Zelensky's New York Trip: Desperate Bid for Support Amid Kherson Debacle

Zelensky's High-Stakes New York Visit

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky prepares for a crucial trip to New York to address the UN Security Council, he faces mounting pressure both at home and abroad. The much-hyped Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson has failed to achieve significant gains, leaving Zelensky in a precarious position as he seeks to rally continued Western support for Ukraine's war effort.

The Kherson Debacle

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kherson region, launched with great fanfare earlier this year, has turned into what many observers are now calling a debacle. Despite initial claims of success from Kyiv, the operation has made little progress and resulted in heavy Ukrainian casualties.

Reports indicate that Russian forces have captured more villages in the Kherson area and may be close to encircling the Ukrainian grouping there. There are signs of panic among some Ukrainian units, with contradictory orders and chaos in the military leadership.

This failure in Kherson has severely undermined Zelensky's credibility, both domestically and with Ukraine's Western backers. The president had personally championed the Kherson operation and took credit for its supposed early successes. Now that it has faltered, his rivals within Ukraine are moving to capitalize on his weakened position.

Zaluzhny Maneuvers for Power

General Valerii Zaluzhny, the former commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces who was dismissed by Zelensky in February, appears to be positioning himself as an alternative to the embattled president.

A recent Politico article claimed that Zaluzhny had warned against the Kherson offensive from the beginning, predicting it would end in failure. While the timeline of this claim is questionable given Zaluzhny's February dismissal, it fits a pattern of the general presenting himself as the voice of reason and military expertise in contrast to Zelensky's recklessness.

Zaluzhny, currently serving as Ukraine's ambassador to the UK, accompanied US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on his recent visit to Kyiv. This has fueled speculation that he may have Western backing as a potential replacement for Zelensky.

The general has long cultivated an image as a stabilizing force, trying to restrain Zelensky's more impulsive decisions. With the Kherson operation failing and the situation deteriorating in other areas like Bakhmut, Zaluzhny and his allies may see an opportunity to make a move against the president.

Mounting Pressure on Zelensky

Zelensky's position in Kyiv appears increasingly unstable. There are renewed calls from some Ukrainian MPs for the president to either call elections or step down. The failure in Kherson and lack of progress elsewhere on the battlefield have emboldened his critics.

The president's trip to New York comes at a critical moment. He desperately needs to secure continued Western military and financial support to sustain Ukraine's war effort. Any further setbacks in Kherson while he is abroad could be disastrous for his credibility.

Reports suggest Zelensky has ordered his military leadership to hold the line in Kherson and Bakhmut at all costs during his trip, prioritizing these areas over other parts of the front. This underscores how precarious his position has become.

Zelensky's Agenda in New York

During his visit to the UN and meetings with US officials, Zelensky is expected to present what he calls a "victory plan" for Ukraine. However, this appears to be more of a diplomatic initiative than a military strategy.

Key elements of Zelensky's agenda likely include:

• Pushing for a new peace conference, potentially in November
• Seeking authorization for long-range missile strikes into pre-2014 Russian territory
• Lobbying for accelerated NATO membership for Ukraine
• Requesting additional advanced weapons systems
• Calling for increased sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Russia

Zelensky will argue that with sufficient Western backing, Ukraine can still achieve victory. He will likely emphasize Ukraine's moral and legal right to defend its territorial integrity against Russian aggression.

However, there are signs that support for Ukraine's maximalist war aims may be wavering among some Western powers. Countries like France, Germany and Italy appear to be cooling on the prospect of an outright Ukrainian military victory.

A Make-or-Break Moment

Zelensky's New York trip represents a critical juncture for Ukraine's war effort and his own political future. If he fails to secure strong commitments of continued support from Western leaders, it could accelerate his decline.

The president's domestic rivals, led by figures like Zaluzhny, are waiting in the wings to capitalize on any signs of weakness. The next few weeks may determine whether Zelensky can maintain his grip on power in Kyiv or if Ukraine's Western backers begin looking for alternatives.

Much depends on whether Zelensky can prevent further deterioration of the military situation, especially in Kherson, while he is abroad. Any major setbacks on the battlefield could fatally undermine his appeals for increased Western aid.

As he takes the stage at the UN, Zelensky faces perhaps the most pivotal moment of his presidency. His ability to rally international support in the face of Ukraine's battlefield struggles may determine not just his own political fate, but the future course of the entire conflict.

The Limits of Western Support

While some Western leaders and analysts continue to back Ukraine's maximalist war aims, there are growing signs of "Ukraine fatigue" setting in among many NATO countries. The lack of progress on the battlefield, combined with the economic costs of supporting Ukraine, is leading to more calls for a negotiated settlement.

Diverging Views Among NATO Allies

The United States and United Kingdom remain Ukraine's strongest backers, continuing to push for increased military aid and refusing to pressure Kyiv into negotiations. However, other key NATO members like France and Germany appear to be losing patience with the current approach.

French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly called for dialogue with Russia and warned against humiliating Moscow. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been more hesitant than some allies to supply certain advanced weapons systems to Ukraine.

Smaller NATO countries, especially those in Eastern Europe, remain hawkish on Russia. But their ability to sustain high levels of military and economic support for Ukraine is limited.

Economic Pressures Mount

The costs of supporting Ukraine's war effort are straining Western economies already dealing with high inflation and energy prices. Public support for open-ended aid to Ukraine is declining in many countries as citizens feel the economic pinch.

In the United States, some Republican lawmakers are pushing to reduce or attach more conditions to aid for Ukraine. While bipartisan support remains fairly strong, there are questions about how long this can be sustained, especially with a presidential election looming in 2024.

Military Realities Set In

The failure of Ukraine's counteroffensive has forced a reassessment of what can realistically be achieved on the battlefield. Many Western military experts now believe that neither side is likely to achieve a decisive military victory.

This has led to more calls for exploring diplomatic solutions, even if that means Ukraine may have to make some territorial concessions. However, Zelensky and his government remain adamantly opposed to any peace deal that does not restore Ukraine's pre-2014 borders.

The China Factor

China's growing alignment with Russia is complicating Western calculations. There are fears that increased pressure on Moscow could drive it even closer to Beijing, potentially leading to a more formal military alliance between the two powers.

Some in the West argue for de-escalation in Ukraine to focus on the perceived longer-term threat from China. This view holds that a prolonged conflict in Ukraine mainly serves to weaken the West while strengthening China's global position.

Scenarios for Ukraine's Future

As Zelensky heads to New York, several potential scenarios loom for Ukraine's future trajectory in the conflict:

Continued Stalemate

In this scenario, the front lines remain largely static, with neither side able to achieve a breakthrough. Western support continues but at a reduced level, allowing Ukraine to hold its current positions but not launch major offensives.

This could lead to a "frozen conflict" situation similar to other post-Soviet disputes, with low-level fighting continuing for years without resolution.

Gradual Russian Advances

If Western support wavers or Ukraine's military position deteriorates further, Russia could make slow but steady gains along the front. This might eventually force Ukraine to the negotiating table from a position of weakness.

Under this scenario, Ukraine might have to accept the loss of additional territory beyond Crimea and parts of the Donbas in exchange for a ceasefire.

Negotiated Settlement

Growing war fatigue on both sides, combined with Western pressure, could lead to serious peace talks. Any deal would likely involve painful compromises for Ukraine, potentially including neutrality and some form of autonomy for Russian-speaking regions.

This scenario could see Zelensky pushed aside in favor of new leadership in Kyiv more amenable to concessions.

Escalation and Wider Conflict

In a more dangerous scenario, the war could escalate beyond Ukraine's borders. This might involve direct NATO-Russia clashes or the use of tactical nuclear weapons. While still unlikely, the risks of wider escalation remain a serious concern.

Internal Instability in Ukraine or Russia

Prolonged conflict could lead to political upheaval in either country. In Ukraine, Zelensky might be replaced by a new government with a different approach to the war. In Russia, although less likely, military setbacks could theoretically threaten Putin's grip on power.

Conclusion

As Zelensky prepares to make his case to world leaders in New York, Ukraine stands at a crossroads. The failure of the Kherson counteroffensive has dealt a severe blow to Kyiv's hopes of military victory. The president now faces the dual challenge of shoring up waning Western support while fending off rivals at home.

The coming weeks and months may prove decisive in determining the future course of the conflict. Much depends on whether Zelensky can prevent further deterioration on the battlefield while securing the advanced weapons and financial aid Ukraine needs to continue the fight.

However, larger geopolitical and economic forces may be shifting against Ukraine's maximalist war aims. Zelensky will need all his political skill to navigate these treacherous waters and keep his country's cause at the forefront of the global agenda.

The outcome of his New York mission could shape not just Ukraine's fate, but the broader contours of European security and the global order for years to come. As he takes the podium at the UN, the stakes for Zelensky - and for Ukraine - have never been higher.

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