Russia's Strategy of Attrition in Ukraine: Analyzing the Conflict's Latest Developments

The Current State of the Ukraine Conflict

As of September 15, 2024, the conflict in Ukraine continues to grind on, with Ukrainian forces facing increasing challenges both along the line of contact and in their occupation of a small section of Russia's Kursk region. This article will examine the current battlefield situation and potential next steps for the United States in perpetuating this conflict.

The Battlefield Situation

According to pro-Ukrainian sources like LiveUAmap, the picture for Ukraine is becoming increasingly bleak:

• Russian forces continue to make progress in multiple areas along the front line
• A salient west of Donetsk city towards Pokrovsk is expanding
• Russian forces are working to encircle the heavily fortified Ukrainian position at Avdiivka
• Fighting continues west of Bakhmut and towards Kupyansk
• Russia maintains a newer front north of Kharkiv city

The Kursk Incursion

Ukraine's recent incursion into Russia's Kursk region appears to be faltering:

• Initially seen as a bold move, the incursion is now viewed as a strategic blunder
• Russian forces have surrounded the Ukrainian presence on three sides
• Ukraine's attempts to destroy bridges and prevent Russian reinforcements have failed
• The incursion has accelerated the collapse of Ukrainian forces along the main front line

Analysis from Western Sources

Recent reports from Western media and analysts paint an increasingly grim picture for Ukraine:

Foreign Affairs - September 2, 2024

An article by Michael Kofman and Rob Lee initially examined potential rewards of the Kursk incursion, but these prospects quickly unraveled:

• The incursion failed to draw significant Russian forces from Ukraine's eastern regions
• It's unclear how Ukraine can translate tactical success into strategic gains
• The operation risks diverting resources from critical defensive efforts in Donbas

CNN - September 8, 2024

CNN reported on widespread morale issues and desertion among Ukrainian forces:

• 2.5 years of Russia's offensive have decimated many Ukrainian units
• Reinforcements are scarce, leaving soldiers exhausted and demoralized
• The situation is particularly dire among infantry units near Pokrovsk and elsewhere on the eastern front
• Desertion and insubordination are becoming widespread problems, especially among new recruits

The Economist - September 8, 2024

The Economist highlighted the faltering Ukrainian front line:

• Russian forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian defenders
• Logistics for Ukrainian forces along the front line are severely strained
• Russia holds numerical advantages and superiority in drones and electronic warfare

BBC - September 14, 2024

The BBC reported on Ukrainian warnings of encirclement as Russia advances in the east:

• Russian forces continue to make progress towards Pokrovsk
• The closer they get to urban areas, the slower but more methodical their advance becomes

The United States' Role and Strategy

The conflict in Ukraine is part of a broader U.S. strategy aimed at containing and weakening Russia:

• The ultimate goal is to encircle, contain, overextend, divide, and potentially destroy Russia
• This strategy is part of a wider global approach to eliminate peer and near-peer competitors
• The U.S. is considering approving Ukraine's use of long-range Western weapons against targets in Russia

The Rand Corporation's "Extending Russia" Report

A 2019 Rand Corporation paper titled "Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground" outlined various options for pressuring Russia, many of which have since been implemented:

• Providing lethal aid to Ukraine
• Supporting Syrian rebels
• Promoting regime change in Belarus
• Exploiting tensions in the South Caucasus
• Reducing Russian influence in Central Asia
• Conducting influence operations within Russia

The Broader Geopolitical Context

It's crucial to understand that the Ukraine conflict is not occurring in isolation:

• The U.S. is pursuing a multi-faceted strategy against Russia, including attempts at internal destabilization
• Russia is responding by strengthening international partnerships, particularly through BRICS
• The conflict has implications for U.S. strategy towards other competitors, especially China

Conclusion

As the Ukraine conflict enters its third year, Russia's strategy of attrition appears to be yielding results. Ukrainian forces are struggling with low morale, equipment shortages, and faltering defenses. The recent incursion into Kursk, while initially seen as a bold move, has likely accelerated Ukraine's military decline.

Meanwhile, the United States continues to pursue a broader strategy of weakening Russia through various means, both military and non-military. However, Russia's resilience and growing international partnerships present significant challenges to this approach.

As the situation evolves, it will be critical to monitor not only the battlefield developments but also the wider geopolitical implications of this protracted conflict.

Article created from: https://youtu.be/ceXNDRlfd7E?feature=shared