The Depletion of Russia's Artillery Arsenal: An In-Depth Analysis

The Toll of Conflict on Russia's Artillery Stockpile

As the conflict in Ukraine persists, Russia's artillery losses have become a subject of increasing scrutiny. Recently surpassing the significant figure of 1,000 units lost, according to ORS, the durability of Russia's artillery reserves has been thrown into question. Historically, Russia has boasted the world's largest artillery arsenal, but the real extent of these losses likely surpasses reported figures due to their operational range and the wear and tear from heavy usage, including breakdowns, barrel damage, and catastrophic failures.

The Struggle for Accurate Data

Obtaining recent, high-resolution satellite imagery to assess the current state of Russia's artillery storage has been a formidable challenge. Extreme winter conditions in Russia, characterized by short days, limited sunlight, and frequent overcast skies, have compounded the difficulty of this task. Nevertheless, by purchasing satellite images, some partially obscured or cloud-covered, and relying on medium-resolution satellites for clearer images, a relatively accurate estimate of the remaining artillery has been achieved, albeit with a small margin of error.

Types of Artillery Assessed:

• Self-propelled artillery
• Towed artillery

Key Findings

The investigation revealed significant reductions in both self-propelled and towed artillery across several bases:

• The 94th base, the largest for self-propelled artillery, saw nearly a 1,000 unit reduction in self-propelled and over 1,300 in towed artillery.
• The 120th base experienced a decrease of around 120 self-propelled guns (SPGs) and 240 towed units.
• The 80th base, initially boasting a considerable stockpile, showed a minimal reduction in SPGs but over 800 less in towed artillery.

This pattern of depletion continued across various other bases, highlighting the extensive use and loss of artillery in the conflict.

The Future of Russia's Artillery

Based on the current rate of artillery withdrawal from storage, Russia could deplete its towed artillery in approximately a year and a half, and its self-propelled artillery in just under four years. However, this projection does not account for artillery in active service, which could extend the timeline. It's important to note that a significant portion of the remaining artillery in storage may be in poor condition and beyond salvage.

Factors Influencing Longevity

Several factors could potentially extend the life span of Russia's artillery arsenal:

• A substantial portion of the towed artillery loss was attributed to mortars, which, while considered artillery, have different operational uses and values.
• Russia might prioritize the preservation of self-propelled artillery, given its higher value and interchangeability of barrels with towed versions.
• The pre-war active service predominantly utilized self-propelled artillery, meaning the towed units were largely pulled from storage for the conflict, suggesting a slower future rate of depletion.

Conclusion

Despite substantial losses, Russia's artillery stockpile remains formidable and is likely to sustain its military efforts for years to come. This analysis underscores the resilience of Russia's artillery capabilities, even as it faces unprecedented challenges in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

For more detailed insights and the methodology behind this analysis, check the original video here.