Ukraine's Military Collapse: The Deteriorating Situation in 2025

As 2025 begins, the conflict in Ukraine continues to grind on with no end in sight. However, the trajectory of the war has shifted decidedly in Russia's favor over the past year, with Ukraine's military facing an increasingly dire situation.

Russia's Continued Territorial Gains

Even pro-Ukrainian sources like LiveUAMap show Russian forces making steady gains along the line of contact. Over just the past week, Russia has expanded its control in several key areas:

• In the Donetsk region, Russian forces have pushed westward from Donetsk city, taking Avdiivka and advancing towards Pokrovsk. This salient continues to grow, absorbing more Ukrainian-held territory.

• In southern Ukraine, Russia has pushed back Ukrainian forces that had established a bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian foothold there has shrunk significantly.

• Overall, Russia continues to make incremental but steady advances across multiple sectors of the front.

These territorial gains reflect the deteriorating capacity of Ukraine's armed forces to hold ground and counter Russian offensives. As 2025 progresses, this trend of Russian advances is likely to not just continue but accelerate.

Collapse of Ukraine's Military Capabilities

Several factors are contributing to the erosion of Ukraine's fighting capacity:

Manpower Shortages

Ukraine is facing a severe shortage of trained military personnel. After nearly three years of high-intensity combat, Ukraine has depleted much of its pre-war cadre of experienced soldiers and officers. Efforts to quickly train and deploy new recruits have failed to fill the gaps.

President Zelensky has admitted Ukraine is losing up to 300 troops per day in the heaviest fighting. At that rate, Ukraine is losing the equivalent of two full brigades worth of manpower each month. No amount of Western training programs can offset such losses.

Mass Desertions

Compounding the manpower crisis, Ukraine is seeing alarming rates of desertion across its armed forces. According to figures from Ukraine's General Prosecutor's Office, over 990,000 cases have been opened into instances of soldiers going AWOL or deserting since 2022, with a sharp increase over the past year.

Many soldiers are leaving due to poor conditions, lack of rotation off the front lines, and inadequate supplies and ammunition. This has forced Ukraine to offer amnesty to deserters in exchange for returning to duty - a sign of how desperate the situation has become.

Failed Western Training Efforts

Western efforts to quickly train new Ukrainian units have largely failed to produce combat-effective formations. A prime example is the French-trained 155th Brigade:

• France pledged to train and equip a full brigade of 4,500 Ukrainian troops in 2024
• Only about 2,000 actually completed training before the unit was rushed to the front
• Within weeks of deployment, up to 1,700 soldiers had deserted
• The brigade suffered from severe leadership and equipment issues

This mirrors the fate of other Western-trained formations that have been quickly chewed up in combat against Russian forces. The reality is that it takes years, not months, to build effective military units - time Ukraine does not have.

Equipment and Ammunition Shortages

Despite continued Western aid, Ukraine faces chronic shortages of arms, ammunition, and equipment:

• Artillery ammunition remains in critically short supply, with Ukraine unable to match Russia's rate of fire
• Advanced Western weapons like Leopard tanks and HIMARS have failed to be game-changers
• Air defense missiles and anti-tank weapons are being consumed faster than they can be replaced
• Even basic supplies like drones, communications gear, and medical equipment are lacking

The West simply lacks the industrial capacity to supply Ukraine at the scale needed to match Russia's military production. This gap will only widen as the conflict drags on.

Russia's Strengthening Position

In contrast to Ukraine's deteriorating situation, Russia has managed to strengthen its military position over the past year:

Expanded Manpower

Russia has successfully expanded its military manpower through a combination of mobilization, recruitment campaigns, and reportedly even foreign fighters. This has allowed Russia to not just replace losses but expand its forces.

Industrial Mobilization

Russia's military industry has ramped up production to meet wartime demands. Artillery ammunition, drones, armored vehicles, and other key equipment are being manufactured at much higher rates than before the war.

Tactical Adaptations

Russian forces have adapted their tactics to be more effective against Ukrainian defenses, making better use of drones, electronic warfare, and combined arms operations. This has increased their combat effectiveness.

Strategic Patience

Russia has adopted a strategy of attrition, grinding down Ukrainian forces through sustained pressure rather than seeking rapid breakthroughs. This approach plays to Russia's advantages in manpower and industrial capacity.

Implications for 2025

As the military balance continues to shift in Russia's favor, Ukraine and its Western backers face difficult choices in 2025:

For Ukraine:

• Mobilize even more of its population, potentially drafting 18-year-olds and older men
• Implement harsher punishments for desertion and draft evasion
• Potentially seek a negotiated settlement while it still holds some leverage

For the West:

• Dramatically increase military aid, which may not be politically or economically feasible
• Consider direct military intervention, risking a wider war with Russia
• Push Ukraine towards negotiations and potential territorial concessions

The most likely outcome appears to be continued gradual Russian advances coupled with a slow-motion collapse of Ukraine's military capabilities. This could eventually force Ukraine to the negotiating table from a position of weakness.

However, the situation remains highly volatile. The potential for Western military intervention or other dramatic escalations cannot be ruled out as Ukraine's position becomes more desperate.

Conclusion

As 2025 unfolds, the trajectory of the Ukraine conflict appears increasingly clear. Barring a major change in Western support or direct intervention, Ukraine's ability to resist Russian military pressure is likely to continue eroding. The choices facing Ukraine and its allies will only become more difficult as Russia's advantage grows.

The coming months will be critical in determining whether the conflict grinds towards a Russian victory, escalates into a wider war, or moves towards a negotiated settlement. What is certain is that 2025 will be another year of intense fighting and suffering for those caught in this grinding war of attrition.

Article created from: https://youtu.be/bNtfKhLnE2E?feature=shared