Germany's Military Modernization: A New Era of Defense Strategy

The Dawn of a New Defense Era in Germany

In a historic move, the German government recently released its first-ever National Defense Strategy. This 76-page document outlines a radical new plan for addressing the security challenges faced by the nation. Paired with a revolutionary increase of $107 billion in military spending over three years, this strategy marks a significant shift in Germany's approach to national security.

The Current State of German Military

German defense official Ava Hogle has warned that the country has "too little of everything." This includes:

• Spare parts
• Tents
• Modern radios
• Body armor
• Tanks
• Submarines

Multiple reports have claimed that if war were to break out tomorrow, Germany would only have enough ammunition to last for about two days of fighting. While these headlines are attention-grabbing, they don't account for the fact that ammunition would be shared between NATO allies.

Plans for Growth and Modernization

In response to these challenges, the German government plans to:

1. Increase personnel from roughly 180,000 to 203,000 by 2031
2. Acquire new weapon systems, units, and tactics
3. Modernize and revamp their forces

Historical Context: Germany's Military Journey

Post-World War II Demilitarization

At the end of World War II in 1945, Germany unconditionally surrendered. The Allied powers of the United States, Britain, France, and the Soviet Union occupied the nation, completely disbanding their remaining 1 million personnel. This was driven by the atrocities committed by the German Third Reich, which left millions dead and untold millions more lives ruined.

The Birth of the Bundeswehr

In 1949, the Federal Republic of Germany was established. Since then, deeply held pacifist beliefs have been ingrained in their constitution. So, what led to the unlikely recreation of their military after the Allied Powers had already four-way pinky promised that they would never allow that to happen again?

Following the war, Germany was split between the Western powers on one side and the Soviet Union on the other. This unclassified RAND report from the US Army outlined how both sides dismantled German arms plants and seized them away to their own territory.

However, geopolitical tension between the two sides quickly emerged. From the Western perspective, three major events happened in just three years:

1. The Soviet Union's 1948 blockade of Berlin
2. The Soviet's first atomic bomb in 1949
3. The Soviet-backed North Korean invasion of South Korea in 1950

There were fears, founded in reality or not, that East Germany would invade West Germany in a similar manner. Many people forget that the Warsaw Pact maintained a conventional superiority over NATO, with an imbalance of power strongly in their favor.

In 1955, at the insistence of British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and American President Dwight Eisenhower, the new German Bundeswehr was created to fill this massive manpower gap. Germany's first Chancellor reluctantly agreed after stating he did not want to establish another military.

The Bundeswehr: A New Kind of Military

The Bundeswehr is a German term for the entire Federal Defense Forces, including the Army, Navy, and Air Force. Article 87a of the German Constitution, titled "Bundeswehr Restriction," outlines how their Armed Forces:

• Must be transparent in size
• Operate under civilian control
• Can only be used for self-defense or humanitarian intervention

This provision was implemented as a safeguard against the reemergence of aggressive militarism in post-war Germany. It reflected the country's commitment to peaceful coexistence and international law.

The Cold War Era

In 1956, compulsory military service was enacted in West Germany to conscript thousands, as NATO stated that they required half a million additional forces for a feasible defense against the Warsaw Pact. Defense spending rose to 4.9% of GDP in Germany by 1964, and they reached 500,000 troops by 1973.

As the Cold War heated up, NATO allowed Germany to increase investments in domestic arms production. Their company Krauss-Maffei pumped out over 6,000 Leopard 1 Main Battle Tanks. By 1989, they had:

• Over 7,000 armored vehicles
• 1,000 combat aircraft
• 18 surface-to-air missile battalions
• 40 missile boats
• 24 submarines
• Several destroyers and frigates

Even still, NATO was outnumbered by about a million troops and had less than half the amount of armored vehicles than the Warsaw Pact. From day one, the Bundeswehr was an integral part of NATO's deterrence policy. In fact, according to the German government, this accounted for roughly 50% of NATO's total land forces in the region.

The Fall of the Berlin Wall and Military Unification

In 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell, West and East German families reunited, and so too did their militaries. They absorbed about 50,000 East German soldiers and 2,750 armored vehicles, including BMPs and T-72s. By 1990, the Bundeswehr had this enormous combined army and ammo stockpile and was capable of fielding 215 highly ready combat battalions.

The Post-Cold War Era: Shrinking Forces and New Challenges

The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe

In 1990, a little-known Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe was signed by NATO and the Warsaw Pact. The agreement placed strict limits on conventional weapons for both sides. Over 52,000 armored vehicles, including hundreds of German Marder IFVs, were torn apart and destroyed in the first two years on both sides.

This is the year when defense spending fell below 2% and would stay that way for decades in Germany. Since there was no longer an immediate security threat on Germany's borders, their large standing army had less justification.

Downsizing and International Missions

By the year 2000, the Bundeswehr was cut down to 300,000 troops, and defense spending fell to 1.3%. Between 1987 and 2014, the US military closed 34 bases inside Germany and shrank down from about 490,000 troops to a low of 67,000 stationed there.

In 1990, Germany took on their first foreign peacekeeping mission in Kosovo. In 2001, Germany deployed in support of combat operations in Afghanistan. However, in 2003, the German government was the first Allied nation to condemn the United States' decision to invade Iraq and refused to send forces to support the mission.

The Impact of the 2008 Financial Crisis

The international financial crisis of 2008 saw further cuts to Germany's defense. By 2011, their forces shrank to their lowest number of about 177,000 soldiers. That same year, the German Parliament suspended military conscription, 55 years after it was introduced.

Germany had gone down from 215 to 34 battalions. This graphic created by the German publication Spiegel International visually shows just how much the Bundeswehr shrank from 1989 to today:

• Tanks down from 4,700 to 300
• 18 fewer submarines
• 390 fewer combat aircraft

The Peace Dividend and Its Consequences

At the end of the Cold War, as more countries chose to join the NATO alliance, Germany enjoyed a new geopolitical reality in Central Europe. They were now surrounded on all sides by allies. Instead of being on the front lines of an ideological battle and possibly Ground Zero for a third world war, Germany no longer had to carry that burden, which had now been shifted over to Poland and the Baltic states over 400 miles away.

Germany and other European countries then benefited from a concept known as the "peace dividend," which emerged as a popular phrase at the end of the Cold War. Peace dividend refers to the economic and social benefit that arises when a nation reduces its military spending and reallocates those resources to other areas of public spending.

During this time, Germany became an economic powerhouse in Europe with an explosion in productivity. While this was generally positive, allowing the military to shrink during times of peace, it sometimes led to outright neglect.

The 2014 Wake-Up Call: Russia's Annexation of Crimea

In 2014, Germany slammed on the brakes on this trend. Russia's annexation of Crimea changed the entire conversation. In 2015, just a year later, the German government decided to refurbish 100 previously mothballed Leopard 2 tanks instead of melting them down.

In May 2016, Germany approved a reversal in their policy by lifting personnel caps. On the strategic level, this is when we see Germany openly say in their government defense documents: "German security policy also has to take account of developments in geographically remote regions insofar as they affect our interests."

They're articulating for the first time that their national security has shifted from defending their own territories to helping defend their allies.

Zeitenwende: A Turning Point in German Defense Policy

"Zeitenwende" is a German term that roughly translates in English to "turning point" or "changing of an era." It signifies a transformative period in history. In February 2022, days after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz used this term in his speech to describe the upcoming changes in their defense policy.

Key aspects of this Zeitenwende include:

1. Reaching 2% of GDP for defense spending for the first time since 1990
2. Being able to deploy a whole division of 30,000 troops to support NATO
3. Breaking the taboo post-war policy of not exporting arms to a war zone by sending tanks and heavy weapons to Ukraine

Germany's New National Defense Strategy

In 2023, the German government's defense policy guideline outlined some of these new changes. For the first time, the new German government has agreed to maintain a contingent of troops outside their borders on a permanent deployment. 4,800 German soldiers and 200 civilians will live in Lithuania full-time, not on a rotational basis. This will include at least:

• 44 Leopard 2 A7 tanks
• 44 Puma infantry fighting vehicles

This deployment is planned to be in place by 2027. Lithuania was specifically chosen because of its strategic geographic position for the NATO alliance, bordering Russian Kaliningrad and having part of the potentially vulnerable Suwalki Gap within its borders.

Germany's Role in Europe

As the most populous country and the largest economy in the heart of Europe, Germany bears special responsibility for peace, security, prosperity, and stability. However, the German public has mixed thoughts on this idea that Germany will play a leadership role.

According to recent polls:

• 72% of Germans said that they don't want Germany to play a military leadership role in Europe today
• 78% of German public support the increased defense spending

These seemingly contradictory poll results suggest that the German people believe they should support their own national defense and help their European allies while also not taking the lead in that support.

Key Concepts in Germany's National Defense Strategy

Integrated Defense

The concept of "integrated defense" is central to Germany's new national security document. This means that every level of society, from the government to the business sector, needs to interact with each other towards the shared goal of security.

Sustainability

Sustainability is another key concept, appearing 55 times in the document. Prior to the invasion of Ukraine, Germany heavily relied on Russia for its energy, importing roughly 65% of their gas and a third of their oil from Russia. This dependency was recognized as a national security problem.

In a matter of mere months following the invasion, Germany was able to:

• Reopen coal-fired power plants
• Delay plans to shut down their nuclear power plants
• End reliance on Russian energy

This rapid shift demonstrates the concept of integrated defense, where different aspects of civil society and the military work in cooperation to address threats like energy sustainability.

Robustness and Resilience

The other two key words from the national defense strategy are "robustness" and "resilience." These terms reflect Germany's aim to build a defense strategy that can withstand various challenges and adapt to changing circumstances.

Germany's Military Acquisitions and Challenges

The Special Fund

The special fund of €107 billion created by Germany right after the invasion of Ukraine will be used specifically to procure new equipment. However, military acquisitions are by no means easy. They require massive resources and take long periods of time.

Germany's Arms Industry

Germany's arms industry has been called Europe's "arsenal of democracy" since it's one of the largest and most technologically advanced, with over 135,000 German workers. Companies like Krauss-Maffei and Rheinmetall have produced over 3,600 Leopard 2 tanks for 18 different countries around the world.

Rheinmetall just broke ground on a new artillery shell production plant in Germany. Current estimates place Rheinmetall's production at 1,155 artillery shells annually by 2027. Germany is now the seventh top defense spender in the world.

Challenges in Domestic Production

Despite being a major arms exporter, Germany faces challenges in producing weapons for its own military. This is partly due to how the German military budget is structured. Because of obvious historical examples, the German government focuses on high levels of transparency and bureaucratic accountability.

While this is good for democracy and preventing corruption and the over-consolidation of power, it can make certain things more difficult in the realm of military budgets. The Bundeswehr's budget is determined on a year-by-year basis, which means in the past, the budget has fluctuated. This makes it difficult to make long-term plans with unstable yearly funding that doesn't roll over into the next year.

Current Challenges Facing the German Military

1. Shortage of spare parts and ammunition
2. Low operational readiness of equipment
3. Aging demographic and difficulty in recruitment
4. Need for replacement of outdated aircraft
5. Slow progress in spending the new defense funds

Equipment Readiness Issues

On paper, Germany operates about 295 main battle tanks. However, according to reports directly from the Bundeswehr, only 30% of them are operational at any given time. There have also been reports of Germany's PzH 2000 artillery only being 40% operational, and that a year ago, they only had 20,000 artillery shells stockpiled.

A recent live-fire test found that 18 out of 18 of the Bundeswehr's Puma infantry fighting vehicles had malfunctions in their turret, preventing them from firing. This led to Germany pausing orders for that vehicle.

Planned Upgrades and Acquisitions

Despite these challenges, orders are being made. Germany currently has plans to upgrade their mechanized infantry forces with:

• 133 of the latest iteration of Boxer heavy weapons by 2030
• Addition of Patria 6x6 vehicles
• 18 of the next-generation Leopard 2A8 tanks
• Up to 28 new PzH 2000 artillery pieces

Recruitment Challenges

Germany has an aging demographic, and nearly 20,000 troops leave the service each year. This means that they would need to recruit 22,000 every year to hit their target of gaining 18,000 new soldiers by 2031, something that just does not seem to be possible right now at the current rate.

Air Force Modernization

Germany is beginning the replacement process for a fleet of multi-role Tornado aircraft designed in the 1970s. They've ordered:

• 35 F-35A fighters from Lockheed Martin (the first fifth-generation aircraft in the Luftwaffe)
• 15 retrofitted Eurofighter aircraft for electronic warfare

However, these can only cover a handful of the mission sets that were carried out by the Tornado and aren't intended to replace it fully.

Progress and Criticism

Despite the addition of €100 billion to their budget, progress so far has been slower than hoped. Over a year after the increase, criticism began to arise that the German Army had even less equipment than the year prior and that none of the €100 billion had been spent yet.

The primary depletion of equipment from Germany over the past two years has been due to donations to Ukraine, including hundreds of vehicles, body armor, and weapons that span from rifles to artillery guns. Similar to how other countries are donating to Ukraine, the new influx of defense funds will be going towards replacing those specific equipment losses.

Future Goals and NATO Commitments

The ultimate goal of Germany is to have a fully operational combat-ready division by 2025 as part of NATO's Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF). This would be a combat readiness formation made up of about 30,000 Bundeswehr troops ready to fight at a moment's notice. This is five times the size of the current readiness force of just 6,000 troops.

However, the German government is already talking about possibly needing to increase spending to 3.5% of GDP to meet these goals.

Conclusion

Germany's first National Defense Strategy marks a pivotal shift in their defense policy, emphasizing integrated defense to confront contemporary security challenges. This comprehensive approach, supported by a substantial increase in defense spending, reflects Germany's commitment to modernizing its military while balancing its historical pacifism with the urgent need to adapt to a changing geopolitical landscape.

As of 2023, the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe that was signed at the end of the Cold War has now been suspended by Russia, Germany, Poland, the United States, and others. This development, along with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, underscores the importance of Germany's new defense strategy and its potential impact on European and global security dynamics.

As Germany continues to navigate these changes, the world will be watching to see how this economic powerhouse translates its new defense strategy into tangible military capabilities and geopolitical influence. The success of this transformation could have far-reaching implications for NATO, European security, and the global balance of power in the years to come.

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