Putin Hints at Retaliation Against Ukraine Decision-Making Centers

Putin Warns of Potential Strikes on Ukrainian Decision-Making Centers

Russian President Vladimir Putin has hinted at possible retaliation against Ukrainian decision-making centers in response to recent US and UK strikes in Crimea. Speaking at the CSTO summit in Kazakhstan, Putin suggested Russia may use its Oresnick missile or other "surprise weapons" to target key sites in Ukraine.

Russia's Missile Production Capabilities

Putin boasted that Russia produces 10 times more missiles than all NATO countries combined. While the exact figures are difficult to verify, it's clear that Russia has significantly ramped up weapons production since the start of the conflict. Putin specifically mentioned:

• Russian X-101 missiles exceed European range
• Iskander missiles match all ATACMS variants
• Oresnick missiles have been tested with "mass use comparable to nuclear impact"

The Russian president described the Oresnick as Russia's "ultimate weapon of destruction," claiming it can strike even the most heavily protected underground targets and turn them to dust.

Potential Targets for Retaliation

Putin did not specify exact targets, leaving it unclear if he was referring to:

• NATO/US decision-making centers operating in Ukraine
• Ukrainian military and government command centers

He did indicate any strikes would likely be confined to Ukrainian territory for now, avoiding direct escalation with NATO.

Closed Airspace in Astrakhan Region

Notably, the airspace in Russia's Astrakhan region, where the first Oresnick missile was fired from, has been closed until November 30th. This suggests a potential strike could occur in the coming days.

US Intelligence Assessments on Nuclear Risk

Reuters reported that US intelligence agencies have concluded over the past 7 months that allowing Ukraine to fire American weapons deeper into Russia would not significantly increase the risk of nuclear escalation.

This assessment apparently convinced the Biden administration to loosen restrictions on Ukraine's use of US-supplied weapons. However, US intelligence seemingly failed to anticipate Russia's development of new conventional weapons like the Oresnick missile.

Trump Names Ukraine Envoy

In a surprise move, former US President Donald Trump has named retired General Keith Kellogg as his envoy for Ukraine and Russia, rather than the widely expected Richard Grenell.

Kellogg is seen as a hawkish figure who previously served as an aide to Mike Pence. He has criticized the Biden administration for not arming Ukraine quickly enough and advocates continuing to supply weapons to Ukraine as a path to peace.

This choice has raised eyebrows, as Kellogg's views seem to align more closely with the current administration's approach rather than Trump's previous statements on seeking a swift resolution to the conflict.

Kellogg's Background and Policy Positions

• Former aide to Mike Pence
• Fox News contributor
• Advocate for increased military aid to Ukraine
• Reportedly involved in drafting a "freeze" plan for the conflict

The proposed freeze plan, which Russia has already rejected, involves:

• Creating an 800 km demilitarized zone
• Deploying European (not US) troops as monitors
• Delaying Ukraine's NATO membership for 10-20 years

While the choice of Kellogg may open up channels of communication between the US and Russia, his hawkish stance and involvement in plans already dismissed by Moscow raise questions about the effectiveness of this appointment.

Recent Russian Missile Strikes on Ukraine

Russia launched a major missile strike against Ukraine, targeting multiple cities including Kyiv, Lviv, and Odessa. The attack reportedly involved:

• Over 100 missiles, possibly up to 150-200
• Primarily Kalibr cruise missiles
• Strikes on energy infrastructure and military targets

Witnesses reported seeing up to 25 missiles in the air simultaneously in some areas. The strikes have resulted in widespread power outages, particularly in Lviv.

This massive strike highlights the disparity between Russia's missile capabilities and the limited number of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles provided to Ukraine by the West.

Economist Report on Ukrainian Casualties

The UK-based Economist magazine has published an estimate of Ukrainian losses in the conflict that sharply contradicts official figures:

• Total losses estimated at 500,000
• 60,000 to 100,000 killed in action
• 300,000 to 400,000 wounded or otherwise incapacitated

This report starkly contrasts with President Zelensky's claims of only 31,000 Ukrainian military deaths. The timing and source of this report have led some to speculate that it may be part of efforts by certain Western factions to undermine Zelensky's position.

US Urges Ukraine to Lower Conscription Age

On the same day as the Economist report, multiple news outlets including AP and Reuters reported that the Biden administration is urging Ukraine to lower its military conscription age to 18 to address manpower shortages.

This development eerily echoes a prediction made by Putin in June, where he suggested Zelensky would be forced to make unpopular decisions like lowering the draft age before being replaced in early 2025.

CSTO Nuclear Umbrella

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Russia's nuclear deterrence umbrella now covers all member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), including:

• Belarus
• Armenia
• Kazakhstan
• Kyrgyzstan
• Tajikistan

This statement underscores Russia's commitment to its allies and may serve as a warning against potential Western interference in these countries.

Russian Ruble Weakens Against Dollar

The Russian ruble has weakened to around 114 per US dollar, prompting concerns about the state of the Russian economy. However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov downplayed the impact, noting:

• Most Russians receive salaries in rubles, limiting direct effects
• Many bilateral trade agreements use rubles or local currencies

The weakening is attributed partly to new sanctions against Gazprombank, which had been a key conduit for energy payments. While this may cause short-term disruptions, analysts suggest it could accelerate the trend of countries seeking alternatives to the US dollar for international trade.

France Won't Arrest Netanyahu

France has announced it will not enforce the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, citing diplomatic immunity. This decision contrasts sharply with France's stance on the ICC warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin two years ago.

Other European countries including Germany, Italy, and Hungary have also indicated they won't enforce the warrant against Netanyahu. This selective approach to ICC warrants has raised questions about the consistency and effectiveness of international justice mechanisms.

EU Foreign Policy Chief Steps Down

Josep Borrell is stepping down as the European Union's top diplomat, with Kaja Kallas set to take over the role. Borrell's tenure was marked by controversial statements and diplomatic gaffes, particularly regarding the conflict in Ukraine and EU-Russia relations.

As the EU navigates complex global challenges, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and tensions with Russia, the change in leadership may signal a shift in diplomatic approach and rhetoric.

Conclusion

The latest developments in the Ukraine conflict and related international diplomacy highlight the complex and often contradictory nature of global politics. From Putin's warnings of retaliation to the appointment of hawkish envoys and selective enforcement of international warrants, the situation remains highly volatile.

As the conflict approaches its third year, the human and economic costs continue to mount, with staggering casualty figures and far-reaching economic impacts. The international community faces the challenge of finding a path to de-escalation and eventual resolution, even as positions on both sides appear to harden.

The coming months may prove critical, with potential leadership changes in Ukraine and the United States potentially reshaping the diplomatic landscape. However, with Russia's continued military pressure and the West's commitment to supporting Ukraine, a swift resolution seems unlikely in the near term.

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