Kavon Thibodeaux's Fifth Year Option: Should the Giants Pick It Up?

The Decision Facing the New York Giants

The New York Giants and General Manager Joe Schoen are at a crossroads regarding Kavon Thibodeaux and his fifth-year option. As a first-round draft pick, Thibodeaux's rookie contract includes a team option for a fifth year, which the Giants must decide whether to exercise or decline. The financial implications are significant, with the fifth-year option carrying a price tag of $16.1 million for the 2026 season.

Understanding the Fifth-Year Option

All players selected in the first round of the NFL draft receive a minimum of four years guaranteed on their rookie contracts. The fifth year is a team option that can be either picked up or declined. In Thibodeaux's case, the $16.1 million figure for 2026 is no small sum and would rank among the higher cap hits and average annual values for defensive ends and pass rushers in the league.

Expert Opinion and Team Expectations

Dan Duggan of The Athletic believes the Giants are likely to pick up the option, stating:

"The Giants will need to decide on Thibodeaux's $16.1 million for 2026 this offseason. That's a tricky decision, but expect this regime to pick it up as the option for Thibodeaux, as he was their first pick and the number five overall selection."

Thibodeaux was indeed the first pick made by Joe Schoen and under head coach Brian Daboll's tenure, which adds weight to the decision.

Thibodeaux's NFL Journey So Far

Kavon Thibodeaux has shown flashes of brilliance in his NFL career:

• Impressive rookie year performance, particularly in a prime-time game against the Dallas Cowboys
• Missed some time due to injuries
• Recorded 11.5 sacks in his second year

However, consistency has been an issue, with periods of dominant play interspersed with games where his impact was minimal.

Comparing Thibodeaux's Potential Salary to NFL Standards

To put the $16.1 million figure into perspective, let's compare it to other edge rushers in the NFL:

• In 2026, $16.1 million would make Thibodeaux the 18th highest-paid edge rusher in terms of average annual value
• This would also rank him 18th or 19th in terms of cap hit for edge rushers in 2026

Essentially, exercising the fifth-year option would place Thibodeaux in the top 20 for edge rusher salaries. The question is: Has his on-field production justified this level of compensation?

Analyzing Thibodeaux's Performance Metrics

Let's dive into some key performance metrics for Thibodeaux:

Pressure Statistics

• Rookie year: 40 pressures
• Second year: 43 pressures
• Third year: 38 pressures (in fewer games played)

Pro Football Focus (PFF) Grades

Rookie Year

• Pass rush grade: Ranked 53rd out of 203 qualifying edges
• Run defense grade: Ranked 40th out of 203

Second Year

• Pass rush grade: Ranked 93rd despite 11.5 sacks
• Run defense grade: Ranked 148th out of 197

Third Year

• Pass rush grade: Ranked 35th overall
• Run defense grade: Ranked 69th

Pass Rush Win Rate

• 2024: 10.6% (career-best)
• 2023: 8.2%
• 2022: 9.6%

For context, the 20th highest pass rush win rate among edge rushers in 2024 was 16%, putting Thibodeaux significantly behind the top performers.

PFF's Pressure Production (PRP) Stat

• 2024: Ranked 27th
• 2023: Ranked 31st
• 2022: Ranked 42nd

While there's been improvement, these numbers don't clearly justify top 20 edge rusher money.

The Case for Declining the Fifth-Year Option

Despite Thibodeaux's potential and moments of brilliance, there are several reasons to consider declining the fifth-year option:

1. Production vs. Cost: Thibodeaux's current production doesn't align with top 20 edge rusher compensation.

2. Motivation Factor: Declining the option could serve as motivation for Thibodeaux to elevate his game in his fourth year.

3. Financial Flexibility: It allows the Giants to allocate resources more efficiently based on actual on-field performance.

4. Comparison to Other Decisions: The Giants declined to pay Saquon Barkley $10 million, and he's been more productive at his position than Thibodeaux.

5. Future Negotiation Leverage: If Thibodeaux has a breakout year in his fourth season, the Giants can still negotiate a new contract without being locked into the fifth-year option price.

The Counterargument: Reasons to Consider Picking Up the Option

While there are strong arguments for declining the option, there are also reasons to consider picking it up:

1. Potential: Thibodeaux has shown flashes of being a dominant player and could realize his full potential in the coming years.

2. Draft Investment: As a high first-round pick, the Giants have invested significantly in Thibodeaux's development.

3. Market Trends: Pass rushers are at a premium in the NFL, and prices for top talent continue to rise.

4. Team Context: With players like Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns on the defensive line, Thibodeaux could benefit from favorable matchups.

5. Long-term Planning: Securing Thibodeaux for an extra year could be beneficial for the Giants' long-term defensive strategy.

The Impact of Surrounding Talent

It's worth noting that Thibodeaux's situation is influenced by the talent around him. With Dexter Lawrence commanding double teams inside and Brian Burns attracting attention on the opposite edge, Thibodeaux often faces one-on-one matchups with opposing tackles. This favorable situation should, in theory, lead to increased production.

Comparison to Teammates

Interestingly, Thibodeaux's production in 2024 was not significantly better than that of his teammate Azeez Ojulari:

• Thibodeaux: 28 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks, 38 pressures (358 pass rush snaps)
• Ojulari: 28 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, 22 pressures (196 pass rush snaps)

This comparison raises questions about whether Thibodeaux's production justifies a significantly higher salary.

The Importance of Pass Rushers in Giants History

Historically, the New York Giants have built their success on a strong pass rush. The team's greatest achievements have come when they've been able to control the line of scrimmage and pressure opposing quarterbacks. This legacy puts additional pressure on Thibodeaux to perform and live up to the expectations of being a top-five draft pick.

The Risk of Waiting

Some argue that declining the fifth-year option could backfire if Thibodeaux has a breakout year in his fourth season. The concern is that the Giants might then have to pay even more to retain him. However, this scenario could be viewed as a positive problem to have, as it would mean Thibodeaux has finally realized his potential.

The Motivation Factor

Declining the fifth-year option could serve as motivation for Thibodeaux. There's precedent for this with the Giants, as seen with quarterback Daniel Jones. After his fifth-year option was declined, Jones had his best season to date. While the situations aren't directly comparable due to positional differences, the psychological impact of having to prove oneself shouldn't be underestimated.

Financial Considerations for the Giants

The decision on Thibodeaux's fifth-year option doesn't exist in a vacuum. The Giants must consider:

• Salary cap implications for 2026
• Other players due for extensions or new contracts
• The team's overall financial strategy and roster construction

The Path Forward

Regardless of the decision on the fifth-year option, the Giants and Thibodeaux have a shared interest in his development and success. The team needs him to become a dominant force on the defensive line, living up to his draft status and the legacy of great Giants pass rushers.

Conclusion

The decision on Kavon Thibodeaux's fifth-year option is not an easy one for the New York Giants. While his potential is undeniable, his production to date doesn't clearly justify the $16.1 million price tag that comes with the option. Declining the option could provide motivation for Thibodeaux to elevate his game in his fourth year, potentially leading to a more mutually beneficial long-term contract if he performs well.

Ultimately, the Giants must weigh the financial implications against the risk of losing a talented player, all while considering the team's long-term defensive strategy. Whatever the decision, it's clear that the 2025 season will be crucial for both Thibodeaux and the Giants as they look to build a formidable defense for years to come.

As the deadline for this decision approaches, Giants fans and NFL observers alike will be watching closely to see how Joe Schoen and the front office navigate this important roster management decision.

Article created from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pg-o8QHiZGE