis and Migration

• How to address the risk of increased Venezuelan migration if the political crisis continues?
• What additional humanitarian support is needed inside Venezuela and in neighboring countries?

Conclusion

The July 28th election represented a pivotal moment for Venezuela's future. Despite Maduro's attempts to subvert the results, the Venezuelan people made their desire for democratic change clear. The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining whether that popular will can be translated into a genuine democratic transition.

The United States and international community face a complex challenge in supporting Venezuelan democracy while avoiding unintended consequences. Creative diplomacy, carefully calibrated pressure, and steadfast support for civil society will all be essential. Above all, any lasting solution must be driven by Venezuelans themselves.

As this crisis continues to evolve, sustained attention and engagement from the US Congress, administration, and public will be vital to help the Venezuelan people realize their democratic aspirations. The stakes for Venezuela's future and regional stability could not be higher.

Article created from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxitA0Q0gFk