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Start for freeThe Russian offensive in Ukraine has seen significant advances in recent weeks, particularly in the Donbas region. Key developments include:
Situation in Bakhmut Area
- Russians have entered Klishchiivka, a small town south of the E50 highway from Donetsk to Bakhmut
- Fighting ongoing in Klishchiivka, with Ukrainian garrison reportedly small and lacking fortifications
- Russians likely to capture Klishchiivka relatively quickly
- Reports of Russian capture or near-capture of villages Andriivka and Kurdyumivka south of Klishchiivka
Advances Towards Bakhmut
- Russian forces of around 40,000 troops closing in on Bakhmut itself
- Ukrainians struggling to hold back superior Russian numbers and materiel
- Russians clearing villages north and west of Bakhmut along main supply road to Kostiantynivka
- Multi-pronged Russian attack on Bakhmut expected once surrounding villages are secured
Situation in Avdiivka
- Russians advancing within Avdiivka after repelling Ukrainian counterattack
- Russians now control about a third of Avdiivka
- Avdiivka likely to fall under full Russian control in coming days
Northern Front Developments
- Russians in control of all of Novomykhailivka
- Russian troops and vehicles seen in central square of Novomykhailivka
- Reports of Russian capture of villages Karlivka and Pervomaiske
- Russians advancing towards Krasnohorivka
Overall Strategic Picture
- Russian forces making steady progress across multiple fronts
- Ukrainian resistance weakening due to attrition and loss of equipment
- Potential for significant Russian breakthroughs in coming weeks
Analysis of Maneuver Warfare
- Current conflict characterized by prolonged attrition rather than rapid maneuver warfare
- Maneuver warfare becomes possible when one side gains significant material advantage
- Russian advances accelerating as effects of attrition on Ukrainian forces become more visible
Economic Situation in Russia
- Russian economy continuing to grow despite sanctions
- Finance Minister predicting 3.9-4% GDP growth for current year
- Central Bank aiming to slow growth to control inflation
International Developments
- Turkey formally applying to join BRICS group
- Potential for further economic strengthening of Russia in coming year
The situation in Ukraine continues to evolve rapidly, with Russian forces making significant gains across multiple fronts. The coming weeks and months will likely see further advances as the effects of attrition on Ukrainian forces become more pronounced.
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