Washington's Middle East Strategy: Baiting Iran into Conflict

US Strategy to Maintain Global Primacy

The United States has long pursued a strategy of maintaining global primacy and preventing the rise of rival powers. This approach dates back to the end of the Cold War, as evidenced by a 1992 New York Times article titled "U.S. Strategy Plan Calls for Insuring No Rivals Develop." The article outlined America's intent to use "sufficient military might to deter any nation or group of nations from challenging American primacy."

This strategy is not limited to a single region, but is applied globally:

• In Eastern Europe against Russia
• In the Asia-Pacific against China
• In Latin America against nations like Venezuela
• In the Middle East against Iran and its allies

In each of these regions, the US relies on proxy forces and politically captured entities to carry out provocations and aggression that the US itself cannot openly engage in for political reasons.

Israel as America's Middle East Proxy

Just as Ukraine serves as a US proxy against Russia in Eastern Europe, and Taiwan is used against China in the Asia-Pacific, Israel functions as America's primary proxy in the Middle East. The US has spent decades building up Israel's military and political capabilities to serve this role.

Israel's actions in the region closely align with stated US policy objectives, including:

• Carrying out assassinations
• Conducting terrorist attacks
• Launching military strikes
• Provoking wider regional conflicts

This arrangement allows the US to maintain plausible deniability while still pursuing its strategic goals in the Middle East.

US Support Enables Israeli Aggression

While the US publicly calls for peace and restraint, its actions tell a different story. The US provides Israel with billions in annual aid, including a steady supply of arms and ammunition. This support directly enables Israel's military operations and aggressive posture in the region.

For example, Reuters reported in June 2023 that the US had sent Israel thousands of 200-pound bombs since October 7th, 2022. This continued flow of munitions has allowed Israel to sustain its bombardment of Gaza despite international criticism.

The level of violence has been extremely one-sided, with Gaza suffering massive destruction and civilian casualties. Yet Israel has also carried out strikes against Lebanon, Syria, and Iran - none of whom were involved in the October 7th Hamas attacks according to Israel's own military.

The Trap Set for Iran

The pattern of Israeli provocations across the region fits into a larger US strategy aimed at Iran. This strategy was laid out in detail in a 2009 Brookings Institution paper titled "Which Path to Persia? Options for a New American Strategy Toward Iran."

The 170-page document outlines various approaches for coercing, containing, and ultimately overthrowing the Iranian government. It explicitly discusses using Israel to provoke Iran into a war that would draw in the United States:

"The United States could encourage or even assist the Israelis to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, in the expectation that Iran's retaliation would enable a U.S. attack."

The paper notes that an Israeli strike could trigger a wider conflict, giving Washington the pretext it seeks for direct military action against Iran. This matches the current pattern of escalating Israeli attacks against Iranian interests.

Iran's Measured Response

Despite facing repeated provocations, Iran and its allies have shown remarkable restraint. Their responses have been carefully calibrated to avoid providing justification for a wider war. This approach frustrates US and Israeli efforts to portray Iran as an aggressor.

For instance, when Iran launched missiles at Israel in April 2023 - an unprecedented direct attack - it did so with advance warning and in a way that minimized damage. This allowed Iran to demonstrate its capabilities while denying its adversaries a pretext for major retaliation.

Short-Term Revenge vs. Long-Term Victory

While Israeli attacks and provocations are deeply frustrating to Iran and its allies, they have not seriously threatened the survival of these nations. The proxy war that endangered Syria's existence was defeated through cooperation between Syrian, Russian, and Iranian forces within Syria's borders - not by attacking Israel or other external powers.

Similarly, Iran has weathered years of attacks, terrorism, and political interference without these hostilities endangering its survival as a nation-state. Iran recognizes that escalating to total war would play into US hands and could lead to the destruction of the entire region.

Iran's Strategic Patience

Instead of retaliating, Iran has focused on building up its military capabilities, economic power, and diplomatic influence. It has deepened its participation in the emerging multipolar world order, joining BRICS earlier this year.

This approach recognizes that time favors Iran in the long run. As US global influence wanes and the multipolar world grows stronger, Washington's ability to dominate the Middle East diminishes. Iran can see that by avoiding major conflict now, it is likely to emerge victorious by default as the regional and global balance of power shifts.

US Racing Against the Clock

The United States understands that its window of opportunity for military action against Iran is closing. As Iran grows stronger and more integrated into the multipolar world, the feasibility and potential impact of US aggression decreases.

This explains the increasing desperation behind US and Israeli provocations. They are attempting to trigger a war sooner rather than later, before the changing global dynamics make such a conflict impossible or counterproductive for US interests.

Importance of Security and Stability

For Iran and its allies, the key to success lies in enhancing security and maintaining regional stability. Many of the provocations carried out by Israel are predictable and preventable with proper precautions.

For example, a recent terrorist attack in Lebanon involving explosive-rigged electronic devices could have been thwarted with better operational security practices. By plugging these security holes, Iran and its partners can make future provocations more difficult and less effective.

The Path Forward

Overcoming provocations rather than reacting emotionally to them will give the Middle East the time needed to benefit from the ongoing shift in global power dynamics. This requires a combination of:

• Continued security efforts
• Diplomatic outreach
• Economic development
• Participation in multilateral institutions

By focusing on these constructive measures rather than military retaliation, Iran and its allies can outlast US attempts to trigger a destructive regional war.

Conclusion

The United States, acting through its Israeli proxy, is attempting to bait Iran into a wider Middle Eastern conflict. This strategy aims to preserve US regional dominance in the face of declining global influence.

However, Iran has thus far refused to take the bait. By maintaining strategic patience and focusing on long-term development, Iran seeks to outlast these provocations. As the multipolar world order continues to emerge, time appears to be on Iran's side.

The challenge for Iran and its allies is to continue enhancing their security and stability while avoiding the trap of escalation. By doing so, they can deny the US the regional war it seeks and pave the way for a more balanced Middle East in the multipolar future.

This approach requires discipline and a willingness to endure short-term provocations for the sake of long-term victory. While emotionally unsatisfying in the moment, it offers the best path toward lasting peace and prosperity for the people of the region.

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