Ukraine's Southwestern Front Collapses as Russia Advances

Russia Makes Major Gains in Southwestern Donbas

Reports from multiple sources indicate that Ukrainian defenses have collapsed in key areas of southwestern Donbas over the past 24 hours. If confirmed, October 26-27, 2024 may come to be seen as a particularly dark period for the Ukrainian military in this conflict.

Key Towns Fall to Russian Forces

The towns of Selovo and Gornyak (also known as Gnyak) have reportedly fallen to Russian forces after Ukrainian resistance collapsed suddenly and chaotically. While there may still be isolated pockets of Ukrainian troops in these areas, it appears to be only a matter of hours before Russia secures full control.

The manner in which these towns fell is particularly concerning for Ukraine. There are reports of recently mobilized Ukrainian soldiers breaking and fleeing rather than resisting the Russian advance. Those attempting to escape had to do so across open fields and roads dominated by Russian drones, patrols, artillery, and anti-tank guided missiles.

Collapse Spreads to Nearby Areas

The collapse has apparently spread to other nearby areas as well. The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed capturing several villages northwest of Kurov, including:

• Alexandropil
• Zoran
• Ismivka

Only two villages in this area - Kurakova and Vinka - remain under Ukrainian control, but Russian forces are reportedly already fighting inside them. Given the chaotic state of Ukrainian defenses, it's unclear how long they can hold out.

Russians Advance South of Kurakov Reservoir

The situation is equally dire for Ukraine south of the Kurakov Reservoir. Reports indicate Russian forces have captured or are on the verge of capturing:

• Boroylena
• Shakasa
• Nova Uka

If confirmed, this opens the way for a potential encirclement of Kurakov itself. There are still significant Ukrainian forces in Kurakov, but their position is becoming increasingly precarious.

Implications of the Collapse

The sudden collapse of Ukrainian defenses in this area has major implications:

1. It puts the entire Ukrainian battle group in this region at risk of encirclement.

2. Some Ukrainian officers are already discussing the need to prepare for a potential retreat to the Dnieper River.

3. If Russian forces reach the Dnieper in this area, it would be a disaster for Ukraine. It could signal the potential loss of all of eastern Ukraine east of the Dnieper.

4. The chaotic nature of the collapse argues against the idea that this is a carefully planned Ukrainian withdrawal. Rather, it appears to be isolated Ukrainian garrisons trying to withstand an overwhelming Russian advance.

Russian Tactics and Momentum

The Russian advance in this area demonstrates a shift in tactics compared to earlier in the war:

• Rather than frontal assaults, Russian forces are using more sophisticated maneuvers to isolate and encircle Ukrainian positions.

• The Russians appear to have numerical superiority in men, equipment, and firepower in this sector.

• While the Russian advance sometimes slows to deal with logistics, there is no fundamental reason to expect it to stop before reaching the Dnieper River.

Diplomatic Situation

Despite the deteriorating military situation, there is little sign of serious diplomatic efforts to end the conflict:

• Ukrainian President Zelensky has made vague proposals about negotiating an end to attacks on energy infrastructure, but nothing concrete has emerged.

• Russian President Putin says he is open to talks but has no confidence in Ukraine following through on agreements.

• Western nations remain divided on how to proceed, with some still pushing for increased military aid while others advocate for negotiations.

• There is growing panic in Europe about the possibility of Donald Trump winning the 2024 US election and potentially cutting off aid to Ukraine.

Conclusion

The sudden collapse of Ukrainian defenses in southwestern Donbas represents a major turning point in the conflict. Unless the situation can be quickly stabilized, Ukraine risks losing control of large swathes of territory east of the Dnieper River. The chaotic nature of the retreat also raises serious questions about the current state and future prospects of the Ukrainian military.

Despite the gravity of the situation, there appears to be little appetite for serious negotiations to end the conflict. Western nations remain divided on how to proceed, while Russia maintains momentum on the battlefield. Without a dramatic shift in the military balance or a renewed push for diplomacy, the outlook for Ukraine appears increasingly bleak.

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