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Start for freeThe Natural Defenses of Iran
For centuries, Iran has relied on two natural geographic defensive barriers: the towering Alborz and Zagros mountain ranges. Throughout history, these mountains forced enemy armies into narrow, easily defended passages. Today, these ancient formations serve a new purpose - shielding Iran's underground missile bases and nuclear facilities.
Iran's Underground Missile Cities
Deep underground, hardened and fortified to defend against potential air strikes, Iran has constructed what its Revolutionary Guards call "missile cities." These facilities are designed to be nightmares for Iran's enemies.
A former fighter pilot highlighted the difficulties of destroying these deeply buried facilities:
"Many of Iran's sites are over 100 meters underground. Even the United States GBU-57 bomb, designed specifically for a doomsday scenario, can only penetrate up to 60 meters of mountain before it explodes. If they wanted to destroy these sites, the United States would have to build a better bomb."
Even if such a bomb exists, splitting a mountain is no simple feat. Changing geological densities within different layers of a mountain can shift the direction of even the most sophisticated bomb away from its intended target.
The Massive Ordnance Penetrator
The existence of these deeply buried facilities was one of the primary motivations behind the United States Air Force's development of the Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), also known as the "bunker buster" bomb, in 2004. However, the actual capabilities of the bomb remain highly classified. Estimates suggest that it may fall between 30 and 40 meters short of reaching the deepest Iranian facilities.
Multiple Layers of Defense
Assuming US stealth bombers could penetrate Iran's air defense network and breach the 100 meters of earth covering these facilities, they would still face another obstacle: 2.5 meters of fortified concrete protecting the bases.
Iran has designed its bases so that even if some silos are destroyed, missiles can be launched from alternative locations. The country has reinforced these underground facilities with concrete and metal 25-ton blast doors, similar to those used by the United States military in its Cold War-era Cheyenne Mountain Complex.
Cheyenne Mountain Complex Comparison
Built starting in 1961 to protect against Soviet nuclear weapons, the Cheyenne Mountain Complex is 2,000 feet down from its peak. Iran's state media claims that their missile bases are roughly the same depth. The blast doors are designed to withstand a 30-megaton nuclear explosion as close as one mile away.
Architectural Design
This architectural design ensures that if one segment suffers a strike, the others remain unscathed, or at least the fallout is contained. This design is especially pertinent considering the sprawling underground tunnel network that connects multiple sites, where each section is a fortress within a fortress, safeguarding the continuity of operations even when one chamber falls under siege.
New Tactics to Defeat Iran's Defenses
The United States Air Force is working on new tactics to defeat these defenses. One approach involves using a non-explosive version of the Guided Bomb Unit-57 (GBU-57). This variant could be used as a tool to prepare the site for future bombs, essentially loosening and clearing the ground.
This technique could be used in the dense terrain of the Zagros Mountains, allowing each subsequent bomb to burrow progressively deeper, breaching layers of reinforced concrete to reach its underground target.
The GBU-72 Bunker Buster
Ultimately, that's why the US military is working on developing the new GBU-72 bunker buster since 2021. A redacted version of the Air Force's paperwork submitted to justify the production reveals it's a 5,000-pound bomb with smart fuse technology. This technology gives bombers precise control over when the bomb actually detonates, maximizing its destructive force against hardened targets.
It's a satellite-guided bomb, which means that it can be dropped within 5 meters of the point of aim. These can basically be stacked on top of each other like darts. The big difference here is it's small enough to be carried by the larger fleet of F-15EX aircraft.
To give you an idea of how important the US government thinks this capability is, the contract is worth up to $7 billion.
The Scale of Iran's Underground Facilities
According to open-source intelligence estimates, as many as 15,000 of Iran's Rocket Force members may be in these underground tunnels. The tunnels also provide safe storage for many of their fighter jets.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, if the United States attacked Iran's ballistic missile network and nuclear facilities, it would require at least:
- 16 F-18s
- 10 B-2 bombers carrying 30,000 pounds of Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs
And this would be just for preliminary shaping operations. How stable these underground bases are and whether they would collapse from a bombing isn't known.
Learning from History: The Gulf War
These Iranian missile bases were specifically designed to negate the powers, strategies, and advantages that the United States military used against their neighbors in Iraq. During the Gulf War, air power and Special Forces teams were used by the United States to hunt Iraq's mobile Scud missile launchers.
Delta Force was deployed on the ground on Scud-hunting missions to specifically target Iraq's missiles. They were inserted by helicopters, Humvees, and motorcycles. Their mission was to ambush Scud missiles and call in airstrikes on the launchers.
Iraq had some success in moving their launchers around by night, but they were vulnerable to discovery and air attack during the day. Iran paid close attention to all this happening on the tactical level next door. The lesson here was clear to anyone watching: Iraq had nowhere to effectively hide their missile launchers.
The Imam Ali Missile Base
Many of the key design features of Iran's heavily guarded mountain bases are influenced by these factors. Take a look at the Imam Ali missile base, located in Kabad. It's the largest of its kind in Iran. This heavily guarded complex consists of two main components:
- A storage facility for hundreds of munitions
- A separate missile launch facility
The base is strategically located in the western part of the country because this positions it closer to launch missiles into Iraq and Israel. It's inside the 1,500 km long Zagros Mountains, which extend from the northwestern to the southwestern part of the nation.
Iran's Network of Underground Bases
Over the past 30 years, we've witnessed Iran's military carefully construct a network of these bases. Iran has not revealed exactly how many underground bases they have, but open-source intelligence and satellite imagery has led some estimates to be between 25 and 50.
The entire command and control of these spread-out assets is located at their oldest site, the Parchin headquarters.
Mobile Launch Systems
These tunnels store thousands of ballistic missiles, which are loaded onto mobile launch trucks known as Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs). These mobile launchers can quickly move out of the safety of the tunnels to predetermined launch sites located just a few hundred meters away.
The most common type is the Nazeat system. A complete system includes:
- A communications van
- Meteorological van
- GPS system for surveying the launch sites
The communication van allows for secure real-time communication between the command center and the missile launch team. This ensures that all units are synchronized and that any last-minute adjustments can be relayed effectively.
The Importance of Weather Data
The more surprising asset is the meteorological van. Weather conditions can significantly affect the accuracy and success of a missile launch. The meteorological van collects and analyzes data on:
- Wind speed
- Humidity
- Temperature
- Other atmospheric conditions
This information is used to adjust the missile flight path and propulsion parameters to increase accuracy.
GPS and Trajectory Calculations
The GPS system is required for trajectory calculations, but there's some discussion about whether or not this gives away their position and can be tracked by United States intelligence assets.
Mobility and Defense
This mobility makes the missiles difficult to target while they're at their most vulnerable, which is during the brief window of time when they're outside the tunnels and ready to be fired.
This is why the Hawk, SA-2, and S-300 air defense batteries, as well as domestically produced air defense systems, are located throughout Iran's mountain ranges in an attempt to protect them from air strikes. While the effectiveness of these systems is still debated, their presence adds another layer of defense that any attacking force would need to overcome.
After they fire their missiles, the mobile launchers return to the cover and safety of the mountains through a tunnel entrance, of which there's usually several for each base. But the complicated reloading process requires cranes to move new missiles into place, and it introduces delays and limits the number of missiles that Iran can quickly fire in succession.
Iran's Ballistic Missile Arsenal
Iran has about 3,000 ballistic missiles of varying quality and reliability. As of April 2024, Sky News reported that Iran had 50 medium-range ballistic missile launchers. However, after the recent attack, it suggests that Iran has at least a minimum of 120 launchers.
The quality of these ballistic missiles has recently been called into question. After the April 2024 attack on Israel, Dr. Uzi Rubin's analysis for the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies stated that 60% of the ballistic missiles launched by Iran in that operation failed in flight or missed by a significant distance.
However, six ballistic missiles were reported in an after-action report to have hit Israel's Nevatim Air Base. Iran has a number of options they could use to have a better success rate in the future, potentially including:
- Coordinating the strike with Hezbollah to expend Israel's air defense munitions
- Firing on one location instead of two
- Firing two or three volleys
Iran's Nuclear Infrastructure
In addition to missile bases, Iran has been expanding its nuclear infrastructure within the Zagros Mountains. The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies used open-source intelligence to analyze construction images of a new facility being built near the existing Natanz nuclear site.
They looked at the size of the dirt mounds being excavated to determine the site's depth from satellite imagery. This new facility is believed to be located at a depth of between 80 to 100 meters, making it even more challenging to target than the older Natanz site, which is only 8 meters underground.
Natanz has been hit by a series of mysterious incidents, including fires, sabotage, and other attacks that Tehran says was sabotage. What makes this construction strategic is that it's connected through new tunnels to the old Natanz facility, providing additional protection against potential air strikes.
The site is located about 220 km south of Tehran. The depth and fortification of this new site indicate Iran's determination to protect its nuclear assets from any potential attack.
While Iran maintains that its nuclear activities are peaceful and conducted under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the true intentions behind these developments remain a topic of intense international debate. Are these facilities part of a broader strategy to develop nuclear weapons, or are they solely for peaceful purposes like energy and medical research? The answer to this question has significant implications for regional and global security.
Vulnerabilities in Iran's Mountain Defenses
Despite the strength of Iran's missile mountain defenses, they are not invulnerable or invincible. Israel has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to penetrate Iran's security on the ground through covert operations.
The Israeli fighter pilot Honi explained how the missile bases may have an inherent vulnerability:
"Within Iran's natural strength of their mountains lies a hidden weakness. Thousands of kilometers of mountains across its borders also provide the perfect cover for smugglers and spies."
These operations often attempt to exploit Iran's geographic vulnerabilities, turning Iran's strength into a weakness by exploiting the extensive mountain ranges that provide cover for spies and smugglers.
Israeli Covert Operations
This is why so much of Israel's efforts against Iran's rise to power has been through sabotage, exploiting this weakness in topography. Israeli spies have penetrated time and again into Iran, sabotaging key sites, assassinating nuclear scientists, and even stealing Iran's top-secret documents.
The recent assassination in Tehran that we recently witnessed is a clue as to what is to come. Israeli Mossad agents have been linked to the assassination of Iran's nuclear scientists and the sabotage of key sites in Iran.
The Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh
As more details come out about Israel's likely killing of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh inside Tehran, it appears that it would probably not have been an air strike but was instead an attack by Israeli agents already on the ground within the country.
A Mossad operation planted a bomb in the room he was staying in months or weeks earlier and waited until he was staying there to detonate the explosive. He was staying at a guest house which was under the protection of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It was part of a larger compound named Nasad, which is in an upscale neighborhood in the northeastern part of Tehran.
Although Al-Mayadeen, which is a Lebanese outlet that has close ties to Hezbollah, said that Haniyeh was hit by a missile fired from outside Iran's airspace, there's conflicting information here. It was also an extremely accurate explosion that targeted the exact room that he was staying in, which would have been difficult for an air strike.
This suggests that it was more of an intelligence failure on the part of the Iranian government than an air defense failure. Although there are still conflicting reports, the Iranian government released information that they believe it was two ground-launch Spike guided missiles. They publicly claim that Haniyeh's bodyguard gave information to Mossad assassins about his location.
Potential Weapons Used
Mossad agents may have used the special heat-seeking Spike missile launched from the ground. These can be fire-and-forget, so you can just shoot it and then walk away from it. The guided missile heads directly to the target.
Spike NLOS is a multi-purpose electro-optical infrared missile system. Its advanced rocket motor provides capability to reach ranges of up to 32 km. This missile is seen to be fired from aviation or maritime platforms, but you can prepare it to fire within 30 seconds and reload in 15 seconds. The short-range 2 km version only weighs half the weight at 21 pounds.
The way it works is an operator has a data link that gives you real-time video image, which shows you where the missile is headed during the flight path to the target, allowing you to steer to pinpoint accuracy.
Smuggling Operations
How did they get the bombs, Spike missiles, and other equipment smuggled into Iran? Likely by smuggling it through the mountain ranges that are hard for surveillance to track. Whether it was a bomb or missile, it suggests Israel or the United States could potentially use special forces to attack Iran's ballistic missile sites.
That's part of the reason why Iran has a policy of rotating their soldiers who are guarding the outside of these ballistic missile facilities every two months. This limits the amount of information that could be passed to Israeli spies or the chance of a potential double agent working for Mossad.
Previous Israeli Operations in Iran
This isn't the first time Israel has operated on Iranian soil with impunity. They also allegedly set up a remote-controlled machine gun which shot and killed one of their nuclear scientists. Although this assassination is also clouded in mystery because eyewitness reports said that they saw a firefight between a team of Mossad assassins and bodyguards. There are reports that some of the operatives were killed or arrested.
The story about it being a robot machine gun may have been Iran trying to minimize the embarrassment of not preventing an attack on their top nuclear scientists. However, the New York Times, who spoke to agents close to the operation, claim the robot story is actually what happened. This is to say that Mossad managed to smuggle hundreds of pounds of remote weapon station equipment into the nation, including an FN 240 machine gun with ammo.
Since 2007, Mossad has assassinated five of Iran's nuclear scientists and pulled off complex cyber attacks as well. These kinds of operations demonstrate that while Iran's facilities may be difficult to target from the air, they are still vulnerable to ground-based sabotage.
Conclusion
The Alborz and Zagros Mountains have long served as Iran's natural fortresses, protecting the nation from external threats. Today, these mountains are central to Iran's modern defense strategy, housing deeply buried missile bases and nuclear facilities that are designed to withstand some of the most sophisticated military attacks.
However, as advanced as these defenses are, they're not impervious. The United States and Israel face significant challenges to breaching these fortifications, but they also have a range of potential strategies at their disposal, from bunker-busting bombs to covert operations.
The question remains: Can these defenses be breached, or will Iran's mountains continue to safeguard its most critical assets? The answer will depend on how far each side is willing to escalate the conflict.
As tensions continue to simmer in the region, the world watches closely to see how this high-stakes game of cat and mouse will unfold. The mountains of Iran may hold many more secrets yet to be revealed, and only time will tell how this complex geopolitical situation will resolve itself.
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