The Future of US-China Relations and the Ukraine Conflict

The State of US-China Relations

The relationship between the United States and China has become increasingly tense in recent years, with both sides viewing each other as strategic competitors. According to Professor John Mearsheimer, China understands it is engaged in an intense security competition with the US that is likely to worsen over time. Many Chinese believe the US is responsible for the deteriorating relationship, while Americans tend to blame China.

Mearsheimer argues that this competition is not the fault of either country, but rather a result of the anarchic international system where great powers seek to maximize their security and influence. He notes that China's rise inevitably causes concern for the US, just as China's "century of humiliation" drives its desire to become more powerful. This creates a security dilemma where actions taken by one side to increase its security are viewed as threatening by the other.

China's Territorial Ambitions

China's territorial claims in the region further complicate relations. Specifically:

• China views Taiwan as sacred territory that must be reunified with the mainland
• China claims most of the South China Sea as its territorial waters
• China disputes Japan's control of islands in the East China Sea

These expansionist aims alarm the US and many of China's neighbors. Even if a temporary détente could be reached, the fundamental conflict of interests would likely persist.

Prospects for Stability

While some form of détente between the US and China may be possible, it would likely occur in the context of an ongoing security competition. The experts were pessimistic about the chances of a stable equilibrium emerging, given China's territorial ambitions and the lack of trust between the two powers.

Mearsheimer argues that from China's perspective, it makes strategic sense to try to push the US out of East Asia. Meanwhile, the US and its allies are determined to maintain a strong presence in the region. This creates a recipe for continued tensions and potential conflict.

The Ukraine War and Its Global Impact

The ongoing war in Ukraine has significant implications for the global balance of power and US foreign policy. With Ukraine's military position deteriorating, there is increasing debate about how the conflict may end and what role the US should play.

Current State of the War

The experts agreed that Ukraine's military situation has become dire:

• Ukraine's counter-offensive failed to achieve major breakthroughs
• Russia is making territorial gains and encircling Ukrainian forces
• Ukraine is running low on manpower and equipment
• Western military aid has been insufficient to turn the tide

There is a growing sense that Ukraine may be on the verge of military collapse, raising questions about how much more territory Russia may seize.

Prospects for a Negotiated Settlement

The discussants were pessimistic about the chances of a negotiated peace deal, for several reasons:

• Russia's minimum demands (neutrality for Ukraine, recognition of territorial gains) are politically unacceptable to Ukraine and the West
• There is deep distrust between Russia and the West after previous agreements like Minsk were not implemented
• The US and its allies are unwilling to formally agree to limit NATO expansion
• Russia has incentives to push for maximal gains on the battlefield while it has the advantage

Without a negotiated settlement, the likely outcome is a "frozen conflict" where fighting dies down but territorial disputes remain unresolved. This could lead to renewed conflict in the future.

Impact of US Presidential Election

The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 adds another layer of uncertainty:

• Trump has signaled he wants to quickly end US support for Ukraine
• This may accelerate Ukraine's military collapse if soldiers lose hope
• Trump may be more willing to make concessions to Russia, but still faces domestic constraints
• Trump's foreign policy team includes many hawkish figures on Russia and China

The experts doubted Trump has a coherent plan to resolve the conflict. His desire to reduce US involvement may simply lead to Russia consolidating its gains without a broader settlement.

Challenges for US Foreign Policy

Beyond the specific issues of China and Ukraine, the discussion highlighted several overarching challenges facing US foreign policy:

Overextension and Declining Influence

The United States faces ongoing conflicts and challenges across multiple regions:

• Continued instability in the Middle East
• An intensifying rivalry with China in the Indo-Pacific
• The draining conflict in Ukraine
• Domestic political and economic problems

This global overextension is straining US resources and influence. America's unipolar moment of the 1990s and early 2000s has clearly passed, but US leaders have struggled to adapt to a more multipolar world.

Erosion of US Soft Power

America's standing and credibility on the world stage has declined due to several factors:

• Perceived hypocrisy and double standards in foreign policy
• Heavy-handed use of sanctions and economic coercion
• Domestic political dysfunction and polarization
• Failed military interventions in the Middle East

This makes it harder for the US to build international coalitions and shape global affairs through persuasion rather than coercion.

Ideological Rigidity

The experts argued that US foreign policy remains overly influenced by liberal ideological assumptions that don't match current realities:

• Belief that promoting democracy and US values will naturally lead to peace and stability
• Viewing conflicts in stark moral terms of "good guys" vs "bad guys"
• Reluctance to negotiate or compromise with adversaries
• Overconfidence in America's ability to reshape other societies

This ideological lens can lead to misguided policies that ignore power realities and cultural differences between nations.

Lack of Strategic Coherence

There are concerns that US foreign policy lacks a clear, realistic strategy to navigate an increasingly complex international environment:

• Trying to maintain global primacy despite relative decline in power
• Simultaneously confronting multiple major powers (China, Russia)
• Neglecting diplomacy in favor of military/economic pressure
• Failing to prioritize among competing interests and commitments

Without a more coherent approach, the US risks overextending itself while failing to achieve core objectives.

Potential Ways Forward

While the overall tone was pessimistic, the experts did suggest some potential ways the US could improve its foreign policy approach:

Embrace Pragmatic Realism

• Focus on core national interests rather than ideology
• Recognize limits of US power and need for compromise
• Engage in dialogue with adversaries without preconditions
• Seek to manage great power competition rather than "win"

Recalibrate Global Posture

• Reduce military commitments in secondary theaters
• Shift resources and attention to Indo-Pacific
• Encourage allies to take more responsibility for regional security
• Avoid taking on new obligations without clear strategic rationale

Rebuild Economic Foundations

• Invest in domestic infrastructure, education, and innovation
• Pursue smart industrial policies to maintain technological edge
• Reduce dependence on sanctions as primary foreign policy tool
• Work to reform international economic institutions

Restore Diplomatic Capacity

• Reinvest in State Department and expand diplomatic corps
• Empower diplomats to explore creative solutions to conflicts
• Rebuild relationships with allies and partners
• Seek opportunities for great power cooperation on shared challenges

Promote Inclusive Security Frameworks

• Move beyond Cold War-style alliance structures
• Explore new regional security architectures that include rivals
• Support confidence-building measures between adversaries
• Address legitimate security concerns of all parties in conflicts

While implementing such changes would be challenging, they could help the US navigate an increasingly multipolar world more effectively. However, the experts were skeptical that US leaders would embrace such a reorientation in the near term.

Conclusion

The discussion painted a sobering picture of the challenges facing US foreign policy, particularly regarding relations with China and the ongoing Ukraine conflict. The experts saw few easy solutions, given the competing interests at stake and the ideological rigidity of many policymakers.

However, they emphasized the importance of clear-eyed realism in assessing threats, opportunities, and limits on American power. By embracing a more pragmatic approach focused on core interests, the US may be able to reduce tensions with rivals and more effectively shape the emerging global order.

Ultimately, successfully navigating this complex landscape will require skilled diplomacy, strategic restraint, and a willingness to seek mutually beneficial compromises. Whether American leaders can rise to this challenge remains to be seen.

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