Ukraine's Military Crumbles as Western Media Admits Deteriorating Situation

As 2024 draws to a close, the situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate rapidly for Kiev and its Western backers. Recent reports from mainstream media outlets and think tanks paint an increasingly grim picture of Ukraine's military capabilities and territorial control.

Admissions of Ukraine's Declining Position

A CNN article titled "Bad news mounts for Ukraine across the front lines" provides a stark assessment of the current state of the conflict. The piece acknowledges that "Moscow seems to have the advantage" and is "making gains at key spots along the front line of eastern and southeastern Ukraine."

Even pro-Ukrainian sources like the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are being forced to admit Russia's battlefield successes. An ISW analyst cited by CNN states that "Russia has the initiative across the front lines right now" and has "successfully exploited tactical gains."

Key Battlegrounds

Several areas are highlighted as particularly concerning for Ukrainian forces:

Kupyansk

The northeastern city of Kupyansk, which Ukraine recaptured in September 2022, is once again "at risk of falling to Russia" according to CNN. Russian forces are reportedly operating on the outskirts of the city, threatening to cut off a major Ukrainian supply route.

Avdiivka

Further south, the town of Avdiivka near Donetsk has been surrounded on three sides by Russian forces for months. Ukrainian President Zelensky recently called it "the most difficult area of the front line."

Bakhmut

While not specifically mentioned in the CNN piece, other reports indicate Russian forces continue to make gains around Bakhmut, which fell to Russia earlier in 2024 after months of intense fighting.

Manpower and Equipment Shortages

A key factor in Ukraine's declining position is its ongoing manpower crisis. The CNN article notes that "Ukraine has always been on the back foot when it comes to material and manpower" compared to Russia.

This echoes assessments from other Western sources. The UK Ministry of Defense reported in September that Russia is successfully recruiting around 30,000 new troops per month. In contrast, Ukraine is struggling to find enough new recruits to replace its losses.

Equipment shortages are also taking their toll. The ISW claims Russia has lost large amounts of tanks and armored vehicles, but Ukraine's losses have been even more severe given its smaller starting inventory and limited ability to produce or acquire replacements.

Air Defense Depletion

One area of particular concern is Ukraine's dwindling air defense capabilities. Constant Russian missile and drone strikes have steadily eroded Ukraine's ability to protect its cities and critical infrastructure.

The ISW notes that Russia is now using decoy drones alongside actual attack drones to "confuse and exhaust Ukrainian air defenses." With Western stockpiles of air defense systems and missiles running low, Ukraine faces an increasingly difficult task in defending its airspace.

Western Support Wavering

As Ukraine's position deteriorates, there are signs that Western resolve to continue supporting Kiev may be weakening. The incoming Trump administration in the US has signaled it may seek to end the conflict quickly rather than committing to indefinite support.

Leaked documents published by The Grayzone suggest British military and intelligence officials are scrambling to find ways to keep Ukraine fighting "at all costs" even as mainstream support declines. This includes proposals for covert operations and the use of private military contractors to avoid official NATO involvement.

Russian Advances Continue

Despite claims of heavy Russian losses, Moscow's forces continue to make steady progress along multiple sections of the front. The ISW's own maps show Russian advances near:

• Kupyansk
• Lyman
• Bakhmut
• Avdiivka
• Marinka

Even the heavily pro-Ukrainian LiveUAMap shows Russian forces pushing forward in these areas over recent weeks and months.

Long-Term Trajectory

While the pace of Russian advances remains relatively slow, the overall trajectory of the conflict appears increasingly clear. Ukraine lacks the manpower and equipment to mount major counteroffensives, while Russia maintains the initiative and continues to grind forward.

Barring a major change in Western support or Russian strategy, it seems likely this trend will continue into 2025. Ukraine faces difficult choices about how long it can sustain a war of attrition given its resource constraints.

Implications for Western Policy

As the situation in Ukraine worsens, Western policymakers face hard decisions about their long-term strategy:

1. Continue current levels of support in hopes of a Ukrainian turnaround
2. Significantly escalate involvement, risking direct conflict with Russia
3. Seek a negotiated settlement, likely on terms favorable to Moscow
4. Gradually disengage, leaving Ukraine to fend for itself

None of these options are particularly appealing from a Western perspective. However, the current approach of limited support seems increasingly unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

Conclusion

While the ultimate outcome remains uncertain, recent developments and admissions from Western sources paint a bleak picture of Ukraine's current position. Russia maintains the initiative on the battlefield and shows no signs of abandoning its objectives in Ukraine.

As 2025 approaches, Kiev and its backers face difficult decisions about how long they can sustain a conflict that appears to be trending steadily in Moscow's favor. The choices made in the coming months may well determine the future of Ukraine and the broader geopolitical balance in Eastern Europe.

Article created from: https://youtu.be/aXaAcmNaKqk?feature=shared