UK's Dangerous Push for Long-Range Missile Strikes on Russia

The UK's Obsession with Long-Range Missile Strikes on Russia

The United Kingdom's government, particularly Labour leader Keir Starmer, has become fixated on gaining approval for launching Storm Shadow missiles into pre-2014 Russian territory. This push for long-range missile strikes has raised concerns among allies and experts, who warn of the potential for escalation and direct conflict with Russia.

Keir Starmer's Crusade

Keir Starmer has made this issue a personal mission, going so far as to meet with US President Joe Biden and his staff to seek approval for the missile strikes. Despite not receiving the desired outcome from this meeting, Starmer remains undeterred. Reports indicate that he now plans to tour Italy, Germany, and France in an attempt to convince these countries to support his plan.

This persistence comes even as France, Italy, and Germany have either explicitly stated or strongly hinted that they want no part in long-range missile strikes on pre-2014 Russian territory. Starmer's determination in the face of such opposition highlights the extent of his obsession with this strategy.

The British Government's Stance

While the British government maintains that these potential strikes would be carried out by Ukraine using British missiles, rather than by Britain itself, a revealing article in the London Times suggests otherwise. The article states that "Britain cannot launch missiles against Russia by itself; it needs American help to do it." This phrasing implies direct British involvement, rather than merely supplying weapons to Ukraine.

The article, based on high-level briefings including those from within the British Defense Ministry, provides insight into the government's true intentions and capabilities regarding these potential strikes.

Opposition from Within

Despite Starmer's determination, there is significant opposition to this plan within the UK government itself. The Foreign Office has advised Starmer that Britain is overreaching on this issue and needs to align more closely with its allies. However, according to the Times article, Starmer rejected this advice, choosing instead to push forward with his plan.

Former National Security Advisor and former Ambassador to Washington, Lord Darroch, has also spoken out against the idea, warning of potential consequences and complications. These voices of caution, however, seem to have little impact on Starmer's resolve.

The Role of US Officials

Interestingly, the Times article reveals that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken encouraged Starmer to pursue this course of action. This aligns with previous observations that Blinken and certain neoconservative elements within the US government are supportive of the idea.

However, when Starmer arrived in Washington expecting approval based on Blinken's encouragement, he was met with rejection. The article suggests that National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is the primary obstacle, exercising influence over President Biden and the US government to prevent approval of these strikes.

European Reluctance

Major European powers have expressed clear opposition to the idea of long-range missile strikes on Russian territory. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has explicitly ruled out supplying Taurus missiles to Ukraine or authorizing such strikes. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has echoed this sentiment.

In France, where the Storm Shadow missile originated, public opinion and much of the political class now oppose such actions. This shift in sentiment, particularly after recent parliamentary elections, makes French support for the plan unlikely.

Technical Challenges and Russian Warnings

The Times article also revealed crucial technical information about the Storm Shadow missiles. Due to Russian jamming of GPS signals, the missiles can only penetrate Russian defenses using ground-mapping technology that relies on American satellites. This dependency on US technology aligns with recent warnings from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Putin stated that Ukraine cannot launch Storm Shadow missiles independently and requires NATO personnel to format the missiles. The Times article essentially confirms this claim, highlighting the necessary American involvement in providing satellite data and potentially formatting the missiles.

The Real Objective: Involving the United States

The underlying motivation for the UK's push for these missile strikes becomes clear when considering the broader context of the conflict in Ukraine. With Ukraine facing increasing difficulties on the battlefield, the British strategy appears to be an attempt to draw the United States directly into the war.

By launching Storm Shadow missiles against Russia with necessary American technical support, the UK hopes to create a situation that forces greater US involvement. This strategy is reminiscent of earlier attempts by French President Emmanuel Macron to escalate Western involvement in the conflict.

Pentagon Resistance

While some US officials, like Secretary Blinken, may be open to increased involvement, the Pentagon has shown resistance to the idea. Military leaders understand the risks of direct conflict with Russia and the potential for retaliation against American assets worldwide.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who must consider the Pentagon's input, has reportedly become skeptical of the possibility of a Ukrainian victory. This shift in perspective has led to a more cautious approach from key US decision-makers.

British Defense Ministry's Stance

Contrary to the caution exhibited by the Foreign Office, reports suggest that the UK Defense Ministry is encouraging Starmer to pursue this strategy. Former ministers and current officials within the defense and security establishment are actively lobbying for the missile strikes, even suggesting that Britain should act unilaterally if necessary.

This push from the Defense Ministry underscores the extent to which certain elements within the British government have invested in the conflict in Ukraine. The potential defeat of Ukraine is seen as an unacceptable outcome, particularly given the historical tensions between Britain and Russia.

The Broader Strategy

The ultimate goal of this strategy, from the perspective of Ukraine and its most ardent supporters, is to pull the United States more deeply into the conflict. There is a recognition that without direct US involvement, Ukraine's chances of success are slim.

However, even US officials who previously supported escalation, such as Jake Sullivan, now appear to understand that the conflict is effectively lost for Ukraine. The focus has shifted to maintaining the current situation until after the US elections, rather than pursuing an outright victory.

Dwindling Resources and Support

The push for these missile strikes comes against a backdrop of dwindling resources and support for Ukraine. The Netherlands, for example, has announced that it lacks Patriot missiles to provide to Ukraine, despite previous discussions about supplying air defense systems.

Funding for Ukraine is also becoming increasingly scarce, with US publications noting that even a potential Harris administration in 2024 would struggle to secure additional funds for the conflict.

British Political Motivations

The insistence on supporting Ukraine and confronting Russia stems from the British political class's desire to maintain the UK's status as a world power. By positioning themselves as key players in the conflict with Russia, British politicians aim to project strength and importance on the global stage.

This mindset is deeply ingrained in a political establishment that still clings to memories of Britain's imperial past and great power status. The potential defeat of Ukraine is seen not just as a setback for that country, but as a humiliation for Britain itself.

Public Opinion vs. Political Class

Interestingly, the British public's enthusiasm for the conflict in Ukraine has waned significantly since the early days of 2022. The ubiquitous displays of Ukrainian flags and pro-Ukrainian sentiment have largely disappeared, replaced by more pressing domestic concerns.

The public has become increasingly skeptical of Britain's involvement in the conflict, recognizing the economic and strategic costs. Rising energy prices, vast expenditures, and potential exposure of British banks to Ukrainian loans have all contributed to this shift in public opinion.

The Role of Boris Johnson

Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson continues to play a visible role in advocating for Ukraine, recently visiting Kyiv. His motivations appear to be a combination of maintaining his public profile and securing lucrative speaking engagements and consultancy roles.

By continuing to present himself as a key figure in the Ukraine conflict, Johnson preserves the illusion of his ongoing importance on the world stage. This strategy allows him to secure invitations to conferences and maintain his relevance in international circles.

Conclusion

The UK's push for long-range missile strikes on Russian territory represents a dangerous escalation in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Driven by a combination of political ambition, historical rivalries, and a desire to maintain global influence, key figures in the British government are pursuing a strategy that risks drawing NATO into direct conflict with Russia.

Despite warnings from allies, internal opposition, and a shift in public opinion, leaders like Keir Starmer remain committed to this course of action. The technical realities of launching such strikes, which would require American involvement, further complicate the situation and increase the risk of wider conflict.

As resources for Ukraine dwindle and support wanes in other European countries, the UK's insistence on this strategy appears increasingly out of step with the broader international community. The coming months will likely see continued debate and diplomatic maneuvering around this issue, with potentially far-reaching consequences for European security and global stability.

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