Risk Gaming: Exploring Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Risk gaming is an innovative approach to exploring decision-making under uncertainty. Danny Crichton, editor-in-chief of Lux Capital's risk gaming newsletter, shares insights on how these simulations can improve strategic thinking and adaptability.

The Origins of Risk Gaming at Lux Capital

Crichton explains that the idea for risk gaming at Lux Capital emerged in late 2021, as the world was emerging from COVID-19 lockdowns:

"We want to bring together people from technology, business, science, policy all into a room together and there's this gaming tool that allows people to inhabit characters they don't normally get to do in real life and put it all together."

The goal was to create engaging scenarios that would bring diverse groups together to tackle complex challenges. The first scenario, focused on climate change and national security, was developed in early 2023. Since then, Lux has hosted numerous games with participants including generals, members of Congress, CEOs, and think tank presidents.

Key Insights from Risk Gaming Sessions

Through these simulations, some interesting patterns have emerged:

Technologists vs. Policymakers

• When playing with technologists, groups often start very cooperative but become increasingly competitive as the game progresses.
• With policymakers in Washington DC, the opposite tends to occur - they begin highly competitive but eventually learn to cooperate out of necessity.

Short-Term vs. Long-Term Thinking

In a scenario about rebuilding a shipyard in an area prone to flooding:

"Participants tended to move towards a more short-term outcome that was favorable to their character...and kind of ignored the longer term outcomes of those kind of suboptimal decision making."

This mirrors real-world challenges in business and politics, where short-term incentives often override long-term planning.

The Value of Disagreement and Debate

Crichton emphasizes the importance of fostering environments where people can professionally disagree and debate ideas:

"False sincerity, non-confrontation, passive aggressive behavior is the single worst ingredient in innovation."

He argues that creating "ecosystems of competition" and a true marketplace of ideas is crucial for progress, but increasingly rare in today's world.

Lessons on Adaptability and Planning

Reflecting on his experiences, including a stint at TechCrunch, Crichton shares some key insights:

"It's really important not to get locked into long-term plans...you can only plan so far ahead and then you go into the fog of war."

He advocates for building organizations and strategies that prioritize adaptability:

"What you really want to have confidence on is that no matter what happens you're going to learn quickly, you're going to adapt to ambiguous circumstances and you can mobilize and be effective."

The Power of Incentives

Crichton highlights how incentives shape behavior across industries and organizations:

"The incentives are everything...I try to get those to be as accurate to real life as possible and then I just let people play."

He notes that understanding and designing the right incentives is crucial for effective decision-making and organizational success.

Potential for AI in Risk Gaming

While Lux hasn't yet incorporated AI agents into their games, Crichton sees potential:

"I am curious to build more virtual experiences and that would sort of open up the floor to more AI agents being able to negotiate, understand their own incentives, etc."

He also notes the value of using AI for "steel manning" arguments and improving one's own thinking processes.

Key Takeaways for Decision-Makers

1. Embrace adaptability: In a rapidly changing world, the ability to learn quickly and adapt to new circumstances is more valuable than rigid long-term plans.

2. Foster productive disagreement: Create environments where ideas can be challenged and debated professionally.

3. Understand incentives: Recognize how incentives shape behavior at individual and organizational levels.

4. Balance short-term and long-term thinking: Be aware of the tendency to prioritize short-term gains over long-term outcomes.

5. Leverage diverse perspectives: Bringing together people from different backgrounds can lead to more robust solutions to complex problems.

6. Practice decision-making under uncertainty: Regular exposure to ambiguous situations can improve one's ability to navigate real-world challenges.

7. Consider decentralization: Smaller, more agile organizations and communities may be better equipped to adapt and innovate.

8. Recognize personal agency: Remember that individuals always have the power to make choices and influence outcomes, even in constrained circumstances.

By incorporating these lessons from risk gaming, leaders and organizations can better prepare themselves to navigate the complexities and uncertainties of our rapidly evolving world.

Article created from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sH8L22LRhno