Ukraine's Victory Plan: A Desperate Gambit Amid Dwindling Western Support

As the conflict in Ukraine grinds on, President Zelensky has unveiled a new "Victory Plan" that appears to be a joint effort with Ukraine's Western backers. However, this plan faces significant obstacles and contradictions when examined closely.

The Current Situation on the Ground

According to pro-Ukrainian sources, Russian forces continue to make slow but steady gains along multiple sections of the front line:

• In southern Donetsk, Russian troops are advancing west after capturing Vuhledar
• Around Avdiivka, Russian forces are pushing toward Toretsk
• In eastern Kharkiv region, a Russian salient has developed near Kupyansk

While the pace of advances appears slow, it has accelerated compared to previous months. Ukraine is struggling with manpower and ammunition shortages that are hampering its ability to hold ground.

Key Points of the "Victory Plan"

President Zelensky presented the following main elements of Ukraine's new Victory Plan to parliament:

1. Inviting Ukraine to join NATO
2. Strengthening Ukrainian defenses, including permission to use long-range Western weapons on Russian territory
3. Deploying a "non-nuclear strategic deterrent package" on Ukrainian soil
4. Joint US-EU protection of Ukraine's natural resources
5. Replacing some US troops in Europe with Ukrainian soldiers post-war

However, there are several issues with these proposals:

NATO Membership Challenges

NATO membership for Ukraine faces significant hurdles:

• NATO lacks sufficient weapons stockpiles to adequately arm Ukraine
• Direct NATO involvement risks wider conflict with Russia
• Many NATO members are hesitant to admit a country actively at war

Weapons and Manpower Shortages

Ukraine's former armed forces chief has acknowledged critical shortfalls:

• Western support has been insufficient to allow Ukraine to fend off Russia alone
• Russia significantly outweighs Ukraine in resources and manpower
• Ukraine faces growing challenges with mobilization and conscription

Nuclear Weapons Rhetoric

Zelensky has suggested Ukraine may pursue nuclear weapons if not admitted to NATO. However:

• Developing a nuclear arsenal would take many years
• It would likely require direct transfers from nuclear-armed states
• This rhetoric increases tensions and risks of escalation

Declining Western Military Aid

Recent US aid packages highlight the limitations of continued support:

• Quantities of key systems like HIMARS rockets and air defense missiles are small
• Production capacity constraints mean supplies will remain limited
• Many advanced Western weapons have performed poorly in Ukraine

The Abrams Tank Debacle

The deployment of US M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine illustrates the challenges:

• Ukrainian crews report issues with armor, engines, and combat effectiveness
• The tanks require extensive maintenance Ukraine struggles to provide
• They are vulnerable to Russian drones and anti-tank weapons

Despite these problems, Australia is now sending 49 additional Abrams tanks. However, it's unclear if Ukraine has trained crews available or if these will simply be used for spare parts.

The Dangerous Path Forward

With conventional options dwindling, Ukraine and its backers face difficult choices:

• Admitting the failure of the proxy war strategy
• Risking direct Western military intervention
• Pursuing some form of negotiated settlement

The idea of establishing a Western-backed "buffer zone" in Ukraine is particularly perilous. It would require significant military deterrence that the West may struggle to maintain long-term.

Ultimately, the collective West is approaching the limits of its ability to sustain this conflict. Acknowledging these limitations and pursuing diplomacy may be the most prudent course, but also the most difficult politically.

Conclusion

Ukraine's new Victory Plan appears to be more of a desperate plea for increased Western support than a viable strategy for ending the conflict. With Russia making slow but steady gains and Western aid reaching its limits, Ukraine and its backers face hard choices in the months ahead. The risk of escalation remains high as options narrow, making this a critical and dangerous phase of the war.

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