Andral's Arsenal One: Rebuilding the Arsenal of Democracy

Andral, a defense technology startup founded by Palmer Luckey, has ambitious plans to build a massive drone manufacturing facility called Arsenal One in Ohio. The company claims this facility will help "rebuild the arsenal of democracy" and allow the U.S. to compete with China's growing military-industrial capabilities. However, a closer examination reveals significant challenges and flaws in Andral's approach.

The Vision for Arsenal One

According to Luckey, Arsenal One is designed to be a hyperscale production facility that will:

• Provide up to 4,000 jobs over the next 10 years
• Produce thousands of defense products including cruise missiles and autonomous warplanes
• Use a "product company" approach rather than traditional defense contracting
• Leverage off-the-shelf components and modular designs for faster, cheaper manufacturing

Luckey claims Arsenal One is necessary because the U.S. would run out of arms and ammunition just 8 days into a potential conflict with China. He argues that dramatically scaling up production capabilities is critical for national security.

Andral's Planned Product Line

Some of the key products Andral plans to manufacture at Arsenal One include:

• Fury: An autonomous fighter jet to work alongside crewed aircraft
• Roadrunner: A reusable jet-powered interceptor and attack drone
• Barracuda: A family of long-range attack drones/cruise missiles
• Various ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) drones
• Mobile command and control systems
• Combat heads-up displays

However, it's worth noting that many of these products, like Fury and Barracuda, do not yet exist as working prototypes. Luckey often poses with full-scale models, but the actual systems are still years away from production.

Challenges in Competing with China

While Andral's vision is ambitious, there are several major challenges in trying to match China's military-industrial output:

Scale of Production

China's vast industrial base allows it to produce military equipment at a scale the U.S. struggles to match. For example:

• China has expanded production of its J-20 fighter to match or exceed U.S. F-22 numbers
• China is on track to match F-35 annual production rates
• China unveiled another 5th gen fighter, the J-35, likely to be produced in large numbers

Even with a hyperscale facility, it's unlikely Andral could produce autonomous aircraft at anywhere near these volumes.

Cost-Effectiveness

Many of Andral's planned products may not be cost-effective for modern conflicts. For instance:

• The Roadrunner drone costs in the "low hundreds of thousands" per unit
• Russia's Geran-2 long-range attack drone costs an estimated $50,000
• Russia produces thousands of Geran-2 drones annually, and hundreds of thousands of cheaper drones

Andral's high-tech approach may result in impressive but impractical systems compared to the cheap, numerous drones being used effectively in conflicts like Ukraine.

Profit vs Purpose

As a for-profit company, Andral must prioritize investor returns. This contrasts with state-owned enterprises in Russia and China that can focus solely on meeting military needs without profit pressures. Luckey himself admits Andral exists to generate profits first, which may conflict with optimal national security outcomes.

Development Timelines

Many of Andral's planned products are still early in development. Bringing new military systems from concept to mass production typically takes many years. China's established manufacturing base allows it to iterate and scale up production much faster.

Is Andral's Approach Justified?

Beyond the practical challenges, there are questions about whether Andral's vision of mobilizing U.S. industry to confront China is strategically sound or justified:

• Any U.S.-China conflict would likely occur near China's shores, not as a defensive war for the U.S.
• Diverting vast national resources to military production takes away from domestic priorities like infrastructure, healthcare and education.
• The threat Andral claims China poses may be exaggerated to drive weapons sales and profits.

Luckey's rhetoric about urgently confronting China seems at odds with selling weapons to Taiwan in violation of the U.S. government's own One China policy. This suggests Andral may be more focused on creating markets for its products than on a coherent national security strategy.

Profiting from Conflict

While Luckey frames Andral's mission in patriotic terms, he personally profits handsomely from the company:

• Luckey's 2021 compensation from Andral was nearly $11 million
• He claims to be so wealthy from Andral that he can simply buy houses wherever he travels frequently
• Andral itself is reportedly generating around $1 billion in annual revenue

This calls into question whether Andral's priorities truly align with national interests versus enriching its executives and investors.

The Military-Industrial Complex

Andral's approach echoes long-standing concerns about the military-industrial complex that President Eisenhower warned about in his farewell address:

"In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist."

By promoting fears about China to sell weapons systems, companies like Andral risk distorting national priorities and diverting resources away from domestic needs.

Conclusion

While Andral's Arsenal One facility represents an ambitious vision for scaling up U.S. military production, it faces major hurdles in truly competing with China's vast industrial capabilities. More fundamentally, Andral's profit-driven approach and rhetoric about urgently confronting China raise concerns about whether such efforts truly serve national interests or simply enrich defense contractors.

Rather than attempting to match China's military-industrial output, U.S. policymakers may be better served focusing on diplomatic solutions and investing in domestic priorities that improve quality of life for Americans. The military-industrial complex that Andral represents may ultimately pose a greater threat to American democracy and prosperity than the foreign adversaries it claims to be defending against.

Article created from: https://youtu.be/WRWRaCrHsZE?feature=shared