Ukraine's Military Crisis Deepens as Western Aid Falters

The Ongoing Conflict in Ukraine

As of November 3, 2024, the conflict in Ukraine continues with Russian forces advancing along the line of contact. Western media is increasingly acknowledging the growing crisis facing Ukraine's military, while some outlets engage in questionable propaganda efforts.

Current Situation on the Ground

According to pro-Ukrainian sources like LiveUAmap, Russian forces continue to make incremental gains:

• West of Donetsk city, a large salient is expanding in all directions
• More small cities are being captured or encircled by Russian troops
• The Russian Ministry of Defense is claiming control over newly taken territory
• The heavily defended Ukrainian position of New York has fallen to Russian forces
• Russian troops are working to envelop urban areas in this region

Even Western media outlets are starting to admit the dire situation for Ukraine in its own territory. However, some are attempting to shift focus to Ukrainian incursions into Russia's Belgorod region as a distraction from Ukraine's losses.

The Reality of Cross-Border Operations

Some Western analysts claim Ukrainian forces have an advantage when operating on Russian soil, arguing they face less pressure to defend everywhere. However, this ignores several key factors:

• The incursions into Belgorod have achieved no strategic gains for Ukraine
• These operations have drawn valuable manpower and equipment away from defending Ukrainian territory
• Russian forces are patiently and methodically grinding down Ukrainian units in these border areas
• Ukraine is bleeding personnel and losing its best equipment with nothing to show for it

Ultimately, these cross-border raids appear to be politically motivated stunts that are costing Ukraine strategically rather than providing any real military benefit.

Western Military Aid Falls Short

A major factor impacting the conflict is the insufficiency of Western military aid to Ukraine. Despite ongoing announcements of support, the actual deliveries are not meeting Ukraine's needs on the battlefield.

Latest US Aid Package

The most recent US security assistance package for Ukraine, announced on November 1, 2024, contains many of the same items seen in previous months:

• Munitions for air defense systems
• Stinger anti-aircraft missiles
• Counter-drone systems
• Artillery ammunition
• Anti-armor weapons
• Small arms and ammunition
• Spare parts and other support equipment

Notably absent are any new major weapons systems or increased quantities of critical items. This reflects the reality that the US is now providing only a percentage of its monthly production, having depleted its stockpiles.

European Production Shortfalls

European allies are also struggling to meet their commitments for military aid to Ukraine. A July 2024 report from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty revealed that EU artillery shell production capacity may be less than half of what was publicly claimed by senior EU officials.

Even if European production targets were met, combined with projected US increases, it would still fall short of Russia's current manufacturing output. This production gap is a key factor in Ukraine's inability to sustain its war effort.

Questionable Plans for Defense Production in Ukraine

Several recent announcements have touted plans to establish defense manufacturing capabilities within Ukraine itself. However, these proposals face significant challenges and may be more about generating profits than providing real military support.

Rheinmetall's Ambitious Factory Plans

German defense contractor Rheinmetall announced plans in October 2024 to establish four production plants in Ukraine for:

• Lynx infantry fighting vehicles
• Ammunition (likely artillery shells)
• Air defense systems

However, the feasibility of these projects is highly questionable:

• Building large-scale manufacturing facilities would take years, not months
• Any substantial factory would be an obvious target for Russian strikes
• Existing facilities appear to be little more than garages for basic maintenance
• Claims of "joint production" seem to be exaggerated marketing rather than reality

Norway's Artillery Shell Production Scheme

Norway announced plans to finance the production of NATO-standard 155mm artillery shells in Ukraine through a partnership with Nammo. However, this faces similar obstacles:

• Establishing new ammunition production lines is complex and time-consuming
• Existing European shell manufacturers are already struggling to meet demand
• Any large facility would be vulnerable to Russian attacks

The Reality of Russia's Targeting Capabilities

Russia has demonstrated an increasing ability to locate and destroy Ukrainian military-industrial targets throughout the country. Western analysts acknowledge this capability:

• Large factories have been systematically targeted
• Medium-sized facilities and their suppliers are also being hit
• Even small workshops producing drones are being found and destroyed
• Russia's intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance (ISR) cycle has become very rapid
• Commercial satellite imagery may be providing additional targeting data

This reality makes any plans for large-scale defense production within Ukraine extremely risky and likely unfeasible.

Profiting from Ukraine's Demise

The pattern of announcing ambitious but unrealistic defense production plans in Ukraine bears a striking resemblance to previous instances of war profiteering:

• Billions were spent on "reconstruction" in Afghanistan with little to show for it
• Contractors pocketed vast sums while delivering minimal results
• Similar dynamics appear to be at play with some of the Ukraine aid efforts

While Ukraine desperately needs military support, many of these production schemes seem designed more to generate profits than to provide timely, practical assistance on the battlefield.

The Fundamental Problem: Profit vs. Purpose

At the core of the West's struggles to effectively support Ukraine is a misalignment of priorities in its defense industrial base:

• Western defense firms prioritize profit maximization over military effectiveness
• This leads to inefficient production and inflated costs
• Russia's defense industry, while not ignoring profits, prioritizes military purpose
• This allows for more rapid scaling of production to meet wartime needs

Until the West realigns its defense industrial priorities, it will likely continue to struggle in confrontations with adversaries like Russia that have more purpose-driven military production capabilities.

Looking Ahead: Limited Options for the West

As Ukraine's position continues to deteriorate, the collective West faces difficult choices:

• Continuing the current level of support is proving insufficient
• Dramatically scaling up aid would require fundamental economic and industrial changes
• Abandoning Ukraine entirely could damage Western credibility
• Establishing a "buffer zone" in western Ukraine risks direct confrontation with Russia

The situation remains fluid, but barring major shifts in Western policy and industrial capacity, Ukraine's long-term prospects in the conflict appear increasingly grim.

Conclusion

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has exposed significant shortcomings in the West's ability to sustain a proxy war against a peer competitor like Russia. While arms manufacturers may be profiting, the military situation on the ground continues to move in Russia's favor.

Without a fundamental reorientation of Western defense industrial priorities and capabilities, it seems unlikely that the current trend can be reversed. The coming months may prove decisive as Ukraine's ability to resist continues to erode in the face of persistent Russian advances and insufficient Western support.

Article created from: https://youtu.be/crGM6-dsZ6o?feature=shared