Russia-Ukraine War: Strategic Goals and Peace Prospects in 2025

Russia and Ukraine's Strategic Goals

As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fourth year in 2025, both sides remain under pressure to discuss the possibility of a peace deal. However, rhetoric often outpaces reality when it comes to resolving this protracted conflict. To understand the prospects for peace, we must examine the core strategic goals of both Russia and Ukraine, how they have progressed in achieving them, and what this means for potential negotiations.

Russia's Initial Objectives

Russia's strategic objectives extended far beyond Ukraine itself. In December 2021, before the full-scale invasion, Russia proposed an agreement with NATO that included:

• No new NATO members
• Rolling back NATO's military presence to pre-1997 levels
• Restricting deployment of short and intermediate-range missiles
• Barring NATO military activity in Eastern Europe, South Caucasus, and Central Asia

A separate proposed agreement with the United States called for:

• No U.S. nuclear weapons deployed outside U.S. territory
• Eliminating infrastructure for such deployments
• Restricting U.S. troop deployments that could be perceived as threatening to Russia
• Prohibiting U.S. ships and bombers from operating in areas where they could strike Russian territory

Notably, these proposals did not include a pledge from Russia not to invade Ukraine.

Russia's Stated War Aims

When launching the invasion in February 2022, Putin outlined several objectives:

• Demilitarization of Ukraine
• "Denazification" of Ukraine
• Protection of people in the Donbas region

As peace negotiations began in early 2022, Russia's demands included:

• Ukraine not joining military alliances
• No foreign troops or military equipment in Ukraine
• Dropping all sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014
• Demilitarization of Ukraine
• Russian veto power over Ukraine's security guarantees

Ukraine's Objectives

Ukraine's goals, as outlined in Zelensky's 10-point peace plan, include:

1. Territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders
2. Compensation for war damages and punishment of Russian officials under international law
3. Robust security guarantees, either through NATO membership or similar agreements
4. Exchange of all prisoners and displaced civilians

Implicit objectives include maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty and right to choose its own alliances.

Strategic Scorecard: Russia's Achievements and Failures

NATO and the Balance of Power

Russia's invasion has backfired dramatically in terms of its goals regarding NATO:

• Finland and Sweden joined NATO, lengthening Russia's border with the alliance
• NATO's military presence and readiness in Eastern Europe has increased significantly
• The alliance is rearming, with many members committing to higher defense spending
• New long-range weapon systems are being developed by NATO countries

While Russia has succeeded in keeping Ukraine out of NATO for now, it has strengthened the alliance overall and pushed it closer to Russia's borders.

Territorial Control

Russia's territorial gains have been minimal compared to its stated objectives:

• Russian-controlled territory peaked in March 2022 at about 27% of Ukraine
• As of March 2025, Russia controls only 18.3% of Ukraine's territory
• Russia is far from controlling the entirety of its claimed annexed regions
• Ukrainian counteroffensives have pushed Russian forces back in some areas

The slow pace of Russian advances makes it unlikely they will achieve their territorial goals in the foreseeable future.

Demilitarization of Ukraine

Contrary to Russia's goal of demilitarizing Ukraine, the country is now more heavily armed than before the invasion:

• Ukraine has received significant military aid from Western allies
• Ukrainian domestic arms production has ramped up dramatically
• Ukraine now produces its own long-range drones, missiles, and other advanced weaponry
• The Ukrainian military is larger and better equipped than in 2022

Russia's attempt to weaken Ukraine militarily has instead spurred a significant buildup of Ukrainian military capabilities.

Economic and Geopolitical Costs

Russia has incurred severe costs in pursuing this war:

• International sanctions have damaged the Russian economy
• Russia has become increasingly dependent on China
• Russian oil and gas revenues have declined due to lost European markets
• The costs of sustaining the war economy are mounting

These economic strains may eventually force Russia to reconsider its war aims and negotiating position.

Prospects for Peace Negotiations

Several factors complicate the prospects for successful peace negotiations:

Security Guarantees

Ukraine requires robust security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression. However:

• Russia opposes any meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine
• The U.S. is reluctant to provide the level of guarantee Ukraine seeks
• European countries are hesitant to commit troops without U.S. backing

Mismatch Between Russian Demands and Capabilities

Russia continues to make maximalist demands despite its limited battlefield success:

• Russian demands resemble those of a total victor imposing terms on a defeated opponent
• Ukraine and its allies see the situation differently, believing Ukraine can still prevail
• This mismatch makes it difficult to find common ground for negotiations

Ukrainian Public Opinion

Polling indicates that Ukrainians:

• Largely oppose territorial concessions for peace
• Prioritize security guarantees and EU membership over a quick end to occupation
• Believe Russia's goals are existential threats to Ukrainian statehood

This public sentiment limits the Ukrainian government's room for compromise.

Conclusion: A Lose-Lose Scenario?

The current situation resembles a strategic deadlock:

• Russia lacks the military capability to achieve its stated goals
• Ukraine can deny Russia victory but cannot force Russia to change its objectives
• Both sides continue to pay high costs in a war of attrition

Breaking this deadlock may require:

1. Russia significantly revising its demands to align with battlefield realities
2. A dramatic shift in the military balance through a successful offensive by either side
3. External factors forcing one or both sides to reconsider their positions

Until then, the conflict may continue as a costly war of attrition, with both Russia and Ukraine paying a heavy price for a war that neither can win decisively in its current form.

As international actors consider their responses and new offensives potentially loom, the path to peace remains uncertain. What is clear is that this conflict has already extracted an enormous toll on both countries, reshaping the geopolitical landscape in ways that will reverberate for years to come.

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