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Start for freeRussia's Military Progress in Ukraine
As of December 2024, significant developments have occurred on the Ukrainian front. Russia has made substantial gains, indicating a potential shift in the conflict's dynamics.
Current Frontline Status
The line of contact now extends from Kherson on the eastern side of the Dnipro River, across Zaporizhzhia, through the Donetsk region, to eastern Kharkiv. Russia maintains a foothold in northern Kharkiv, just north of the city itself.
Ukrainian Incursion into Russia
A notable Ukrainian incursion into Russia's Kursk region has significantly diminished. Russian forces are steadily pushing Ukrainian forces back, with the latter now only holding a small area around Sudzha across the border. This operation has proven costly for Ukraine, utilizing some of its best remaining troops and equipment.
Russian Advances
Since early December, Russian forces have made considerable progress in several key areas:
- Pervomaisk (P'iatykhatky): Russian forces are encircling this built-up area.
- Avdiivka: Russia has closed up much of the area around Avdiivka, straightening the line of contact and pushing out Ukrainian forces from salient positions.
- Toretsk: Almost entirely under Russian control now.
- Chasiv Yar: Russian forces have crossed the canal and are now more than halfway through the built-up urban area.
- Siversk: Russian forces are approaching and may soon begin encircling the town.
- Eastern Kharkiv: In the Kupiansk area, Russian forces are now at the edge of the built-up urban zone.
These gains suggest a significant degradation of Ukraine's combat power and an inability of Ukraine and its Western sponsors to reconstitute this military strength effectively.
Implications for Future Negotiations
The current situation has led to discussions in the United States and Europe about potential negotiations, freezing the conflict, or even deploying Western troops to Ukraine. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that freezing the conflict does not suit Russia's interests. Only a long-term, permanent resolution will be acceptable for Russia.
Expectations of the incoming Trump administration resolving the conflict may be misplaced. The administration has selected individuals who represent continuity in foreign policy agenda, repeating similar narratives about the conflict as the current administration.
Developments in Syria
The situation in Syria has dramatically changed following the fall of the Syrian government and the dissolution of the Syrian Arab Army. This has been followed by hundreds of airstrikes carried out by US-armed Israeli warplanes against military facilities, naval assets, air bases, and air defense systems.
Syria's once formidable integrated air defense system has been completely destroyed, allowing Israeli and US warplanes to move freely across Syrian airspace. This development makes it easier for Israel to reach US-controlled Iraqi airspace and potentially attack Iran.
US Strategy in the Middle East
The destruction of Syria was always a prerequisite for the ultimate goal in the Middle East: toppling the Iranian government. This strategy has been outlined in policy papers dating back to 2009, detailing various options including:
- Economic sanctions
- Diplomatic resolutions (often sabotaged and used as pretexts for escalation)
- Military options (including outright invasion and occupation)
- Airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile programs
- Encouraging Israeli military strikes
- Supporting popular uprisings or creating opposition movements
- Inspiring insurgencies and supporting minority opposition groups
- Coup attempts
This playbook has been employed across the Arab world since 2011, during the so-called Arab Spring.
Israel's Incursion into Syria
Israel's extended occupation of Syrian territory is moving northward along the Lebanese-Syrian border. This movement appears to be flanking the Litani River, a natural barrier that Israel has twice failed to reach during invasions of Southern Lebanon (in 2006 and 2024). This positioning could be used in future operations against Hezbollah, potentially cutting off the group from the north while conducting operations in the south.
Russia's Presence in Syria and Potential Move to Libya
Russian forces currently maintain a presence at the Tartus naval base and Khmeimim Air Base in Syria. However, this position has become increasingly untenable due to the surrounding presence of US and Turkish-backed forces.
Reports suggest that Russia may be considering moving some of its assets from Syria to Libya. This move could provide Russia with more reliable partners and a better balance of power to protect its interests. Potential locations for Russian facilities in Libya include Benghazi for a naval base and Jufra Airbase for air operations.
Assassination of Russian Military Leadership
The recent assassination of Lieutenant General Igor Kilov and his assistant in Moscow highlights the ongoing campaign of targeted killings attributed to Ukrainian intelligence. However, it's crucial to remember that Ukraine's intelligence capabilities have been significantly enhanced by a decade-long secret partnership with the CIA, as revealed by a New York Times article from February 2024.
This partnership, which predates Russia's military operation in Ukraine, involved the establishment of secret CIA bases along the Russia-Ukraine border and the training of Ukrainian intelligence and military units in covert armed operations. Therefore, attacks attributed to Ukraine often have significant US involvement and should be viewed in this context.
Analysis of the Yars and Sarmat Missile Strikes
A recent blog post provided detailed analysis of commercial satellite imagery showing the effects of a Russian intermediate-range ballistic missile strike on an industrial facility. The analysis revealed significant damage to multiple buildings within the facility, with entire sections collapsed or internal structures exposed.
Key points from the analysis include:
- The missile separated into smaller projectiles, independently targeting different areas of the facility.
- Damage was observed in at least three distinct clusters within the industrial complex.
- The scale of the facility is significant, with a diameter of over two kilometers.
- While not creating a single massive crater, the missile caused severe damage to multiple structures.
This demonstration of the Yars and Sarmat missiles' capabilities suggests they could pose a significant threat to military installations, government facilities, or industrial complexes. The ability to cause widespread damage with a single missile represents a notable advancement in Russian military technology.
Implications for Global Military Balance
The development and apparent mass production of these advanced missiles by Russia could shift the global military balance. Even if the US develops similar technology, Russia and China may maintain an advantage due to their current lead in manufacturing capabilities for both missiles and air defense systems.
Looking Ahead to 2025
As we approach the end of 2024 and the transition to a new US administration, it's important to consider the potential continuity in foreign policy. Despite changes in leadership, early indications suggest that the core elements of US foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine and global military engagement, may remain largely unchanged.
Key points to consider for 2025:
- The incoming Trump administration has signaled a desire for increased NATO defense spending.
- Continued support for arming Ukraine is likely, albeit with potential shifts in strategy.
- The possibility of a "frozen conflict" in Ukraine, similar to the situation in Syria, remains a concern.
- US focus may shift towards other global challenges, including potential conflicts in the Middle East or the Asia-Pacific region.
Conclusion
As we move into 2025, the global geopolitical landscape continues to evolve rapidly. Russia's advances in Ukraine, changing dynamics in Syria and Libya, and the ongoing development of advanced military technologies all contribute to a complex and potentially volatile international situation. Vigilant observation and analysis of these developments will be crucial for understanding and navigating the challenges ahead in global politics and security.
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