Russia's Advance on Pokrovsk: Shifting Dynamics in Ukraine Conflict

As of September 22, 2024, the conflict in Ukraine continues with Russian forces making incremental gains along the line of contact, particularly towards the urban area of Pokrovsk. Western media sources, citing Ukrainian claims, suggest that Ukraine has managed to halt the Russian advance on Pokrovsk. However, the reality is that Russian forces are now so close that the situation has transitioned from an approach to Pokrovsk to a siege of the city.

The Current Situation in Pokrovsk

Pokrovsk, a logistics base and major transport hub for Ukraine's Armed Forces, is now under imminent threat from Russian forces. Multiple roads and rail lines intersect in Pokrovsk, making it a crucial point for moving troops, food, and ammunition to other parts of an overstretched front line. The city's fate is closely tied to that of Donetsk Province as a whole.

According to Western sources, Russian troops are now a mere 6 miles (about 10 km) away from Pokrovsk. Virtually every heavy weapon system Russia possesses is now within range of the city. There is constant noise from incoming and outgoing shells, and Russian warplanes have recently targeted bridges in and around Pokrovsk, setting the stage for a potential future frontal attack.

Ukrainian Perspective

Ukrainian military officials claim that Russia's momentum has slowed in recent weeks. A Ukrainian artillery commander interviewed by Western media stated that while Russian forces are still moving forward, their advance has less potential than before. However, this assessment may not fully account for the tactical realities of urban warfare.

As Russian forces approach a heavily fortified urban center like Pokrovsk, it's natural for their advance to slow down. Urban environments are more easily defended and require a different approach compared to advances across open country or through small towns and villages. This change in pace does not necessarily indicate a loss of Russian momentum, but rather a shift in tactics as they prepare for urban combat.

Western Support and Its Limitations

Recent reports from Western media sources, including CNN, have highlighted growing concerns about the ability of the United States and its allies to continue supplying Ukraine with the necessary weapons and equipment. These reports cite dwindling stockpiles and production limitations as major factors.

Key points from these reports include:

• US military aid packages for Ukraine have been smaller in recent months due to depleted stockpiles.
• Concerns about US military readiness are impacting decisions on what can be sent to Ukraine.
• The Pentagon lacks sufficient inventory to deliver aid, despite available funds.
• Replenishment of key items like 155mm ammunition and Patriot missile systems is a years-long process.
• Current US production of 155mm shells (40,000 per month) is still far below the goal of 100,000 per month.
• Ukraine is feeling the impact of these inventory shortages, particularly in air defense systems.

Russian Production Capabilities

In contrast to the challenges faced by Western countries in supplying Ukraine, Russia has reportedly expanded its military-industrial production significantly since the conflict began. Western media sources that previously claimed Russia would quickly exhaust its missile stockpiles now acknowledge that Russia is firing more missiles than ever before.

This disparity in production capabilities can be attributed to fundamental differences in how the Russian and Western military-industrial complexes are organized:

• Russia's state-owned military-industrial base prioritizes meeting state needs for national defense over profit maximization.
• Western defense industries, primarily privately owned, focus on maximizing profits, often resulting in smaller quantities of highly expensive weapons.
• Russia has invested in industrial capacity anticipating potential future needs, while private Western corporations are less likely to make such investments due to profit considerations.

Strategic Implications

The current situation around Pokrovsk and the broader issues of military supply highlight several key strategic points:

1. The siege of Pokrovsk represents a continuation of Russia's strategy of gradual advances and urban encirclement, similar to previous operations in Avdiivka and Bakhmut.

2. Western inability to match Russia's production rates of arms and ammunition is likely to have an increasing impact on Ukraine's defensive capabilities over time.

3. Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots, while tactically significant, do not appear to be changing the strategic trajectory of the conflict due to Russia's production capabilities.

4. Proposals to allow Ukraine to use longer-range Western missiles for strikes deep into Russian territory are unlikely to significantly alter the conflict's dynamics and could risk further escalation.

5. The idea of admitting Ukraine to NATO before the conflict's resolution, as suggested by some Western figures, presents significant risks and challenges.

Conclusion

As the conflict in Ukraine approaches its third year, the situation around Pokrovsk illustrates the evolving nature of the war. Russian forces continue to make gradual but steady progress, while Ukraine faces growing challenges in terms of manpower and equipment. The limitations of Western military support, now openly acknowledged by Western sources, suggest that a significant change in the conflict's trajectory is unlikely without a major shift in strategy or external factors.

The coming months will likely see continued Russian pressure on urban centers like Pokrovsk, testing both Ukraine's defensive capabilities and the West's ability to sustain support for Kyiv. As the conflict grinds on, the strategic implications of production capabilities, logistical challenges, and potential escalation scenarios will continue to shape the course of the war in Ukraine.

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