Derek Carr to the Giants? Analyzing the Potential Trade Scenario

Derek Carr Trade Rumors: A Deep Dive

Recent speculation has emerged about the New York Giants potentially trading for quarterback Derek Carr. Let's analyze this scenario in detail, looking at Carr's performance, contract situation, and the likelihood of such a move.

The Origin of the Rumor

Jordan Raanan, a respected ESPN beat reporter for the Giants, mentioned that "the trade avenue at quarterback could also be an option" for the team. He specifically named Derek Carr as a potential target, citing uncertainty about Carr's future with the New Orleans Saints.

This aligns with statements from Giants management:

• John Mara emphasized that finding a quarterback is the team's top priority this offseason.
• Joe Schoen stated they would "look at any avenue" to upgrade the quarterback position, including free agency, the draft, and potential trades.

Derek Carr's 2023 Performance

Let's examine Carr's stats from the 2023 season:

• Completion percentage: 67.7%

• Passing yards: 2,834

• Touchdowns: 15

• Interceptions: 5

• Games played: 10

Carr started the season strong, particularly in the Saints' dominant win over the Dallas Cowboys. However, his season was cut short due to an injury sustained against the Giants.

Evaluating Derek Carr as a Quarterback

Pros:

• Prototypical size
• Good arm talent
• Nice touch on the ball
• Effective throwing over the middle
• Strong mental processing

Cons:

• Subpar pocket presence
• Limited playmaking ability outside of structure
• Decreased mobility compared to his early career

Advanced Stats and Rankings

Despite some perceived shortcomings, Carr's advanced stats paint a picture of an above-average NFL quarterback:

• EPA (Estimated Points Added) per play: 7th best in the NFL
• Adjusted completion percentage: Top 6 in the NFL
• Average depth of target: 13th in the NFL
• Yards per attempt: 10th in the NFL
• Big time throw percentage: Top 8 in the league
• Turnover-worthy play percentage: 14th best
• Pressure to sack percentage: 2nd best in the NFL

Additionally:

• Downfield EPA per attempt: 5th best in the NFL
• 35 career game-winning drives (13th all-time)

Carr vs. Justin Fields

When compared to Justin Fields, another quarterback often linked to the Giants, Carr's 2023 performance stands out:

• EPA per play: Carr 7th, Fields 25th
• Yards per attempt: Carr 10th, Fields 23rd
• Big time throws: Carr 8th, Fields 29th
• Turnover-worthy play percentage: Carr middle of the pack, Fields 22nd

The Trade Scenario

While Carr's on-field performance might justify a trade, the financial implications make such a move highly unlikely. Here's why:

1. Contract details: If traded, Carr would come with a $30 million base salary and a $10 million roster bonus for 2024.

2. Guaranteed money: Carr has $30 million guaranteed in his contract.

3. Saints' perspective: Trading Carr would result in a $40 million dead cap hit for the Saints, while only saving $1.3 million.

4. Cut scenario: It's more likely the Saints will designate Carr as a post-June 1 cut, saving $30 million on the cap while taking on a $21.4 million dead cap hit.

Why a Trade Doesn't Make Sense

1. For the Giants: Taking on a $40 million salary for Carr is too expensive.
2. For the Saints: Trading Carr provides minimal cap relief compared to cutting him.
3. Market knowledge: Other teams are aware of the Saints' cap situation, reducing potential trade value.

The Free Agency Scenario

Given these factors, it's much more likely that Carr will become a free agent. This presents a more attractive option for the Giants:

1. Projected contract: CBS Sports projects Carr could sign a one-year, $15 million deal in free agency.
2. Saints' obligation: New Orleans still owes Carr $21 million in 2025, regardless of his status.
3. Value proposition: A one-year, $15 million deal for Carr would be excellent value for a bridge quarterback.

Conclusion

While acquiring Derek Carr could potentially upgrade the Giants' quarterback position, a trade is not the most logical path. The financial implications for both teams make a trade scenario unlikely. Instead, if the Giants are interested in Carr, they would be better served waiting for him to potentially hit the free agent market.

If Carr becomes available as a free agent on a short-term, moderate-salary deal, he could be an attractive option for the Giants. He would provide a veteran presence, solid quarterback play, and serve as an effective bridge while the team potentially develops a younger quarterback for the future.

Ultimately, the Giants' quarterback situation remains a key focus for the offseason. Whether through free agency, the draft, or an unexpected trade, expect the team to explore all options to improve at this crucial position.

The Bigger Picture: Giants' Quarterback Search

The Derek Carr speculation is just one piece of a larger puzzle for the New York Giants as they navigate their quarterback situation. Let's expand our view to consider the team's overall strategy and options.

Current State of the Giants' QB Room

Before diving into potential additions, it's important to assess the Giants' current quarterback situation:

• Daniel Jones: Signed a four-year, $160 million contract in 2023 but suffered a season-ending ACL injury.
• Tyrod Taylor: Veteran backup who filled in admirably but is set to become a free agent.
• Tommy DeVito: Undrafted rookie who showed flashes but is still a developmental prospect.

Why the Giants Are Exploring Options

1. Jones' injury: There's uncertainty about when Daniel Jones will be ready to return and at what level he'll perform post-injury.
2. Contract flexibility: Despite Jones' large contract, the Giants have structured it in a way that gives them some flexibility after the 2024 season.
3. Performance concerns: Even before his injury, Jones' performance in 2023 raised questions about his long-term viability as the franchise quarterback.

Potential Quarterback Strategies

1. Free Agency

Beyond Derek Carr, other free agent quarterbacks the Giants might consider include:

• Kirk Cousins: Coming off an Achilles injury but has a proven track record.
• Ryan Tannehill: Experienced veteran who could serve as a bridge quarterback.
• Baker Mayfield: Coming off a resurgent season with Tampa Bay.
• Jacoby Brissett: Solid backup with starting experience.

2. NFL Draft

The Giants hold the 6th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Potential quarterback targets could include:

• Jayden Daniels (LSU)
• J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)
• Bo Nix (Oregon)

However, the top quarterbacks like Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are likely to be off the board by the 6th pick.

3. Trade Market

While a Derek Carr trade seems unlikely, other quarterbacks who might be available via trade include:

• Justin Fields: If the Bears decide to draft a QB with the 1st overall pick.
• Trey Lance: Former 3rd overall pick who might benefit from a change of scenery.

Factors Influencing the Giants' Decision

1. Salary cap implications: Any move must fit within the team's cap constraints.
2. Long-term vs. short-term solution: Balancing the need for immediate improvement with long-term planning.
3. Draft position: The Giants' draft slot may limit their options for a top rookie QB.
4. Offensive scheme fit: Any new quarterback should align with the offensive system.
5. Supporting cast: The Giants need to consider how to best support their quarterback with improvements to the offensive line and skill positions.

The Case for a Bridge Quarterback

Given the uncertainties surrounding Daniel Jones and the team's draft position, a bridge quarterback like Derek Carr (if available in free agency) could be an attractive option for several reasons:

1. Experience: A veteran presence can stabilize the offense and mentor younger players.
2. Short-term commitment: Allows flexibility for future moves, including potentially drafting a QB in 2025.
3. Immediate competitiveness: A solid veteran could help the Giants compete in a tough NFC East.
4. Evaluation period: Gives the new coaching staff time to assess the roster and plan for the future.

Potential Impact on the Giants' Offense

Regardless of who ends up under center for the Giants in 2024, the team needs to focus on improving the overall offensive infrastructure:

1. Offensive line upgrades: Better protection is crucial for any quarterback's success.
2. Weapons development: Continuing to develop young talents like Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson.
3. Scheme adaptation: The offensive system may need tweaking to fit the strengths of the new quarterback.

Fan and Media Expectations

The quarterback position is always under scrutiny in New York, and fans are eager for stability and success. The Giants' decision-makers must balance these expectations with practical considerations:

1. Win-now pressure: There's always pressure to compete immediately in the NFL.
2. Long-term vision: Building a sustainable contender requires patience and smart planning.
3. Market realities: New York media and fans can be unforgiving, adding pressure to any quarterback decision.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Offseason

The New York Giants find themselves at a crossroads regarding their quarterback situation. While the Derek Carr trade rumor has been debunked, it highlights the team's need to thoroughly explore all quarterback options this offseason.

Whether through free agency, the draft, or an unexpected trade opportunity, the Giants' quarterback decision will have far-reaching implications for the franchise. The ideal scenario would balance immediate competitiveness with long-term potential, all while managing salary cap constraints.

As the offseason progresses, Giants fans should expect continued speculation and analysis of various quarterback options. The team's decision at this crucial position will likely shape their strategy for years to come, making this one of the most important offseasons in recent Giants history.

Ultimately, the success of the Giants in 2024 and beyond will depend not just on who they choose to play quarterback, but on how they build and adapt the entire team around that pivotal position. The coming months promise to be filled with intrigue and anticipation as the Giants navigate this critical decision.

Article created from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cATC0lDKXjA