Russia's Gains in Ukraine: A 10x Increase and Potential Negotiations

Russia's Territorial Gains Accelerate in Ukraine

Recent data analysis reveals a significant acceleration in Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine compared to the previous year. When comparing January 2024 to January 2025, Russia's advances have increased by a factor of 8-13 times, depending on the source:

• According to Kilm Squares data, Russia gained 40 km2 in January 2024 compared to 325 km2 in January 2025 - an 8x increase
• War Mappa shows a 33.1 km2 gain in January 2024 vs 427 km2 in January 2025 - nearly a 13x increase

This stark year-over-year comparison provides important context beyond just month-to-month changes, which can be affected by seasonal factors. The data suggests Russia has become significantly more effective in its offensive operations over the past year.

Key Battleground Updates

Avdiivka Front

Russian forces continue to make incremental gains around Avdiivka:

• Advances reported in the center of Avdiivka
• Russian control expanded in Stepove
• Potential Russian advances south towards Severne, though exact control unclear
• Ukrainian sources report 70% of Stepove under Russian control

The situation appears fluid, with Russian forces slowly tightening the encirclement of Ukrainian positions. This creates dangerous pockets for Ukrainian defenders and stretches their limited manpower.

Oskil River Crossing

Russian forces have successfully established a bridgehead across the Oskil River southwest of Kupyansk:

• Crossing confirmed by multiple sources
• Indicates Russian ability to overcome water obstacles
• Highlights potential Ukrainian reserve shortages to counter such breakthroughs
• Could allow further Russian advances towards Kharkiv region

This development is concerning for Ukrainian defenses, as river crossings are typically difficult operations to execute. The inability to quickly seal off the bridgehead suggests Ukraine may lack sufficient reserves in the area.

Kherson Region

Ukraine maintains its bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson, but faces significant logistical challenges:

• Increased Russian long-range strikes on Ukrainian supply routes and staging areas
• Difficult medical evacuation and resupply for Ukrainian forces
• Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasizes importance of Kherson operation for future negotiations

While Ukraine has held this position for 6 months, the sustainability of the bridgehead remains questionable given the logistical difficulties.

Potential Peace Negotiations

Reports indicate the US may unveil a plan to end the conflict, with key points including:

• Freezing the conflict along current lines
• Security guarantees for Ukraine
• Ukrainian elections
• US access to Ukraine's critical minerals

However, significant obstacles remain:

• Ukraine seeks NATO membership, which Russia opposes
• Current Ukrainian law prohibits negotiations with Putin
• Russia questions Zelensky's legitimacy as a negotiating partner
• Territorial disputes, especially regarding occupied areas

Given the vast differences in positions, successful negotiations appear unlikely in the near term. Both sides would face domestic opposition to major concessions.

Ukrainian Military Restructuring

Ukraine is reportedly undertaking a significant restructuring of its armed forces:

• Creating 6 corps, each controlling 5 combat brigades
• Each corps to have 12,000-15,000 personnel and 700-900 heavy weapons
• Aims to improve coordination between infantry, artillery, and support units
• Modeled on Western divisional structure for more independent operations

This reorganization could potentially address command issues and improve battlefield effectiveness. However, implementing such changes during active combat operations presents significant challenges.

Analysis and Outlook

The data showing Russia's accelerated territorial gains is concerning for Ukraine and its Western backers. It suggests that despite heavy losses, Russia has adapted its tactics and improved its offensive capabilities over the past year.

Ukraine faces multiple challenges:

1. Manpower shortages limiting its ability to defend along the entire front
2. Logistical difficulties, especially in areas like the Kherson bridgehead
3. Ongoing reorganization of its military structure during active combat
4. Uncertainty about future Western military aid

Meanwhile, Russia appears to be slowly but steadily advancing in key areas like Avdiivka and establishing new bridgeheads for potential future offensives.

The prospects for a negotiated settlement remain dim given the vast differences in positions between Ukraine and Russia. Neither side appears ready to make the concessions necessary for serious talks to begin.

Barring a major shift in the military situation or dramatic change in political positions, the conflict is likely to continue grinding on. Russia currently holds the initiative, but Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense with Western support will be crucial in determining the long-term trajectory of the war.

Continued monitoring of territorial changes, especially year-over-year comparisons, will be important to assess the overall direction of the conflict. Additionally, the success of Ukraine's military restructuring efforts and its ability to address manpower shortages will be key factors to watch in the coming months.

Article created from: https://youtu.be/MWmjLmLUY-c?feature=shared