Neil deGrasse Tyson on Being Wrong: The Scientific Approach to Error and Discovery

The Concept of Being Wrong

Neil deGrasse Tyson, the renowned astrophysicist, recently shared his thoughts on the concept of being wrong. This topic is particularly intriguing coming from a scientist of his caliber, as it sheds light on how even experts approach errors and uncertainties in their field.

Everyday Errors vs. Scientific Wrong

Tyson begins by distinguishing between everyday errors and being scientifically wrong. He points out that we're all wrong multiple times a day in small ways:

• Arriving home later than expected
• Choosing the wrong route due to unexpected traffic

These minor mistakes are a normal part of daily life and don't carry significant consequences. However, the concept of being wrong in science is more complex and nuanced.

Scientific Frontier and Being Wrong

The Nature of Frontier Science

On the scientific frontier, being wrong is not only common but expected. Tyson explains:

• Most of the time, scientists on the cutting edge are wrong
• There's often insufficient evidence to justify being definitively right
• Scientists can only say, "I think it's this" based on current data

This uncertainty is a fundamental aspect of the scientific process, especially when dealing with novel phenomena or theories.

The COVID-19 Example

Tyson uses the COVID-19 pandemic as a prime example of how scientific uncertainty can be misunderstood by the public:

• The virus was novel, meaning scientists were unfamiliar with its behavior
• Initial information and recommendations changed as more data became available
• Public agencies struggled to communicate evolving understanding effectively

This situation highlighted the need for better communication about the nature of scientific progress, especially during rapidly evolving situations.

Levels of Being Wrong in Science

Incomplete vs. Wrong

Tyson introduces an important distinction between being wrong and being incomplete:

• Classical mechanics, while brilliant and effective, didn't explain the entire world
• Quantum physics emerged to provide a deeper understanding of reality
• The older theory wasn't necessarily wrong, just incomplete

This concept is crucial for understanding how scientific knowledge evolves over time.

Wrong but Useful

Sometimes, scientific models can be wrong but still provide useful insights:

• Ptolemy's geocentric model of the universe was fundamentally incorrect
• However, it could accurately predict planetary positions using complex calculations
• This "interesting wrong" triggered further work and discoveries

The Copernican Revolution

Tyson discusses how Nicolaus Copernicus' heliocentric model, while closer to reality, initially made less accurate predictions than the geocentric model:

• Copernicus assumed planets moved in perfect circles due to religious beliefs
• This assumption limited the accuracy of his model
• It took Johannes Kepler's discovery of elliptical orbits to fully realize the potential of the heliocentric model

This example shows how progress in science often involves multiple steps and refinements.

The Importance of Correction in Science

Embracing Corrections

Tyson emphasizes the value of being corrected in science:

• Scientists should welcome new evidence that challenges their ideas
• Being corrected leads to advancement and learning
• The ability to change one's mind based on new data is a strength, not a weakness

The Pulsar Planet Mistake

To illustrate this point, Tyson shares a story about the discovery of the first exoplanet:

• Initial data suggested a planet with an Earth-like 365-day orbit around a pulsar
• This finding was later retracted when errors in the calculations were found
• The scientific community applauded the researchers for admitting and correcting their mistake

This anecdote highlights the self-correcting nature of science and the importance of intellectual honesty.

Beliefs vs. Scientific Thinking

The Danger of Unshakeable Beliefs

Tyson contrasts scientific thinking with rigid beliefs:

• Some people hold onto ideas despite contrary evidence
• This resistance to new information is antithetical to scientific progress
• Scientific thinking involves proportioning belief to available evidence

Openness to Possibility

Tyson states that he remains open to all possibilities, including the existence of a deity:

• The level of belief should be proportional to supporting evidence
• This approach allows for constant reevaluation based on new information

Historical Examples of Being "Wrong but Right"

Einstein's "Greatest Blunder"

Tyson shares the fascinating story of Albert Einstein's cosmological constant:

• Einstein introduced this term to explain a static universe
• He later called it his "greatest blunder" when the expanding universe was discovered
• Decades later, the concept was revived to explain dark energy

This example shows how even apparent mistakes can sometimes lead to important discoveries.

The Value of Being Wrong in Science

Learning from Mistakes

Tyson emphasizes that being wrong in science is not a failure but an opportunity:

• Mistakes often lead to new insights and discoveries
• The willingness to admit errors and change course is crucial for scientific progress
• Being corrected should be seen as a positive, not a negative experience

The Role of Skepticism

Scientific progress relies on healthy skepticism:

• Scientists should question each other's work and findings
• This "hater" mentality in science helps ensure the validity of results
• Peer review and replication are essential parts of the scientific process

Communicating Scientific Uncertainty

Lessons from COVID-19

The pandemic highlighted the need for better communication about scientific uncertainty:

• Public agencies should be more transparent about the evolving nature of scientific understanding
• Regular updates and explanations of changing recommendations are crucial
• The public needs to understand that initial findings may change as more data becomes available

Educating the Public

Tyson suggests that improving scientific literacy could help:

• Teaching the scientific method and process in schools
• Explaining the difference between frontier science and established knowledge
• Encouraging critical thinking and openness to new evidence

Conclusion

Neil deGrasse Tyson's insights on being wrong offer valuable lessons for both scientists and the general public. By embracing the possibility of being wrong and remaining open to new evidence, we can foster a more scientifically literate society and accelerate the pace of discovery. The key takeaways are:

1. Being wrong is a natural part of the scientific process, especially on the frontier of knowledge.
2. The willingness to admit mistakes and change course based on new evidence is crucial for progress.
3. Scientific thinking involves proportioning belief to available evidence and remaining open to new possibilities.
4. Communicating scientific uncertainty and the evolving nature of knowledge is essential, especially during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic.
5. Even apparent mistakes or incomplete theories can sometimes lead to important discoveries in the future.

By adopting this mindset, we can create a more robust and dynamic scientific community, capable of tackling the complex challenges facing our world today.

Article created from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ua-eXgUQZ8Y