The Myth of Planning: Why Greatness Cannot Be Predetermined

The Fallacy of Rigid Planning in Innovation

In the world of entrepreneurship and innovation, we're often taught that the path to success is paved with careful planning and unwavering determination. Set a goal, create a detailed roadmap, and persevere until you reach your destination. While this approach may work for well-defined, formulaic endeavors, it falls short when it comes to groundbreaking innovations and true creativity.

Ev Williams, co-founder of Twitter and Medium, recently shared insights on this topic during a conversation with Tim Ferriss. Williams highlighted a book that has profoundly influenced his thinking: "Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned" by Ken Stanley. This book challenges our conventional wisdom about goal-setting and planning, especially when it comes to pursuing unprecedented achievements.

The Limitations of Goal-Oriented Approaches

The core premise of Stanley's book is that while setting specific goals and following predetermined plans can be effective for tasks that have been done before, this approach is often counterproductive when trying to create something truly innovative or groundbreaking. Williams explains:

"You can set a goal to run a marathon and you can download a training regime and you can go run the marathon. You probably can't do that to invent the computer or Twitter or create amazing art. You just can't plot it, and to the extent you try to plot it, you shoot yourself in the foot because you cut off the possibilities that lay before you."

This insight challenges the deeply ingrained belief that success always comes from setting clear objectives and methodically working towards them. In reality, many of the most significant breakthroughs in technology, art, and science have come from unexpected discoveries and serendipitous connections.

The Power of Exploration and Openness

Instead of rigid planning, Stanley's book advocates for a more open-ended approach to innovation and problem-solving. This method is inspired by the principles of evolution and the way artificial intelligence researchers have found success in creating adaptive systems.

Lessons from AI and Evolution

Williams recounts how early AI researchers, including Stanley himself, discovered that the most effective strategy for navigating complex, unknown environments was simply to "try something new." This approach, which prioritizes exploration and adaptation over predetermined paths, mirrors the process of biological evolution.

Nature, as Williams points out, is "the most creative force in the world" and operates without any grand plan. Instead, it relies on constant experimentation, trial and error, and adaptation to changing conditions. This process has led to the incredible diversity and complexity of life on Earth, all without a predetermined goal or blueprint.

Applying Open-Ended Thinking to Business and Product Development

For entrepreneurs and innovators, embracing this more flexible, exploratory mindset can lead to unexpected breakthroughs and opportunities. Williams shares how this philosophy has influenced his own approach to product development, particularly with his latest venture, Mosy.

The Evolution of Mosy

Initially conceived as a better contacts app, Mosy has evolved through a process of exploration and adaptation. Williams and his team have been willing to pivot and refine their vision based on user feedback and emerging opportunities:

"We rip that out. How are you going to approach the invite process to show your contacts? Because this seems to have been a challenge with some previous attempts of this work. If I look at my contacts, I've had... I mean, my contacts is this bloated monster full of people, a lot of them are sort of acquaintances I don't really want to keep in touch with."

By remaining open to new possibilities and willing to discard features that don't align with their core vision, the Mosy team has been able to create a more focused and valuable product.

The Challenges of Open-Ended Innovation

While embracing uncertainty and remaining open to new possibilities can lead to breakthrough innovations, it also comes with its own set of challenges. Williams reflects on his experiences with previous ventures, including Medium, to illustrate some of the pitfalls of this approach.

Balancing Vision and Execution

One of the key challenges is maintaining a balance between exploring new possibilities and executing on a clear vision. Williams admits that with Medium, he may have been too eager to add features and scale prematurely:

"Certainly, I think a lot of cases I was much too eager to add things, especially Medium. Medium, I definitely prematurely scaled. I just wanted to create... Why do you say that it's prematurely scaled? Because I hired too many people at first and had this like... My tendency, I'm good at seeing like systems and like a product, and like most of the things I build are systems."

This eagerness to explore multiple directions simultaneously can lead to a lack of focus and make it difficult to execute effectively on any single idea.

Managing Expectations and Pressure

Another challenge of open-ended innovation is managing expectations, both internally and externally. When you're not working towards a clearly defined goal, it can be difficult to demonstrate progress and maintain momentum. Williams notes that this pressure can come from various sources:

"It was internal, but it was self-imposed by me, but it was also... This is part of prematurely scaling is if you get beyond a handful of employees, it's as much pressure from employees as it is from investors, you know, and if you have everyone around the table and everyone's seeing all, then you can kind of take your time more. But if you like people are having doubts and you have to sell internally all the time before you figured it all out, that's a dangerous place to be."

Strategies for Embracing Open-Ended Innovation

Despite these challenges, there are strategies that entrepreneurs and innovators can use to harness the power of open-ended thinking while still maintaining focus and making progress.

Focus on Core Value

One key strategy is to maintain a relentless focus on the core value you're trying to create for users. Williams describes how this approach helped guide decision-making for Mosy:

"We actually built that. We built this whole system for making these cool looking cards that would show up for your friends in your Mosy, and then we killed it all. Thankfully, and I know that was... That was painful because you know, you've gone down a path with the team, they work really hard, and like actually, you know what? This is complicating our vision because what we're hearing from people and what we're sensing is that's kind of noise compared to the utility."

By staying focused on the core utility of the product – helping people connect with friends in real life – the team was able to make difficult decisions about which features to keep and which to discard.

Embrace Iterative Development

Another effective strategy is to embrace an iterative development process. Instead of trying to build the perfect product from the outset, focus on creating a minimal viable product and then refine it based on user feedback and real-world usage. This approach allows you to remain flexible and responsive to new opportunities while still making tangible progress.

Cultivate a Culture of Experimentation

To truly embrace open-ended innovation, it's important to cultivate a culture that values experimentation and learning. This means creating an environment where team members feel comfortable proposing new ideas, taking calculated risks, and learning from failures.

Williams emphasizes the importance of this mindset, particularly when working on unprecedented projects:

"If you're trying to do something that hasn't been done before, you know, we're taught from birth and from school and everywhere is like set your goal, make a plan to get to the plan, persevere, go through that. And the premise of the book is that works if it's something that's been done a lot and that's formulaic."

The Role of Personal Growth and Self-Reflection

Embracing open-ended innovation isn't just about business strategy – it also requires personal growth and self-reflection. Williams shares how his own journey of self-discovery has influenced his approach to innovation and entrepreneurship.

Embracing Emotions and Intuition

One key aspect of this personal growth is learning to embrace emotions and intuition, rather than trying to suppress or ignore them. Williams reflects on his own evolution in this area:

"I say this as someone who told their first therapist, I don't understand the point of feelings. I was like, they are just a nuisance and get in the way. And so it took me a long time to appreciate that and the avoidance that so many of us go through."

By learning to tune into his emotions and intuition, Williams has been able to make better decisions and navigate the uncertainty of innovation more effectively.

Continuous Learning and Self-Improvement

Another important aspect of personal growth is a commitment to continuous learning and self-improvement. Williams shares how he's incorporated practices like meditation and exercise into his daily routine:

"Yes, but I feel like they're the ones that everybody knows. Well, so I mean, sometimes the fundamentals are worth a review. I mean, it is exercise. Exercise and meditation, I dabbled in for a long time, and then I got much more serious a couple years ago about both, and really, really dramatic life improvement."

These practices not only contribute to overall well-being but also help cultivate the mental clarity and resilience needed to navigate the challenges of open-ended innovation.

The Future of Innovation: Embracing Uncertainty

As we look to the future of innovation and entrepreneurship, it's clear that the ability to embrace uncertainty and remain open to new possibilities will be increasingly important. The rapid pace of technological change and the complex, interconnected nature of global challenges mean that rigid planning and linear thinking are often insufficient.

Instead, successful innovators will need to cultivate the ability to navigate ambiguity, adapt quickly to changing circumstances, and recognize opportunities that may not have been apparent at the outset. This requires a shift in mindset from seeing uncertainty as a problem to be solved to viewing it as a source of potential and creativity.

The Role of AI and Emerging Technologies

Emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, are likely to play a significant role in shaping the future of innovation. Williams touches on this topic, noting how AI researchers have found success by embracing open-ended approaches:

"They were building bots and the example they talk about is trying to build a robot to go through a maze. And how they've, you know, tried to program all kinds of smart algorithms into it. And then they found that the most effective strategy was just try something new."

As AI systems become more advanced and capable of handling complex, open-ended tasks, they may serve as powerful tools for augmenting human creativity and problem-solving abilities. However, it will be crucial to ensure that these technologies are developed and used in ways that enhance, rather than replace, human ingenuity and intuition.

The Importance of Human Connection

Despite the increasing role of technology in innovation, Williams emphasizes the enduring importance of human connection and relationships. His latest venture, Mosy, is focused on using technology to enhance real-world social interactions:

"Mosy is a app for finding out where your friends are and getting together. And it's... We like to say it's actually social app because it's really about getting together with friends by knowing where they are."

This focus on using technology to facilitate genuine human connections, rather than replace them, may be a key trend in future innovations.

Conclusion: Embracing the Journey of Innovation

In conclusion, the path to true innovation and greatness often lies not in rigid planning and predetermined goals, but in embracing uncertainty, remaining open to new possibilities, and being willing to adapt and evolve along the way. As Ev Williams and others have discovered, this approach can lead to breakthrough innovations and unexpected successes.

However, embracing open-ended innovation is not without its challenges. It requires a willingness to take risks, face uncertainty, and sometimes make difficult decisions. It also demands a commitment to personal growth, continuous learning, and self-reflection.

Ultimately, the key to success in this approach is to view innovation not as a destination to be reached, but as an ongoing journey of exploration and discovery. By cultivating curiosity, embracing uncertainty, and remaining open to new possibilities, we can create the conditions for true greatness to emerge – often in ways we could never have planned or predicted.

As we look to the future, those who can master this approach to innovation – balancing openness and focus, embracing uncertainty while still making progress – will be well-positioned to create breakthrough products, solve complex problems, and make a lasting impact on the world.

Article created from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VV1Y9GSFZNk&t=2s