The Future of Latin America Under the Trump Administration: Challenges and Opportunities

The Wilson Center recently hosted a panel discussion on the future of US-Latin America relations under a potential second Trump administration. The panel featured former Colombian President Iván Duque, OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro, and former USAID Deputy Administrator Bonnie Glick. They discussed key priorities, challenges, and opportunities for engagement between the US and Latin American countries.

Key Priorities for US-Latin America Relations

The panelists identified several key priorities they expect to shape US policy toward Latin America in a second Trump term:

Migration and Border Security

Migration and border security are likely to be top priorities, given their prominence in Trump's campaign messaging. The panelists noted the ongoing migration crisis, with large numbers of migrants traveling through countries like Panama and Costa Rica toward the US southern border.

President Duque highlighted that about 60% of migrants passing through the Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama are from Venezuela. He emphasized the need to address root causes of migration, including the ongoing crisis in Venezuela under the Maduro regime.

The experts expect the Trump administration to take a tough stance on border security and push for greater cooperation from countries like Mexico to stem migration flows. This could include threats of tariffs or other economic measures to compel action.

Combating Drug Trafficking and Organized Crime

Addressing drug trafficking and transnational organized crime is likely to be another key focus. The panelists noted concerning trends like rising cocaine production in Colombia and the devastating impact of fentanyl trafficking into the US.

President Duque warned that the Maduro regime in Venezuela, along with Nicaragua and Cuba, are interconnected with criminal networks operating in the region. He called for a tougher approach to these authoritarian governments as part of broader efforts to combat organized crime.

The experts anticipate the Trump administration will push for more aggressive counter-narcotics efforts and cooperation from regional partners to disrupt trafficking networks.

Promoting Democracy and Countering Authoritarianism

Supporting democracy and pushing back against authoritarian regimes emerged as another likely priority. President Duque argued that leaving the region "without dictators" by promoting democratic transitions in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba should be a key legacy goal for the next administration.

Secretary General Almagro emphasized ongoing challenges to democracy in the region, including leaders refusing to leave power after losing elections. He stressed the need to strengthen democratic institutions and deliver tangible benefits to citizens.

The panelists expect the Trump administration to take a tougher stance toward authoritarian governments in the region while supporting democratic forces.

Economic Cooperation and Near-Shoring

Expanding economic ties and promoting "near-shoring" of manufacturing and supply chains closer to the US emerged as another potential focus area. The experts noted opportunities to strengthen trade and investment links within the Americas as an alternative to reliance on China.

President Duque highlighted the region's potential in areas like renewable energy, food production, and critical infrastructure. He argued that fostering US investment and economic growth in Latin America could help address root causes of migration.

The panelists expect the Trump administration to pursue expanded economic engagement in the region, potentially leveraging private sector involvement.

Key Challenges and Opportunities

The discussion highlighted several key challenges and opportunities for US-Latin America relations in the coming years:

Balancing Engagement and Sovereignty Concerns

The panelists noted the challenge of balancing renewed US engagement in the region with some countries' desire to protect their sovereignty and internal affairs. This may require careful diplomacy and negotiation, especially on sensitive issues like migration and security cooperation.

Countering China's Growing Influence

Addressing China's expanding economic and diplomatic presence in Latin America emerged as a key challenge. The experts argued that the US needs to offer attractive alternatives for trade, investment, and infrastructure development to counter China's inroads in the region.

Strengthening Democratic Institutions

The panelists emphasized ongoing challenges to democracy in parts of Latin America, including weakening of judicial independence and other democratic institutions. They stressed the need to support efforts to strengthen democratic governance and deliver tangible benefits to citizens.

Fostering Regional Integration and Cooperation

Promoting greater economic integration and cooperation within the Americas was identified as a key opportunity. The experts argued this could help boost development, create jobs, and provide alternatives to engagement with extra-regional powers like China.

Leveraging Technology and Innovation

The discussion highlighted opportunities to harness the region's technological and entrepreneurial talent to drive innovation and economic growth. This could include cooperation on emerging technologies like artificial intelligence.

Showcasing Regional Unity

The upcoming 2026 World Cup, co-hosted by the US, Mexico, and Canada, was noted as an opportunity to demonstrate regional cooperation and integration on the global stage.

Policy Recommendations

Based on the discussion, some key policy recommendations for US engagement with Latin America include:

• Maintain a strong focus on democracy promotion and push back against authoritarian regimes
• Pursue a comprehensive approach to addressing root causes of migration
• Expand economic cooperation and near-shoring initiatives to boost regional development
• Offer competitive alternatives to Chinese investment and infrastructure projects
• Support efforts to strengthen democratic institutions and deliver benefits to citizens
• Foster greater regional integration and cooperation within the Americas
• Leverage private sector engagement to drive investment and economic ties
• Promote cooperation on technology and innovation to boost competitiveness
• Balance renewed engagement with respect for sovereignty concerns
• Maintain bipartisan support for key regional partnerships

The panelists expressed cautious optimism about opportunities to strengthen US-Latin America relations, while acknowledging significant challenges ahead. They emphasized the importance of sustained engagement and cooperation to address shared priorities like promoting democracy, fostering economic growth, and enhancing regional security.

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