Russia's Oresnik Missile: Changing the Game in Ukraine

The Oresnik Missile: A New Chapter in the Ukraine Conflict

The recent deployment of Russia's Oresnik intermediate-range ballistic missile in eastern Ukraine has marked a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. This development represents a major shift in the dynamics of what began as a proxy war against Russia in 2014. The missile's capabilities offer Russia a serious non-nuclear means of striking targets anywhere in Europe, potentially without sufficient defense from the collective West.

Historical Context

To understand the full implications of this development, we must look back to the events of 2014. The United States openly supported the overthrow of Ukraine's elected government, installing an anti-Russian regime that immediately pursued policies antagonistic to Russian interests. This move was particularly provocative given Ukraine's large Russian-speaking population, many of whom identify as ethnically Russian.

The goal was to create a strategic dilemma for Russia on its borders, mirroring previous efforts in Georgia from 2003 to 2008. However, the scale of the Ukraine operation was significantly larger.

The Oresnik Missile's Impact

The introduction of the Oresnik missile into the conflict has several key implications:

1. Deterrence: It serves as a powerful deterrent against further Western encroachment.
2. Military Dominance: The missile is the latest demonstration of Russia's military and escalatory dominance in the ongoing proxy war.
3. Complementary Capability: While not a "wonder weapon," it complements Russia's range of other military capabilities.

Russia's Military Preparedness

Russia's success in Ukraine is not solely due to any single weapon system. Instead, it's the result of decades of preparation and investment in national defense. This strategy included:

• Development and large-scale production of both simple and advanced weapons
• Maintenance of surplus production capacity across numerous arms production facilities
• Prioritization of state needs over profit generation in the arms industry

This approach has allowed Russia to produce the necessary quantity and quality of military equipment required for a large-scale, prolonged conflict.

The West's Military-Industrial Crisis

In contrast to Russia's preparedness, the collective West is facing a growing military-industrial crisis:

• Lack of excess production capacity
• Skilled labor shortages
• Difficulties in meeting even modest production targets

These issues span various areas of production, from air defense missiles to artillery shells. The root of this problem lies in the West's education system, which has failed to produce enough skilled labor to meet these industrial needs.

Escalation and Consequences

Washington's determination to prevail in Ukraine has led to a steady escalation of the conflict:

1. 2014: Overthrow of Ukraine's elected government
2. 2019: Arming of Ukrainian forces
3. 2022 onwards: Full-spectrum sanctions on Russia
4. Recent: Transfer of artillery, tanks, aircraft, and long-range missiles
5. Latest: Authorization of strikes into Russian territory

Each escalation represents an attempt by Washington and its European allies to inflict prohibitive costs on Russia. However, as each attempt falls short, additional escalations are devised.

Wider Geopolitical Effects

Contrary to Western hopes, these escalations have not succeeded in overextending Russia. Instead, they appear to be bolstering the shift from US-led unipolarity towards multipolarity. The more the US resorts to destructive measures, the more it demonstrates to the world the dangers it poses to global peace, stability, and prosperity.

Narrowing Options for the West

As the conflict progresses, the West's options for escalation are narrowing:

• Deployment of Western troops in Ukraine would face the same challenges as Ukrainian forces
• The Oresnik missile provides Russia with a non-nuclear means of striking targets across Europe
• Western air and missile defenses struggle to intercept sophisticated Russian missiles

The Dilemma of Resource Allocation

The West now faces a critical dilemma in allocating its limited military resources. Committing significant forces to a direct conflict with Russia in Ukraine would exhaust military power intended for potential conflicts with Iran or China. This situation forces the US to choose where to commit its forces and attempt to maintain primacy.

The Fundamental Flaws in the Western System

The conflict in Ukraine has exposed fundamental flaws in the collective West's system:

• Inability to collectively overpower Russia
• Exhaustion of resources in the attempt
• Limited capacity to face a more capable opponent like China

Even if the US shifts the burden of intervention in Ukraine to its European allies, it still faces a fundamental inability to produce the arms and ammunition required for a similar conflict in the Asia-Pacific region.

The Role of Nuclear Deterrence

The introduction of the Oresnik missile, along with the growing disparity in military-industrial capacity, leaves the West with limited options:

1. Resort to nuclear weapons
2. Reformulate a more realistic and constructive foreign policy

However, given that Russia and China possess their own large and growing nuclear stockpiles, the use of nuclear weapons is not a viable option for the West.

The Need for a New Approach

The current situation calls for a reevaluation of Western foreign policy. The notion of mutually assured destruction must be fully impressed upon the West, as it was during the Cold War. This reintroduction of fear of personal consequences for policymakers may lead to more rational decision-making.

The Path Forward

Ultimately, for the collective West, pursuing global primacy is becoming increasingly irrational and unobtainable. Adopting a constructive role in a multipolar world is truly in the best interest of Western nations and their populations.

The rest of the world must continue to work towards demonstrating this reality to Western powers while also impressing upon Western populations the benefits of a more balanced global order. This approach may help apply pressure from both the top and bottom of Western societies towards a more constructive foreign policy.

Conclusion

The deployment of Russia's Oresnik missile in Ukraine represents a significant turning point in the ongoing conflict. It highlights the growing military capabilities of Russia and the narrowing options available to Western powers. As the situation continues to evolve, it becomes increasingly clear that a reevaluation of Western foreign policy is necessary.

The path forward requires a shift away from the pursuit of global primacy towards a more balanced, multipolar world order. This transition will not be easy, but it is becoming increasingly evident that it is the most rational and constructive approach for all parties involved.

As we continue to monitor these developments, it is crucial to remain vigilant and open to new information. The geopolitical landscape is constantly shifting, and staying informed is key to understanding the complex dynamics at play in this ongoing conflict.

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