Trump's Middle East Strategy: Challenges and Opportunities in a Second Term

Trump's Return and Its Implications for US Middle East Policy

With Donald Trump potentially returning to the White House, there is much speculation about how US policy towards the Middle East may shift. Trump's first term saw some significant impacts in the region, both positive and negative from the perspective of American interests. As we look ahead to a possible second Trump administration, several key issues and dynamics are worth examining.

The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Trump has claimed credit for brokering the recent ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas. While the Trump team did play a role, their impact was likely more limited than they have claimed. Both Israel and Hamas had reached a kind of "hurting stalemate" where neither side was making significant gains. The prospect of Trump returning to office may have given both sides a way to make difficult concessions while blaming external pressure.

Looking ahead, Trump has signaled he wants to pursue further normalization between Israel and Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia. However, the recent Gaza war has likely increased the price Saudi Arabia would demand for such a deal. A key question is whether Trump would be willing to push Israel to make concessions on Palestinian statehood to achieve a broader regional agreement.

There are some concerning early signals from Trump's team on this front. His nominated ambassador to Israel has voiced skepticism about a two-state solution. Trump also quickly moved to remove sanctions on Israeli settlers engaged in violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. These moves suggest the administration may not prioritize Palestinian concerns or push Israel very hard on concessions.

At the same time, Trump's desire for a major diplomatic achievement could potentially lead him to pressure Israel if he sees a real opportunity for a deal with Saudi Arabia. Much may depend on how much time and political capital Trump is willing to invest in Middle East diplomacy versus other priorities like immigration and China policy.

Iran Policy

Trump's approach to Iran remains a major question mark. He is likely to take a very tough line, potentially pursuing an even more aggressive "maximum pressure" campaign than in his first term. However, it's unclear if the goal will be coercion to achieve a new nuclear deal, or simply punitive action in response to Iran's attempts to assassinate Trump.

The elimination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in Trump's first term was seen as a significant blow to Iran's regional influence. However, Trump also failed to respond forcefully to Iranian attacks on Saudi oil facilities, which alarmed US allies in the region.

A key issue to watch will be whether Trump pursues sustained, well-implemented strategies on Iran, or continues with more episodic, unpredictable actions. Achieving any meaningful outcomes, whether a new nuclear deal or sustained rollback of Iran's regional influence, will require the kind of long-term strategic approach that was often lacking in Trump's first term.

Regional Partnerships and US Military Presence

Trump has indicated he wants to reduce US military involvement in the Middle East. However, this creates openings for other powers like China and Russia to expand their influence. It also raises concerns among US partners about America's reliability.

One approach the Trump team may pursue is to focus on building partner capacity, both militarily and economically. This could involve expanding frameworks for cooperation beyond just the military realm into areas like technology and energy.

A key question will be the future of the US troop presence in places like Syria and Iraq. Trump repeatedly tried to withdraw forces in his first term but was often constrained by advisors. It's unclear if his new team will be able to push back as effectively if Trump again seeks rapid troop withdrawals.

The US presence in Syria in particular has major implications for the future of that country and the balance of power between Turkey, the Assad regime, and Kurdish forces. A US withdrawal could force the Kurds to quickly cut deals with Damascus and Ankara from a position of weakness.

The Houthi Threat in Yemen

The ongoing attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen on shipping in the Red Sea present another challenge. The Trump administration's initial instinct may be to try to stay out of this conflict. However, the economic impacts and threat to freedom of navigation may force greater US involvement.

One option could be to expand the current multinational maritime security operation and pressure regional partners like Egypt and Saudi Arabia to contribute more. The administration may also consider more aggressive strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, going beyond just intercepting missiles to degrading their military capabilities.

Bahrain and the Gulf

The Trump administration will need to decide how to approach the recent US-Bahrain security agreement. This deal was seen by some as a potential model for a US-Saudi defense pact. The economic and technological cooperation aspects may appeal to Trump's transactional instincts.

However, the security commitments may be viewed more skeptically if Trump seeks to reduce the US regional footprint. Bahrain's hosting of the US Fifth Fleet could be seen as either a valuable asset or a potential liability depending on the administration's overall strategic approach.

Libya and North Africa

Libya has reached a relative stalemate between competing factions. Absent a major change in the situation, the Trump administration is likely to view Libya as not directly impacting core US interests and thus not a priority for US engagement.

This hands-off approach could extend to North Africa more broadly, with the administration likely leaving most diplomatic heavy lifting on these issues to European partners.

Key Factors Shaping Trump's Approach

Several overarching factors are likely to influence how a second Trump administration approaches the Middle East:

Unpredictability and Personalized Diplomacy

Trump's unpredictable, personality-driven approach to foreign policy is likely to continue. This creates both risks and potential opportunities. Trump may be willing to break with conventional wisdom and long-standing US positions in pursuit of deals. However, it also makes it difficult for allies and adversaries alike to engage in long-term planning.

Desire for Visible Wins

Trump will likely prioritize achievements that he can tout as major personal diplomatic victories. This could create openings for breakthroughs on issues like Israeli-Arab normalization. However, it may also lead to superficial "deals" that don't address underlying conflicts.

Skepticism of US Military Interventions

Trump has consistently voiced skepticism about US military interventions and nation-building efforts in the Middle East. This could accelerate the trend of reducing the US military footprint in the region. However, it may conflict with other goals like countering Iran or protecting US allies.

Transactional Approach to Alliances

Trump is likely to continue viewing alliances in very transactional terms, demanding more from partners in return for US security guarantees. This could strain relationships with long-standing allies but may also push regional states to take on more responsibility for their own security.

Focus on Domestic Priorities

Trump's focus on domestic issues like immigration may limit the attention and resources devoted to Middle East policy. However, developments in the region that impact oil prices or are seen as affecting US prestige could quickly force greater engagement.

Challenges and Opportunities

A second Trump term presents both risks and potential opportunities for US interests in the Middle East:

Challenges:

• Alienating allies and partners through unpredictable policies and demands for greater burden-sharing
• Creating power vacuums through hasty military withdrawals that could be exploited by adversaries
• Escalating tensions with Iran in ways that could lead to wider regional conflict
• Undermining prospects for Israeli-Palestinian peace by giving Israel a "blank check"
• Losing influence to China and Russia in key areas like energy and arms sales

Opportunities:

• Brokering further normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states
• Pressuring Iran into a more comprehensive agreement on its nuclear program and regional activities
• Pushing regional partners to take on greater responsibility for their own security
• Reducing the financial and military burdens of US regional commitments
• Using unorthodox diplomacy to break long-standing deadlocks on issues like Israeli-Palestinian peace

Conclusion

Predicting exactly how a second Trump administration would approach the Middle East is challenging given the president's unpredictable nature and tendency to make impulsive decisions. However, several broad trends seem likely:

1. A desire to reduce direct US military involvement while maintaining influence through other means
2. A highly transactional approach to alliances and partnerships
3. Aggressive policies toward Iran, potentially escalating tensions
4. Prioritizing Israeli-Arab normalization over Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts
5. Episodic, personality-driven diplomacy rather than sustained strategic approaches

Ultimately, much will depend on how global and domestic events unfold and which advisors are able to shape Trump's thinking on key issues. Regional actors will need to prepare for a wide range of potential US policy shifts while looking for opportunities to advance their interests with a mercurial but deal-oriented American president.

The Middle East has changed significantly since Trump's first term. Whether his unorthodox approach can effectively navigate this new landscape remains to be seen. What is clear is that a second Trump presidency would likely bring major changes to America's role in this critical region.

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