Ukraine's Military Collapse Accelerates as Russia Advances

The pace of Ukraine's military collapse is accelerating as Russian forces make significant advances in southern Donbas. Key developments include:

Situation in Southern Donbas

Fall of Ugledar

The capture of Ugledar by Russian forces has opened up new opportunities for further advances. The 72nd Ukrainian Brigade that defended Ugledar for years has been largely destroyed, with remnants being thrown back into battle without rest or reinforcements. The 79th Brigade that fought in Novomikhailovka and Konstantinovka is also exhausted but continues fighting.

Russian Advances Near Kurakhovo

Russian forces have captured fortifications around several villages north of Kurakhovo, including Antonovka, Elizavetovka, Keramik and Novoukrainka. There are reports of Russians entering some of these villages and beginning encirclement operations around Kurakhovo itself.

Potential Encirclement Near Kurakhovo

A significant Ukrainian force of potentially 3,000-5,000 troops faces encirclement in a cluster of villages northeast of Kurakhovo, including Alexandropol, Novoselka, Katerynivka and others. Russian forces have tightened their grip by capturing nearby villages and controlling key roads.

Situation in Selydove

Selydove is at high risk of encirclement, with Russians present in the eastern part of the city and advancing from the north and south. Supply lines to Selydove are close to being cut.

Ukrainian Leadership Issues

Zelensky's Focus on Northern Front

President Zelensky appears primarily focused on the northern front near Sumy and Kharkiv, visiting Sumy and transferring troops and resources to this area. This may be due to psychological factors related to his experience early in the war.

Potential Leadership Shakeup

There are reports of plans to dismiss Defense Minister Umerov and possibly Military Intelligence Chief Budanov, though this may be delayed until after the US election due to American objections.

Lack of Coherent Strategy

There does not appear to be a clear Ukrainian strategy for dealing with the deteriorating situation in southern Donbas. Troops continue to be ordered to hold untenable positions rather than conducting organized withdrawals.

Call for Peace Negotiations

Historian Jeffrey Roberts argues Ukraine faces a choice between seeking a negotiated peace now or fighting to total defeat. He suggests Ukraine should pursue an armistice similar to Germany in 1918, which would allow the country to survive rather than face complete destruction.

Roberts contends the terms Russia has offered are more generous than what Germany received in the Treaty of Versailles. Ukraine could potentially retain independence and eventually rebuild, whereas continuing to fight risks a "blood sacrifice" and total collapse.

For such negotiations to succeed, Western powers would likely need to publicly support the process and help the Ukrainian government overcome hardline nationalist opposition to any concessions.

Conclusion

The military situation for Ukraine continues to deteriorate rapidly, especially in southern Donbas. Without a major change in strategy or outside intervention, a total collapse of Ukrainian defenses in this region appears increasingly likely in the coming weeks and months. Western leaders face a critical choice of whether to continue supporting an increasingly hopeless military struggle or to push for a negotiated settlement while Ukraine still retains some leverage.

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