Syria's Military Collapse and Ukraine's Desperate Situation

The situation in Syria continues to be extremely fluid, with vast amounts of information pouring out in the media space. Much of this information is likely untrue, making it difficult to get a clear sense of what is actually happening on the ground.

A meeting is due to take place in Doha, Qatar between the foreign ministers of Iran, Russia and Turkey. While this meeting has been much discussed, it's important to note that at this point in the conflict, events on the ground will dictate outcomes more than diplomatic discussions.

Erdogan's Shifting Position

Perhaps the most concerning development for the Syrian government was comments made by Turkish President Erdogan. For the first time, Erdogan seemed to endorse the idea of a jihadi advance towards Damascus itself. This marks a shift from his previous position of not disputing Assad's legitimacy.

Erdogan had been complaining that his repeated attempts to meet with Assad over the past year have gone unheeded. However, he now appears open to the idea of jihadi forces advancing on Damascus to overthrow the Assad government.

This shift likely occurred due to the unexpected collapse of Syrian military resistance in northwest Syria. As the situation on the ground has changed dramatically, Erdogan seems to be reverting to earlier plans for regime change in Damascus.

Allies Distancing Themselves from Assad

As Erdogan has become encouraged by Syrian military weakness, Assad's allies have become increasingly dismayed and are starting to distance themselves:

• Iraq has reversed plans to send Shia militia forces into Syria to reinforce Assad's troops. They will now only take positions on the Iraq-Syria border.

• Hezbollah in Lebanon has made statements supporting Assad, but has not committed to redeploying troops to Syria.

• There are unconfirmed reports of Iran pulling its forces out of Syria, though Iranian authorities have denied this.

Russia's Position

There are conflicting signals about Russia's stance:

• A Bloomberg article claimed Putin is furious about the Syrian Army's failure to resist jihadi fighters and has decided not to support Syria further. However, this report relies on anonymous sources and may not be reliable.

• Russian nationalist websites and military-linked Telegram channels do express fury at the Syrian Army's perceived failure.

• However, Russia is still active in Syria - sending Wagner fighters to Damascus, appointing a new commander, and continuing air force operations.

• The Russian government has been conspicuously silent about events in Syria, which may be more concerning for Assad than media reports.

Ultimately, Russia's decision likely depends on whether the Syrian Army can consolidate and successfully resist in the coming days. If the collapse continues, those in Moscow arguing to cut losses in Syria may prevail.

The Military Situation

The Syrian government appears to be consolidating forces around Damascus, Homs and coastal regions, abandoning some areas like Deir ez-Zor. If this consolidation is successful and resistance improves, it could change calculations in Moscow, Ankara and Tehran.

However, if the collapse continues, Syria's allies are unlikely to come to its rescue if they conclude Syria cannot defend itself. Assad's uncompromising position and refusal to meet with Erdogan has exasperated allies like Iran and Russia.

Ukraine Conflict Update

Turning to Ukraine, there have been significant further Russian advances on multiple fronts. Ukrainian soldiers and officials are making increasingly desperate statements about the situation:

• A Ukrainian MP serving in the 109th Battalion warned of the possibility of losing a chain of critical fortified towns over the next couple weeks.

• Former president Poroshenko criticized Ukraine's "meat assaults" (human wave attacks) and called for establishing elaborate defensive lines instead.

• Other Ukrainian MPs have warned of the possibility of a full-scale collapse in the coming months.

Meanwhile, Western leaders continue to discuss ways to fund and support Ukraine, seemingly disconnected from the realities on the ground. There is little indication of serious efforts to negotiate with Russia.

Putin's Visit to Belarus

Putin recently visited Belarus and met with President Lukashenko. They reached numerous economic agreements, indicating Belarus and Russia are essentially becoming a single economic space again.

Importantly, Putin agreed to deploy the new Sarmat missile system to Belarus starting in late 2025. This shows Russia is moving forward with production and deployment of this powerful new weapon.

Developments in Romania and France

In Romania, authorities annulled the results of the first round of presidential elections after a pro-Russian candidate unexpectedly came in first. This extraordinary move, justified by claims of Russian meddling on TikTok, is likely to cause significant anger and instability.

In France, parliament voted down the new government appointed by President Macron. This reflects the ongoing political crisis stemming from Macron's centrist policies being rejected by voters who have shifted to the right and left. The situation is creating permanent instability in France.

Both cases demonstrate how the EU center is fostering instability by refusing to allow "heretical" views on Russia and Ukraine to gain power, even when widely supported by voters. This approach is not sustainable and is deepening Europe's crisis.

Conclusion

The situations in Syria and Ukraine continue to deteriorate rapidly from a military perspective. Meanwhile, political instability is growing in key European countries like Romania and France. These developments all stem in part from the broader crisis between Russia and the West over Ukraine.

Any hope that Russia will face an internal crisis forcing it to change course in Ukraine appears illusory. The West, particularly Europe, should hope for a negotiated settlement, as the current trajectory is creating deepening instability across multiple fronts.

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