China's Military Reach: Analyzing Beijing's Ability to Project Power in Europe

China's Recent Military Exercises Near NATO Borders

In July 2024, China made headlines by transporting soldiers approximately 3,000 miles away to Belarus. These troops conducted joint training exercises just a mile and a half from NATO member Poland's border and 40 miles from Ukraine. This move came shortly after NATO's strong criticism of Beijing, raising questions about China's intentions and capabilities in projecting military power far from its borders.

The Significance of the Exercise

This military exercise marked the first time Beijing has conducted such a mission since 2015. The timing suggests that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) may be sending a warning message to the United States, indicating their readiness to deploy troops against NATO and in Europe if necessary.

It's worth noting that the United States military regularly conducts larger training missions near China and Russia's borders. Similarly, Russia has recently carried out submarine missions to their allies in Cuba, close to the United States. However, the rhetoric surrounding this particular Chinese exercise has amplified its perceived importance.

Official Statements and Reactions

The deputy head of the general staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces stated that the maneuvers were a response to the West's aggressive foreign policy towards Belarus and to Ukrainian provocations. Meanwhile, NATO recently met in Washington DC and released a joint statement calling China a "decisive enabler" of Russia's war, accusing Beijing of enabling the largest land war in Europe in recent history.

In response, Beijing dismissed these accusations as "lies and smears," asserting that the exercises were not aimed at any specific country.

Assessing China's Ability to Fight a Land War in Europe

To evaluate China's potential to engage in a land war in Europe, we need to examine three key areas of the Chinese military:

1. Strategic airlift capabilities
2. Sea transportation options
3. Ground transportation infrastructure

Strategic Airlift Capabilities

The Y-20 Transport Aircraft

China sent a single Y-20 cargo plane to Belarus for the recent exercise. The Y-20 is slightly smaller than the American C-17 transport aircraft but can carry a similar payload of approximately 188 soldiers. According to China's Ministry of National Defense, the exercise focused on anti-terror training, including hostage rescue, urban combat, and water crossings.

Key features of the Y-20:

• Payload capacity: 66 tons
• Can carry two light tanks or one main battle tank
• China has built a fleet of 67 Y-20s since 2016

The development of the Y-20 is significant because it makes China one of only four nations in the world capable of manufacturing a 200-ton military transport jet. This capability is crucial for projecting power and fighting wars abroad.

Previous Deployments

In April 2022, six Chinese Y-20s landed at Nikola Tesla International Airport in Serbia, delivering FK-3 surface-to-air missiles (export variant of China's HQ-22). This demonstrates that China is currently focusing its airlift capabilities on transporting weapons and equipment rather than deploying troops.

Additional Transport Aircraft

China also possesses 20 Russian-produced IL-76 cargo planes, which can carry two lightweight armored trucks (but no tanks) and 130 troops.

Current Airlift Capacity

With their current capabilities, China could theoretically fly about 12,000 soldiers to Russia or Belarus if necessary. This is roughly equivalent to two brigades. However, this estimate doesn't include armored vehicles, which are essential for modern warfare.

Limitations and Challenges

1. Deploying a fully equipped armored brigade would require multiple trips:

   • A typical armored brigade includes:
     • 80 main battle tanks
     • 18 self-propelled artillery vehicles
     • 150 infantry fighting vehicles
     • 100 armored trucks and logistic vehicles
   • It would take China's entire strategic airlift fleet 10 round trips to deploy two brigades, potentially taking over a month.

2. Logistical constraints:

   • Limited aircraft storage, service, and maintenance capabilities at destination airfields
   • Challenges in providing food, shelter, and other necessities for deployed troops
   • Impact on local populations due to sudden influx of soldiers

3. Aircraft maintenance and support:

   • Need to dedicate some transport aircraft for support roles (flying specialists and parts for repairs)
   • Trade-off between range and cargo capacity due to increased wear and tear on heavily loaded aircraft

4. Mid-air refueling limitations:

   • When fully loaded, the Y-20's range is reduced from 7,000 km to 3,700 km
   • The closest point from Belarus to China (Xinjiang) is 4,600 km
   • China currently lacks significant mid-air refueling capabilities compared to the US (400 refueler tankers)
   • China has just started manufacturing Y-20U variants for refueling

5. Lack of larger transport aircraft:

   • China doesn't have equivalents to the American C-5 or Russian An-124, which can carry twice the capacity (140 tons)

Expert Assessments

According to the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, China's current airlift capacity would struggle to support a limited war in Europe. Their report suggests that:

• By 2035, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) aims to be capable of fighting a limited war overseas to protect its interests in countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative.
• By mid-century, the PLA aims to be capable of rapidly deploying forces anywhere in the world.

Roger Cliff, in a publication for the US Army War College, stated that China's Air Force does not currently appear to be aiming to become a global power projection force. The acquisition of aerial refueling aircraft seems to be a lower priority, and the PLA Air Force does not yet possess heavy bombers.

Ground Transportation Options

Given the limitations of strategic airlift, China might consider alternative ground transportation routes to deploy troops and equipment to Europe.

Trans-Siberian Railway

One option is to use the Trans-Siberian Railway:

1. Load tanks and troops onto ships
2. Offload them at Vladivostok
3. Move them by rail approximately 9,300 km across Russia

Chongqing-Xinjiang-Europe Railway

Another potential overland route is the Chongqing-Xinjiang-Europe Railway:

• Distance: Approximately 11,000 km from China to Belarus
• Travel time: About 16 days

However, there are several challenges associated with using this route for military purposes:

1. Current usage: The railway is already used by 30 trains each day for trade and economic activity.
2. Infrastructure limitations: The railway is designed for cargo, not troop movements, and has weight limitations.
3. Modifications required: Significant changes to freight cars would be necessary to transport tanks and military equipment.
4. Geopolitical considerations: China would need permission from Kazakhstan, where the rail passes through.

Despite these challenges, the geopolitical aspect might not be insurmountable, as Kazakhstan, Russia, and China are all founding members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which Belarus recently joined.

Expert Opinion on Railway Routes

An active-duty US Army Logistics officer commented on the railway route option:

"This would allow the PLA to deploy more soldiers, supplies, and even heavier equipment. This could work for a short training deployment but would be wholly inadequate during a longer deployment and even worse during combat operations. The extreme distance between mainland China and Belarus would force the PLA to rely on a predictive style of resupply (push method) and not a responsive style (pull method). This would either overburden units with more rations, ammunition, and repair parts than they can consume or, more likely, not enough."

Previous Railway Deployments

In 2021, China sent troops, tanks, and equipment by rail into Russia to participate in the International Army Games. However, this deployment was limited in scope and distance, only crossing the border into the Mongolia Autonomous Region.

Sea Transportation Options

China's sea lift capabilities include:

• Three Type 075 transport ships (can move 800 soldiers each)
• Two operational aircraft carriers

However, there are significant challenges to using sea routes for deploying troops to Europe:

1. Limited access: The Arctic Ocean route through the Bering Strait isn't navigable most of the year.
2. Geopolitical constraints: It's unlikely that Turkey would allow China to transport troops through the Bosporus Strait.
3. Lack of blue-water navy: China currently doesn't have the naval capabilities or foreign relationships necessary to transport soldiers over such long distances.

Logistical Challenges of Supporting Troops Abroad

Deploying troops is only part of the challenge. Supporting them in a distant location involves numerous logistical considerations:

1. Spare parts for vehicle maintenance
2. Fuel supply
3. Tools and equipment
4. Food and water
5. Ammunition

These supplies need to be transported thousands of miles, which requires complex rail head operations. Such operations are:

• Dangerous
• Time-consuming
• Require extensive training and specialized equipment

Even with regular practice, these operations can be hazardous. Between 2006 and 2018, 31% of active-duty US military deaths resulted from accidents during transportation operations.

Future Projections

Despite current limitations, China is likely to continue growing its power projection abilities:

• In 2016, Xu Qin of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China stated that they needed more than 1,000 Y-20s.
• China is projected to have 100 Y-20s by 2032.
• To match US airlift capabilities, China would need over 230 Y-20s and another 100 refuelers.

Based on current production rates, assessments suggesting China could reach these capabilities by 2035 or 2040 seem plausible.

Conclusion

While China's recent military exercise in Belarus has raised concerns about its ability to project power into Europe, the current analysis suggests that Beijing faces significant challenges in deploying and sustaining large-scale military operations so far from its borders.

Key limitations include:

1. Insufficient strategic airlift capacity
2. Lack of mid-air refueling capabilities
3. Logistical challenges in supporting troops over long distances
4. Limited sea transportation options
5. Complexities involved in using overland routes

However, China's military capabilities are rapidly evolving, and its ability to project power globally is expected to increase significantly in the coming decades. As China continues to invest in its military infrastructure and technology, the international community will need to closely monitor these developments and their potential impact on global security dynamics.

Ultimately, while China's current ability to fight a land war in Europe is limited, its growing military capabilities and strategic ambitions suggest that this situation could change in the future. Continued analysis and assessment of China's military developments will be crucial for understanding the evolving geopolitical landscape and potential security challenges in the years to come.

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