Three Years of War in Ukraine: Assessing the Conflict and Future Prospects

February 24, 2025 marks the 3-year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As the conflict enters a new phase, with diplomacy potentially taking center stage, it's an opportune time to assess the current situation and consider what may lie ahead.

The Nature of the Conflict

Pavlo Klimkin, former Foreign Minister of Ukraine, emphasizes that this war is fundamentally about Russia's denial of Ukraine's right to exist as an independent nation. He argues that for Russia, it's an existential conflict tied to Russian identity and mythology. This perspective helps explain why simple ceasefires or compromises have failed in the past and are unlikely to provide a lasting solution.

Klimkin notes that Ukraine was officially neutral when Russia first invaded Crimea in 2014, demonstrating that NATO expansion was more of a pretext than the root cause of Russian aggression. He stresses that any negotiations must address the core issue of Ukraine's security as a European nation.

The Changing Nature of Warfare

The conflict has evolved significantly over the past three years. Klimkin highlights how artillery, once crucial, has been largely supplanted by drone warfare. He predicts that within 18 months, most drones may be AI-powered, further transforming the nature of combat. This rapid technological evolution makes it difficult to freeze the conflict or maintain stable frontlines.

Diplomatic Efforts and Ceasefire Prospects

While there's increasing talk of potential ceasefires, Klimkin cautions against viewing them as a strategy rather than a tactical step. He notes that during his time as Foreign Minister, he negotiated 19 ceasefires, all of which were eventually broken by Russia. Any lasting agreement, he argues, must address the fundamental security concerns of Ukraine.

Klimkin emphasizes that Russia tends to view international relations through the lens of "deals" rather than binding agreements. He argues that the West must negotiate from a position of strength, as this is the only approach Russia truly respects.

The Role of the United States

Recent developments in U.S. politics have injected new uncertainty into the conflict. The Trump administration has opened friendly talks with Russia and is pushing for a quick ceasefire, potentially in exchange for access to Ukrainian minerals. This has led to tensions between Presidents Trump and Zelensky.

Klimkin argues that reducing military aid to Ukraine would be a mistake, as it would weaken Ukraine's negotiating position. He stresses the importance of maintaining a strong deterrent to encourage meaningful negotiations with Russia.

European Leadership and Security

Klimkin expresses concern about a lack of strong leadership in Europe regarding the conflict. He argues that Europe needs to develop a clearer vision for its security in the 21st century, moving beyond outdated 20th-century frameworks.

He emphasizes that there can be no European security without Ukrainian security, and that any "gray zones" or ambiguous arrangements will likely backfire. Klimkin advocates for anchoring Ukraine firmly in European and Western security structures.

Ukraine's Strategic Autonomy

Despite its reliance on Western military aid, Ukraine has been developing areas of strategic autonomy. Klimkin points to Ukraine's advancements in drone technology and its ability to innovate rapidly in response to wartime needs. He argues that investing in Ukrainian defense production and technology could be beneficial for Western partners as well.

Klimkin stresses that Ukraine's greatest asset is its people - their experience, tenacity, and innovative capacity. He suggests that even if Ukraine were to join NATO, it would still need to maintain a strong independent defense capability.

The Future of Russia and International Order

There's ongoing debate about whether lasting peace requires fundamental changes in Russia's political system. Klimkin is skeptical that Putin's departure alone would lead to significant positive changes, given deeply rooted aspects of Russian political culture and mentality.

Regarding the future of the international order, Klimkin expresses doubt about the emergence of a stable, agreed-upon system. He suggests we may be heading towards a "multi-order reality" with overlapping and competing frameworks, rather than a clear great power-dominated order.

Ukraine's Democratic Future

Despite the challenges of war, there's optimism about Ukraine's democratic development. The conflict has strengthened national identity and civil society engagement. Klimkin believes the era of oligarch-dominated politics is ending, with a new sense of shared responsibility emerging among Ukrainian businesses and citizens.

He argues that building strong democratic institutions is not just about internal reform, but also about proving Putin wrong in his belief that Ukrainian democracy is merely a Western imposition.

Conclusion

As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, the situation remains fluid and unpredictable. While diplomatic efforts may intensify, any lasting solution must address the fundamental security concerns of Ukraine and the broader European order. The conflict continues to evolve, shaped by technological advancements and shifting geopolitical dynamics.

Ukraine faces immense challenges but has also demonstrated remarkable resilience and innovation. Its future will depend not only on the outcome of the war but on its ability to build strong democratic institutions and a robust, independent defense capability.

The international community, particularly the United States and Europe, will play a crucial role in shaping the conflict's outcome. However, their approach must be based on a clear understanding of the war's root causes and the complex realities on the ground in Ukraine and Russia.

As we mark this somber anniversary, it's clear that the war in Ukraine will continue to have profound implications not just for the region, but for the future of European security and the global order.

Article created from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_q5xhHLIF0