Ukraine's Looming Defeat and Western Delusions

The situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate rapidly for Ukrainian forces, with signs of collapse and demoralization becoming increasingly apparent. Meanwhile, Western leaders seem detached from reality, floating unrealistic proposals that are disconnected from the realities on the ground.

Recent reports indicate widespread problems in the Ukrainian military:

• Many Ukrainian troops refused to reinforce Avdiivka before it fell, leaving the 72nd Brigade to fight alone despite being exhausted.

• There are reports of mutinies and protests by Ukrainian soldiers complaining of poor training and equipment.

• Former Zelensky advisor Arestovich predicts a total collapse of the Ukrainian army within 3-4 months.

• Ukrainian commentators acknowledge the situation is catastrophic, but still seem reluctant to accept the underlying reality that Russia is simply too strong.

• There is much criticism of Ukrainian military leadership, but few concrete alternative proposals.

On the battlefield, Russian forces continue to make steady advances:

• Russians now control Tonenke south of Avdiivka
• Storming of Berdychi north of Avdiivka has begun
• Operation to encircle Chasiv Yar is underway
• Further breakthroughs reported in the Toretsk area
• Russians have reached the Oskil River east of Kupyansk
• Advances continue north of Kupyansk towards Kharkiv region

Meanwhile, Western leaders seem to be floating unrealistic proposals detached from the realities on the ground. A recent Financial Times article outlined ideas being discussed in Western circles:

• Offering Ukraine NATO membership for territory currently controlled, while not recognizing Russian control of occupied areas
• Using the West Germany model of NATO membership with "provisional" borders
• Presenting this to Russia as a "fait accompli"

However, these proposals ignore several key realities:

1. Ukraine itself has not agreed to cede any territory
2. Russia would never accept such an arrangement
3. It would put NATO in an impossible position of either fighting Russia or exposing Article 5 as meaningless
4. The situation is completely different from post-WWII Germany or Japan

The article demonstrates how detached Western thinking has become from the realities in Ukraine. Rather than face the fact that Ukraine is losing the war, Western leaders are debating unrealistic schemes among themselves.

What is needed is for Western leaders to finally be realistic about the situation. As analyst Jeff Roberts has argued, the West should seek to come to terms with Russia while the terms are still reasonable, rather than risk a total Ukrainian collapse.

The longer Western leaders remain in denial about Ukraine's prospects, the worse the eventual outcome is likely to be. Time is running out for a negotiated settlement that preserves Ukrainian statehood. Unless Western thinking becomes more grounded in reality soon, Ukraine may be facing a total defeat with disastrous consequences.

In summary, the disconnect between the deteriorating situation on the ground in Ukraine and the unrealistic proposals being floated in Western circles is stark. Western leaders urgently need to face reality and seek a negotiated end to the conflict before it's too late.

Article created from: https://youtu.be/5mrnnRvYvsM?feature=shared