Unveiling Collective Illusions: How Private Opinions Shape Public Discourse

In today's polarized world, it often feels like we're more divided than ever. But what if much of this perceived division is actually an illusion? According to researcher Todd Rose, we may be living in a "collective illusion" - a phenomenon where most people in a group go along with something they don't privately agree with because they incorrectly think the majority supports it.

Rose, co-founder and CEO of Populace, a nonpartisan think tank, has spent years studying the gap between people's private beliefs and what they say publicly. His research reveals some surprising findings about what Americans really think on hot-button issues, and how misconceptions about others' views can lead entire groups astray.

The Prevalence of Self-Silencing

One of Rose's key findings is the widespread prevalence of self-silencing in America today. According to his research:

• Roughly two-thirds of Americans are self-silencing on issues that really matter to them
• People are outright lying about their views on multiple controversial topics
• The public consensus often does not match the private consensus on many issues

This self-silencing has serious consequences, both for individuals and society as a whole:

• It can lead to elevated cortisol levels and cardiovascular issues
• It's associated with lower perceived self-worth and diminished life satisfaction
• It results in declining levels of social trust

"If you want to destroy a society, destroy their stories, destroy their trust in each other," Rose warns. By not speaking up, we allow vocal fringe groups to dominate the conversation, creating a false perception of division.

The Power of Collective Illusions

Rose defines a collective illusion as a social phenomenon where most people in a group go along with something they don't privately agree with because they incorrectly think most others in the group agree with it. This leads to entire groups doing things almost no one actually wanted.

Some examples of collective illusions Rose has uncovered through his research:

• While 60% of Democrats publicly supported "defunding the police" at one point, only 9% privately agreed
• After October 7th, polls suggested 62% of Gen Z believed Hamas was justified. Private opinion research found it was actually in the single digits.
• People believe others prioritize fame as the top measure of success, when it's actually last in private rankings

"These illusions can have consequences," Rose explains. Cities that went all-in on defunding police have since reversed course after disastrous results - all based on a false perception of what people wanted.

How Collective Illusions Form

Rose outlines two key factors that allow collective illusions to take hold:

1. Conformity bias - We're hardwired to prefer being with our groups rather than against them
2. Flawed consensus estimation - Our brains assume the loudest, most repeated voices represent the majority view

In today's social media environment, this becomes especially problematic. On Twitter, for example, 80% of content is generated by just 10% of users - often representing extreme views. This creates a skewed perception of what "most people" believe.

"Without any interference here, if only 10% of Americans believe some idea, but you think it's 80% and you disagree, unless you're willing to go against your group...then you'll self-silence if you can," Rose explains.

Weaponizing Collective Illusions

While collective illusions can form organically, Rose warns that bad actors are now actively exploiting this phenomenon:

"What we've seen in our work now is that there are state-sponsored efforts by China, Russia, Iran, North Korea to build bot armies that do this across every platform."

He cites research showing that if just 5% of social media interactions are with well-designed bots, it can guarantee what consensus emerges. The actual percentage is likely much higher - at least 18% by conservative estimates.

"The real name of the game now is the ability to manufacture a false consensus," Rose says. "I can literally get young people in this country to endorse things they don't agree with that are anti-Western, anti-US, anti-free society, and get them to behave in ways that they wouldn't behave otherwise."

He believes collective illusions represent "the greatest invisible threat to free society that's ever existed."

Strategies for Combating Collective Illusions

While the situation may seem dire, Rose is ultimately optimistic. He outlines several strategies for combating collective illusions:

1. Raise awareness of the phenomenon

"Even appreciating the concept of collective illusions, right? Having a name for this thing...absent being aware of the phenomenon, why in the world would you think you can't trust your brain to tell you what your group believes anymore?"

2. Have the moral courage to be honest

Rose acknowledges this is easier said than done, but emphasizes its importance: "Once you realize...it's like a 50/50 coin toss whether name any important issue whether you're right about your group or not."

3. Ask "why?"

"It's amazing if people if you're hearing this you're like oh sorry like like we all know this is it. Oh really? Why?" Someone simply propagating an illusion often can't give a real answer.

4. Inject uncertainty

If you're not ready to outright disagree, simply saying "I haven't made up my mind yet" can be powerful. "Groups never punish you for not having made up your mind yet," Rose notes.

5. Be the one person who speaks up

"All it takes is one other person in the room. One other person. It's when you are isolated that you feel the most pressure," Rose explains. You don't have to agree - just create space for others to speak.

6. Focus on understanding, not agreement

"What's under the hood there is the need to be understood," Rose says. Asking someone to explain their views, even if you disagree, builds trust and empathy.

7. Use entertainment and storytelling

"The ability to embed private opinion in the TV shows we watch, the music we listen to, the things like that has such an asymmetric effect in terms of its ability to shatter illusions and reveal shared values," Rose explains.

The Path Forward

Ultimately, Rose believes overcoming collective illusions requires reaffirming core principles of free societies - things like tolerance, free expression, and individual rights.

"We will win when we find the moral courage to be honest with each other and the civic courage to make it safe for other people to do the same," he says.

While collective illusions can be self-fulfilling, they are also fragile because they're based on lies. Shattering them can unlock rapid social change.

"I really genuinely believe that collective illusions represent the greatest invisible threat to free society that that's ever existed," Rose concludes. "But we've got to address the challenges in front of us right now. And from my standpoint, the self-silencing, the preference falsification, and the collective illusions that have formed as a result are the biggest thing standing our way between here and a future that we all really want."

By having authentic conversations, trusting each other more, and embracing an abundance mindset, Rose believes we can overcome these challenges and build a more prosperous society for all. The power to make that change lies with each of us as individuals - we just need the courage to speak up and truly listen to one another.

Article created from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tj6ptwWOgkU