Putin's Mongolia Visit and Ukraine War Update

Putin's Visit to Mongolia

President Putin recently visited Mongolia, stopping in the Russian republic of Tuva on the way. This visit comes as Mongolia ratified the Rome Statute, theoretically accepting the authority of the International Criminal Court which has issued an arrest warrant for Putin. However, Mongolia has no intention of arresting Putin, as the country's economic future depends on good relations with Russia and China.

Putin's visit to Mongolia is particularly important as he is likely negotiating the terms for the new Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline that will send gas from Russia to China via Mongolia. This is a major project that will provide significant transit fees to support Mongolia's economic development.

Putin's Comments on Ukraine

During his stop in Tuva, Putin made some notable comments about the situation in Ukraine in response to a student's question:

"We are defending both the people who live in Donbass and our common future, the future of Russia, because we cannot allow hostile structures to be created right next to us that harbor aggressive plans against our country and constantly try to destabilize the Russian Federation."

Putin reiterated that Russia is open to peace talks, but set a high bar for negotiations:

"We have always advocated a peaceful settlement... Nevertheless, we must deal with these bandits who have entered the territory of the Russian Federation."

He suggested that once the Ukrainian counteroffensive fails, there may be more talk of negotiations from Ukraine. However, Putin does not believe a negotiated solution is likely with the current Ukrainian government, as their existence depends on prolonging the war.

Situation on the Battlefronts

Bakhmut Area

Russian forces are making significant gains around Bakhmut:

• Russian troops have closed to within 6 miles of Bakhmut
• They have bypassed Ukrainian forces between Klishchiivka and the Siverskyi Donets river
• This has created an exposed Ukrainian salient that could become a trap for hundreds of Ukrainian troops
• Elements of at least 4 Ukrainian brigades are at risk of encirclement south of Bakhmut

The Ukrainians may need to retreat from this area to avoid encirclement, ceding about 30 square kilometers to Russian forces.

Avdiivka Area

Russian forces are also making progress around Avdiivka:

• Ukrainian defenses around Avdiivka appear to be collapsing
• Russians have cut off a key Ukrainian supply route to Avdiivka
• They have broken into the village of Vodiane west of Avdiivka
• Russians are storming the village of Pervomaiske, further cutting off Ukrainian supply lines
• Avdiivka is now in a "semi-circle" with Russian forces closing in from multiple directions

The fall of Avdiivka seems likely within days or weeks unless Ukrainian forces withdraw quickly.

Other Areas

• Russians continue to make advances north of Toretsk
• Fighting continues in central Chasiv Yar with Russians pushing deeper into the town
• In Kupyansk, Ukrainians continue attacks but are being repelled with heavy losses
• Russians claim to have destroyed 3 HIMARS launchers and air defense systems in Kupyansk area

Analysis

The overall momentum on the battlefield continues to shift against Ukrainian forces. As they try to stabilize one area, others are collapsing. The Russian advance outside Bakhmut threatens to cut off significant Ukrainian forces.

Putin does not seem to expect negotiations to resolve the conflict while the current Ukrainian government remains in power. A military outcome appears increasingly likely.

Meanwhile, geopolitical shifts continue with more countries seeking to join BRICS and align with Russia/China, while Western countries face internal challenges.

The war seems to be approaching a decisive phase that could determine its ultimate outcome in the coming months.

Article created from: https://youtu.be/O6HO3PlW_r4?feature=shared