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Start for freeRecent Russian Missile Strikes on Ukraine
Russia recently carried out one of the largest missile attacks on Ukraine since the start of the conflict. Satellite imagery revealed strikes on key targets in Kyiv, including:
- The Artem defense plant was hit by an Iskander-M missile
- A serial production plant in Kyiv was also struck
These strikes resulted in significant civilian casualties, drawing criticism from various parties including former US President Donald Trump. He expressed displeasure with the timing of the attacks, stating they were unnecessary and poorly timed given ongoing peace negotiations.
The scale and effectiveness of these strikes raise questions about the current state of Ukraine's air defenses. With the possibility of reduced US support, Ukraine's ability to defend against such attacks may be further compromised in the future.
Proposed Peace Frameworks
Several peace frameworks have been proposed by different parties:
US Framework
Key points of the US proposal include:
- Permanent ceasefire with immediate technical implementation negotiations
- Ukrainian security guarantees from an ad hoc group of states
- Ukraine to forgo NATO membership but may pursue EU membership
- Recognition of Russian control of Crimea
- De facto recognition of Russian-controlled parts of Luhansk, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Kherson
- Ukraine to regain control of Kharkiv and the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant
- Economic cooperation between US and Ukraine, including minerals agreement
- Removal of sanctions on Russia imposed since 2014
European/Ukrainian Framework
The European and Ukrainian proposal differs in several key aspects:
- Unconditional ceasefire before any territorial discussions
- Stronger security guarantees for Ukraine, including an "Article 5-like agreement"
- No restrictions on Ukrainian defense forces or foreign military presence
- Territorial negotiations to start from current line of control
- Gradual easing of sanctions only after sustainable peace is achieved
Analysis of Proposed Frameworks
Both frameworks face significant challenges in gaining acceptance from all parties:
Russian Perspective
Even the US proposal, which is more favorable to Russia, may not be acceptable to Putin. Key issues include:
- Constitutional absorption of Crimea and four oblasts makes giving up territory politically difficult
- Putin likely wants de jure control of currently held territories, not just de facto recognition
- Opposition to any NATO-like security guarantees for Ukraine
Ukrainian Perspective
Zelensky faces major obstacles in accepting either proposal:
- Constitutional issues with recognizing Russian control of Crimea
- Lack of concrete security guarantees
- Potential loss of significant territory
Diplomatic Maneuvering
There appears to be significant diplomatic posturing from all sides:
- Putin may entertain negotiations to portray willingness while hoping for US withdrawal
- The European/Ukrainian framework aims to shift leverage by maintaining economic pressure during a ceasefire
- Trump's "art of the deal" approach may be aiming high in Russia's favor to create room for compromise
Unresolved Questions
Several critical questions remain unanswered:
- What happens if Putin rejects all proposals?
- What is Europe's plan if the US withdraws support?
- How will frozen Russian assets be handled?
- What are the long-term plans for rearming and re-industrializing Europe?
Recent Military Developments
Sumy/Kursk Oblast
- Russian forces have reportedly regained some territory near the border
- Geolocated footage confirms Russian troop presence in previously contested areas
- Analysts predict Russia may attempt to create a buffer zone similar to areas north of Kyiv
Other Fronts
- Minor Russian advances reported near Kupyansk
- Fluid situation around Toretsk with both sides making small gains
- Continued Russian pressure in multiple directions around Avdiivka
Conclusion
The current state of peace negotiations and ongoing military operations suggest the conflict is far from resolution. Major disagreements persist on key issues like territorial control and security guarantees. Meanwhile, Russia continues to launch large-scale missile strikes while making incremental gains on the ground in some areas.
Without significant shifts in position from the key players, it appears likely that the war will continue for the foreseeable future. The human and economic toll continues to mount, with no clear path to a negotiated settlement in sight.
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