Global Conflicts in 2024: A Year of Interconnected Wars

The Rise of Global Conflicts

New data shows that wars have doubled over the past 5 years, with casualties reaching over 200,000 in 2024 - levels not seen since the Cold War. There are an estimated 56 separate conflicts raging involving 92 different countries, the most since World War II. A disturbing new trend is that these conflicts are increasingly becoming interconnected, with events in one sector influencing the outcome of distant wars elsewhere.

Major Conflicts in 2024

Myanmar Civil War

The civil war in Myanmar has been raging since a military coup in February 2021. Major developments occurred in 2024:

• Three insurgent groups in the north formed the "Three Brotherhood Alliance" and launched a successful offensive called Operation 1027.
• Rebels captured over 220 military positions by November.
• The success inspired other rebel groups to launch uprisings across the country.
• China attempted to mediate a ceasefire in January 2024, but it fell through.
• Rebels now control a wide horseshoe of territory to the west, north and east.
• The military has resorted to conscription to replace 30,000 losses.
• Over 14,000 troops have defected from the military.
• Russia and China have sold artillery, jets and helicopters to the Myanmar military.
• In December 2024, rebels forced the military to abandon their last stronghold in Rakhine State.
• China has proposed a joint security company with Myanmar's military, which could shift the tide of the war.

Mexico's Cartel Violence

Mexico continues to face severe cartel violence:

• Over 30,000 crime-related deaths reported annually.
• 2024 elections were the most violent in decades.
• Mexico has increasingly militarized control of airports and infrastructure.
• The military now oversees 30% of all airports.
• A major cartel war erupted between factions of the Sinaloa cartel.
• Cartels are using drone warfare and high-powered weaponry.
• Fentanyl deaths in the US dropped 14% to 97,000.
• Illegal immigration to the US from Latin America dropped 98%.
• There is renewed talk of US Special Forces potentially targeting cartel leadership.

Political Violence in the United States

The US saw an unusual amount of political violence in 2024:

• Two assassination attempts on Donald Trump.
• A shooter killed a bystander and hit Trump at a Pennsylvania rally.
• A second attempt in Florida was prevented by Secret Service.
• The second attacker had been trying to recruit foreign fighters for Ukraine.

The War in Ukraine

The conflict in Ukraine intensified further in 2024:

• November 19th marked 1,000 days of war.
• Ukraine launched a small invasion into internationally recognized Russian territory.
• Russia deployed 11,000 North Korean troops to fight on their behalf.
• Ukraine claims 3,000 North Koreans have been killed so far.
• Russia has regained 58% of previously lost territory.
• Western F-16 fighter jets arrived in Ukraine and entered combat operations.
• Ukraine is struggling with manpower shortages.
• Russia continues to produce 250,000 munitions per month.

US-China Tensions

Conflict between the US and China intensified in 2024:

• Increased military presence in the South China Sea.
• US deployed long-range hypersonic missile systems to the Philippines.
• China conducted its largest naval exercise in nearly 30 years.
• Multiple confrontations between Chinese vessels and the Philippines.
• International condemnation of China's actions in the region.

Conflicts in Africa

Africa saw significant shifts in 2024:

• Many nations in the Sahel had coups, realigning from Western to Russian support.
• Russian influence increased as Western influence decreased.
• Sudan remains the worst humanitarian crisis globally.
• 26,000 killed by direct violence in Sudan since 2022.
• 35,000 died from starvation and disease.
• 6 million displaced and 26 million facing starvation in Sudan.
• Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF continues.

Red Sea Conflict

The situation in the Red Sea escalated in 2024:

• US B-2 stealth bombers conducted their first combat mission since 2017 against Houthi targets.
• Houthi attacks on oil tankers caused a major spill.
• Russia has been sharing targeting data with the Houthis.
• Shipping through the Red Sea dropped by half.

Haiti's Gang War

Haiti's gang war continued to rage in 2024:

• Only 600 of the planned 3,000 international police and military forces arrived.
• Gangs control 85% of the capital Port-au-Prince.
• The main airport was shut down twice due to gang violence.
• 15 nations have signed on to a multinational security support mission.

Ethiopia's New Civil War

Ethiopia faces the threat of a new civil war:

• Conflict centers around the Fano alliance of six ethnic nationalist militias.
• Major fighting occurred in the Amhara region.
• The government has resorted to mass arrests and internet shutdowns.
• There's a risk of violence spreading to neighboring regions.

Mali and Russian Mercenaries

Russian mercenaries faced challenges in Mali:

• About 1,500 Wagner (now Africa Corps) mercenaries deployed.
• Suffered their greatest defeat in July, losing 46 fighters in one ambush.
• The ambush highlighted the effectiveness of local insurgent groups.
• Doubts are growing about the effectiveness of Russian mercenaries in Africa.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The conflict between Israel and Hamas escalated dramatically:

• 38,000 Palestinians killed and over a million displaced.
• Israel achieved some objectives against Hamas but at a huge humanitarian cost.
• Hamas lost much of its heavy weaponry but still retains about half its initial manpower.

Israel-Hezbollah Conflict

Israel and Hezbollah engaged in open warfare:

• Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon in October 2024.
• Hezbollah suffered significant losses, including their leader Hassan Nasrallah.
• A ceasefire was agreed on November 27th.
• Hezbollah withdrew fighters from Syria to reinforce Lebanon.

Iran-Israel Tensions

Direct confrontations occurred between Iran and Israel:

• Iran launched over 300 drones and missiles at Israel in April.
• Another 200 missiles were launched in October.
• Israel retaliated with strikes on Iranian targets.
• The exchanges highlighted Iran's reluctance to engage in full-scale conflict.

Syrian Civil War

The Syrian Civil War saw a dramatic turn:

• A new rebel offensive caught the Syrian Army by surprise in November.
• Bashar al-Assad fled the country.
• Damascus fell on December 8th, toppling the Assad regime.
• The power vacuum could lead to further instability in the region.

Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh concluded:

• Following Azerbaijan's 2023 offensive, a ceasefire was reached.
• The territory returned to Azerbaijan's control.
• Relative quiet has been maintained through 2024.

Conclusion

The interconnected nature of global conflicts has become increasingly evident in 2024. Wars are influencing each other in unprecedented ways, from arms exchanges between factions to the internationalization of battlefronts. The spillover effects of regional conflicts are felt globally, highlighting how geopolitical rivalries are intensifying.

As we look towards 2025, addressing these cascading consequences and finding paths to peace will be crucial. The complex web of conflicts poses significant challenges to peacebuilding efforts, but also underscores the need for comprehensive, global approaches to conflict resolution.

As we enter the new year, it's vital that we strive to understand these interconnected conflicts and work towards peaceful resolutions wherever possible. The humanitarian costs of these wars are staggering, and the potential for further escalation remains high. However, by recognizing the links between these conflicts, we may also find new opportunities for diplomatic solutions and international cooperation.

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