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Start for freeThe ongoing conflicts in the Middle East pose significant challenges for the next US administration, regardless of who wins the 2024 election. A panel of experts recently discussed the key issues and policy options at a virtual event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations and Brookings Institution.
The Israel-Hamas War and Regional Tensions
The Israel-Hamas war, which began with Hamas's October 7th attacks on Israel, has now expanded into a regional conflict. Israel has launched operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah, raising fears of further escalation.
Stephen Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations noted that Israel's military doctrine is built for short, devastating conflicts, but they are now engaged in a prolonged multi-front war that is stretching their capabilities. The Israeli public initially felt they had "turned the tide" after strikes on Hezbollah leadership, but the group has continued to fire rockets into Israel.
Suzanne Maloney of Brookings pointed out that Israel's assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was a major escalation that risked direct conflict with Iran. While Israel has done significant damage to Hezbollah, the group retains substantial fighting capabilities.
The experts agreed that Israel's stated goal of eliminating Hamas and Hezbollah is likely unrealistic. For every militant leader killed, there are others waiting to take their place. The underlying grievances and support for these groups remain.
US Policy Options and Leverage
A key question is how much leverage the US has over Israel's actions. Stephen Cook argued that the US has little real leverage, since it has been unwilling to use tools like conditioning military aid. He stated, "You don't have leverage if you don't use it."
Others disagreed, with Linda Robinson of CFR contending that the US has not truly tested its leverage through public pressure on Israel. She suggested the next administration may need to be more proactive in using US influence, especially if the conflict threatens to engulf the region.
Shibley Telhami of Brookings criticized the Biden administration's approach, arguing that by embracing Netanyahu's government from the start, Biden gave Israel a "green light" for escalation. He believes a different president may have been able to secure a ceasefire much earlier.
The experts debated whether Vice President Kamala Harris, if elected, would take a different approach than Biden. Some felt she may be more willing to pressure Israel, while others argued she would face the same domestic political constraints.
Iran and Nuclear Concerns
Iran's role in supporting groups like Hezbollah and Hamas remains a major concern. Suzanne Maloney noted that Iran is now closer to nuclear weapons capability than ever before, largely due to the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal.
While some have suggested military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, Maloney cautioned this would likely only set back the program by a couple years at most. She argued that ultimately, major changes in Iran's behavior are unlikely without a different regime in power.
The experts agreed that preventing further escalation with Iran should be a priority for the next administration. However, they noted that Iran has thus far found its support for regional proxies to be cost-effective.
The Palestinian Issue
Linda Robinson highlighted the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, with massive destruction of infrastructure and tens of thousands dead or wounded. She warned that hardliners in the Israeli government are pushing for policies that would make a two-state solution nearly impossible.
Shibley Telhami argued there is currently no viable diplomatic path forward on the Palestinian issue. He noted that Arab states have indicated willingness to normalize relations with Israel in exchange for withdrawal from occupied territories, but there is no partner on the Israeli side willing to pursue this.
The experts agreed that major changes in Israeli and Palestinian leadership would likely be needed before any progress could be made toward a negotiated solution.
US Domestic Politics
The panelists emphasized that US policy in the Middle East is heavily constrained by domestic political considerations. Stephen Cook noted that while younger Americans increasingly view the conflict differently, the politics have not yet shifted enough to allow major policy changes.
Donald Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy was discussed, with Cook arguing that Israel appears to be an exception. Trump's moves like recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights were aimed more at his evangelical base than getting concessions from Israel.
The experts debated how much a Harris administration might differ from Biden's approach. While some felt she may take a tougher line with Israel, others argued she would face the same political pressures limiting US leverage.
Looking Ahead
As the US approaches the 2024 election, the next administration will face a host of challenges in the Middle East:
- Managing the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and preventing further regional escalation
- Addressing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza
- Deterring Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional activities
- Balancing support for Israel with pressure for policy changes
- Reviving diplomacy on the Palestinian issue
- Maintaining relationships with Arab partners
The experts emphasized that these issues cannot be viewed in isolation. US policy in the Middle East will be shaped by other global priorities, including the war in Ukraine and competition with China.
Ultimately, they argued that the next administration will need to reassess longstanding assumptions about US policy in the region. While domestic political constraints remain significant, the mounting costs of the current approach may force a recalibration of US strategy and the use of leverage with partners like Israel.
As the panelists noted, there are no easy solutions to the complex challenges in the Middle East. But with conflicts escalating and US interests at stake, the next administration will face pressure to chart a new course in this critical region.
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