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Start for freeRecent developments indicate plans for a call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in the coming days or weeks, likely before Trump's inauguration on January 20th. This suggests urgency to establish direct contact and open lines of communication between the incoming US administration and Russia.
Key points:
Potential Topics for Trump-Putin Call
- Opening lines of communication between US and Russian governments
- Arranging visits by Trump administration officials to Moscow
- Planning for a potential in-person summit meeting
Challenges for US-Russia Relations
- Russians downplaying prospects for major improvement in relations
- Lingering effects of sanctions and confrontation during Trump's first term
- Differing views on resolving the Ukraine conflict
Other Important Discussion Topics
- Iran's nuclear program and Russia-Iran partnership
- North Korea's military buildup and nuclear capabilities
- Russia-China relations
- Potential arms control proposals
Ukraine Situation
- Ukrainians and Russians both seen as not ready for peace talks
- Trump administration may try to broker negotiations for 100 days to 6 months
- If unsuccessful, US likely to reduce support for Ukraine
Europe's Inability to Replace US Aid
- European defense industries and procurement practices in disarray
- Economic crises limiting ability to increase defense spending
- Depleted weapons stockpiles from supporting Ukraine
- No realistic way for Europe to take over from US in supporting Ukraine
Battlefield Developments
- Reports of Ukrainian defense collapsing in some areas like Avdiivka
- Russians making advances and capturing territory
- Signs of cascading collapse across Ukrainian front lines
Middle East Situation
- New details on Assad's fall in Syria
- Assad's overconfidence and misreading of situation contributed to collapse
- Reliance on Arab allies over Russia/Iran proved misguided
The planned Trump-Putin call signals a potential shift in US-Russia relations, but major obstacles remain to significantly improving ties or resolving the Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, Europe lacks the capacity to maintain Ukraine support if the US pulls back, and the battlefield situation continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces.
Trump Administration's Approach
The Trump team appears to be laying groundwork for potentially reducing US involvement in Ukraine:
- Planning direct communication with Putin early on
- Expressing skepticism about Ukraine regaining lost territory
- Suggesting 100 day to 6 month timeframe for brokering negotiations
- Hinting at walking away if progress isn't made
This approach differs from the Biden administration's more open-ended support for Ukraine. Trump seems inclined to set a timeline and reassess US involvement if the situation doesn't improve.
Challenges for Negotiations
Several factors make successful negotiations difficult:
- Russia's maximalist demands that Ukraine likely won't accept
- Ukraine's refusal to cede any territory
- Influence of ultranationalist groups in Ukraine opposing compromise
- US inability to offer concessions Russia seeks without domestic backlash
Without major shifts in position from key parties, a negotiated settlement remains unlikely in the near-term.
Europe's Defense Capabilities
The article highlights severe limitations in Europe's ability to increase military support for Ukraine:
- Defense industries struggling to ramp up production
- Economic crises constraining defense budgets
- Depleted weapons stockpiles from previous Ukraine aid
- Need to rebuild own militaries before increasing foreign aid
These factors make it unrealistic for Europe to maintain Ukraine support at current levels if the US reduces involvement.
Battlefield Situation
Recent developments show continued Ukrainian losses:
- Reports of defense collapsing in Avdiivka
- Russians capturing key positions and infrastructure
- Advances by Russian forces in multiple areas
- Signs of accelerating Ukrainian withdrawals
This deteriorating situation likely factors into the Trump team's calculations about future US policy.
Implications
The combination of planned US-Russia talks, Europe's military limitations, and Ukraine's battlefield losses points to a potential inflection point in the conflict. If the US signals reduced support and Europe can't fill the gap, Ukraine may face increasing pressure to seek a negotiated settlement - even on unfavorable terms.
However, domestic politics in Ukraine and entrenched positions on all sides make a near-term resolution unlikely. The situation remains fluid, with the potential for unexpected developments to shift the trajectory of the conflict.
Historical Context: Syria's Collapse
The article draws parallels to the fall of Assad's government in Syria, highlighting how leadership decisions and misreading of the situation can lead to rapid collapse:
- Assad's overconfidence in his military's capabilities
- Misplaced trust in promises of support from Arab allies
- Ignoring warnings from Russia and Iran about military weaknesses
- Loss of credibility leading to cascading defections and surrenders
This example serves as a cautionary tale about how quickly a seemingly stable situation can unravel when key players lose faith in leadership.
Conclusion
The planned Trump-Putin call represents a potentially significant shift in US policy towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While direct communication between leaders is generally positive, the underlying challenges to resolving the conflict remain immense. Europe's inability to replace US support puts Ukraine in an increasingly precarious position if American aid is reduced.
The coming months will likely prove pivotal in determining the long-term trajectory of the conflict. All parties involved face difficult choices with far-reaching consequences for regional stability and the global balance of power.
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