Trump's Return to the White House: Implications for Ukraine and European Security

With Donald Trump set to return to the White House in January 2025 for a second term as President of the United States, there is intense speculation about what this could mean for American foreign policy, particularly regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine and relations with NATO allies in Europe. While predicting Trump's exact moves is challenging given his often impulsive decision-making style, examining his past statements and actions provides some indications of potential policy shifts that could have major implications for Ukraine, Russia, and European security more broadly.

Trump's Stance on Ukraine Aid

One of the most immediate concerns is how a second Trump administration would approach US military and financial assistance to Ukraine in its war against Russian aggression. Trump has frequently criticized the scale of American aid to Ukraine, which has totaled nearly $91 billion since Russia's full-scale invasion in early 2022, including about $60 billion in military assistance.

At campaign rallies, Trump has labeled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as "the greatest salesman on earth" for his ability to secure such large aid packages from the US. Trump argues that European nations should be shouldering more of the financial burden for a conflict happening on their doorstep. With aid to Ukraine becoming increasingly unpopular among Republicans, who will control much of the US government for at least the next two years, there is a strong possibility that a second Trump administration would significantly reduce or even completely cut off American assistance to Ukraine.

Trump's Promise to End the War

However, Trump has also famously promised that he will somehow end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office by brokering a deal between Ukrainian and Russian leadership. While the specifics of such a deal remain unclear, there have been some hints from Trump's allies about what it could entail.

J.D. Vance, Trump's selected vice president, outlined a potential peace plan in a September interview that involved:

• Freezing the current front lines and turning them into a demilitarized zone
• Guaranteeing Ukrainian neutrality and blocking NATO membership
• Allowing Ukraine to maintain economic ties with Europe and purchase Western weapons
• Establishing international peacekeepers along the new border

This plan would effectively divide Ukraine between a western and eastern portion, similar to the situation on the Korean peninsula. Critics have blasted it as surrender terms to Russia, while proponents argue it may be the only realistic path to peace at this stage.

Challenges to a Quick Peace Deal

However, there are significant obstacles to quickly implementing any such deal:

1. Russia's demands remain maximalist, with the Kremlin spokesperson recently reiterating Putin's June 2024 peace terms calling for Ukraine to fully withdraw from Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson provinces.

2. Ukraine's own peace demands include a full Russian withdrawal to 2014 borders and NATO membership guarantees.

3. Russia is currently intensifying attacks to seize as much territory as possible before any potential negotiations.

4. Ukraine would be pressed to surrender roughly 20% of its pre-2014 territory.

Given these factors, it's unclear if either Russia or Ukraine would be willing to compromise sufficiently to reach a deal within Trump's promised 24-hour timeframe.

Potential for Unilateral US Withdrawal

If a quick negotiated settlement proves impossible, there are concerns that Trump may decide to unilaterally withdraw US support for Ukraine, similar to how he handled ending America's involvement in Afghanistan. In early 2020, frustrated with the long-running conflict, Trump bypassed the US-backed Afghan government to negotiate directly with the Taliban. He agreed to a full US troop withdrawal by May 2021 in exchange for vague, unenforceable promises from the Taliban.

This hasty deal-making ultimately set the stage for the Afghan government's rapid collapse in 2021 after US forces departed. If Trump takes a similar approach with Ukraine - negotiating directly with Russia while sidelining Ukrainian interests - it could have devastating consequences for Ukraine's war effort and long-term sovereignty.

Implications for NATO and European Defense

Beyond Ukraine, Trump's return to office raises serious questions about the future of the NATO alliance and America's commitment to European security. During his first term, Trump frequently criticized NATO members for not meeting agreed-upon defense spending targets of 2% of GDP. He repeatedly threatened to withdraw the US from NATO altogether out of frustration with what he saw as European free-riding on American protection.

While Trump's threats did spur some NATO countries to increase defense budgets, as of late 2024 there are still 8 member states spending less than 2% of GDP on defense. With the heightened threat environment, many officials now argue the target should be raised to 2.5% or even 3% of GDP.

Although Trump likely cannot unilaterally withdraw the US from NATO due to congressional restrictions, he could still severely undermine America's commitment by:

• Withholding ambassadors from member states
• Closing US military bases and installations in Europe
• Withdrawing troops and equipment
• Refusing to participate in joint exercises

Such moves, combined with ending support for Ukraine, would leave European nations in a precarious position. They would face difficult choices about dramatically increasing their own defense spending and potentially sending troops to Ukraine, all while grappling with high debt levels and generous social welfare systems that leave little room in budgets for major military expansions.

Nuclear Proliferation Risks

If the US security guarantee is seen as unreliable and increased European support doesn't materialize, some nations may conclude that developing their own nuclear weapons is the only way to deter Russian aggression. Ukraine's President Zelenskyy has already hinted at this possibility, stating that Ukraine's only options are "security in NATO or security through nuclear weapons."

Poland, long wary of Russian intentions, would also be a prime candidate to pursue an independent nuclear arsenal if the US nuclear umbrella is withdrawn. Such moves could trigger a new wave of nuclear proliferation with profound consequences for global security.

Balancing Europe and the Indo-Pacific

Trump's approach to Europe and NATO will likely be influenced by growing concerns about China's intentions toward Taiwan. Many in the US military believe America needs to focus more of its power and capabilities in the Indo-Pacific to deter a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, which some expect could come between 2027-2030.

Trump may see reducing America's footprint in Europe as necessary to shift resources to the Pacific. However, this risks emboldening Russia if European nations cannot fill the gap left by departing US forces.

Conclusion

Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2025 could mark a dramatic shift in US policy toward Ukraine and European security more broadly. While the exact contours of Trump's approach remain uncertain, European leaders will need to prepare for the possibility of significantly reduced American support and engagement.

This may require difficult decisions about increasing defense spending, potentially sending troops to Ukraine, and developing new security arrangements if faith in America's commitment to NATO is shaken. How Europe responds to these challenges will play a major role in shaping the continent's security landscape for years to come.

Ultimately, Trump's presidency is likely to accelerate the trend of Europe taking more responsibility for its own defense. Whether European nations can rise to this challenge in the face of economic constraints and domestic political pressures remains to be seen. The decisions made in capitals across Europe in the coming years will have profound implications for the future of the transatlantic alliance and the broader global order.

Article created from: https://youtu.be/wZmB1eCiaNs?si=4vLh_obNOo4gHZXH