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Armenia's Strategic Pivot: From Russia to Western Alliances

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Armenia's Security Dilemma and the CSTO Fallout

Last Friday, Armenian Prime Minister Nicol Pashinyan made a significant announcement that has stirred the geopolitical dynamics of the Eurasian region. Armenia has decided to freeze its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), citing Russia's failure to meet its security obligations. This move marks a pivotal shift in Armenia's foreign policy, aiming to reduce dependency on Russia and move closer to Western alliances, with France emerging as a prominent new partner.

Understanding the CSTO

The CSTO, formed in the 1990s by post-Soviet countries, includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. It serves multiple purposes for Russia, such as justifying military presence in member states and preventing them from joining other military alliances. The CSTO's Article 4, similar to NATO's Article 5, mandates collective defense among members. However, Armenia's recent experiences have led to a reassessment of its security ties with Russia.

Why Armenia Is Reevaluating Its Ties with Russia

Armenia's security concerns primarily stem from its neighbor Azerbaijan. The two countries have engaged in a series of conflicts since their independence from the USSR. A ceasefire agreement in 2020 included the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian region within Azerbaijan. However, Armenia accuses Russia of failing to maintain the ceasefire and allowing Azerbaijan to blockade Nagorno-Karabakh.

In September 2023, Azerbaijan captured Nagorno-Karabakh, exacerbating Armenia's security concerns. Prime Minister Pashinyan has criticized Russia's role and sought to diversify Armenia's security partnerships.

France Steps In as a New Security Partner

France has emerged as a key ally for Armenia in this geopolitical shift. In October last year, France announced military hardware sales to Armenia, and recent arms deals include contracts for guns, air defense systems, and military training. French President Emmanuel Macron has reaffirmed France's support for Armenia, much to Azerbaijan's displeasure.

This development is part of a broader regional realignment, with Armenia increasing cooperation with countries like Turkey and Israel, and Georgia moving closer to the European Union. Armenia's pivot away from Russia is evident in other areas too, such as its recent accession to the International Criminal Court.

The Broader Implications

Armenia's strategic shift has implications beyond its immediate security concerns. It signifies waning Russian influence in the region and highlights the potential for new alliances and partnerships. As Armenia navigates its path towards greater independence and security, the international community watches closely to see how these dynamics will unfold.

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Armenia's geopolitical maneuvering is a testament to the complex interplay of regional powers and the search for stability and security in an unpredictable world. As it seeks new partnerships and alliances, the global community remains keenly interested in the outcomes of these strategic moves.

For more insights and detailed analysis, watch the full video here.

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