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Learn how to use the business cycle to forecast economic trends and asset prices. This framework combines long-term secular cycles with short-term economic indicators to make probabilistic predictions.
The S&P 500's composition has dramatically shifted over the past decades, with technology now representing over 40% of the index. This change significantly impacts how we should interpret the index's valuation.
The stock market is not a voting machine, but an auction where only the most optimistic investors determine prices. Understanding this principle is crucial for successful investing.
An analysis of implied earnings growth expectations for the S&P 500 based on current valuations. Examines historical precedents and potential consequences.
Analyzing 40 years of data to understand how Federal Reserve interest rate cuts affect stock market returns. Explores the theory, historical performance, and key factors beyond rate cuts.
The stock market experienced a strong rally following positive PPI data. Investors now await the CPI report and other key economic indicators.
Explore the factors behind the recent global market sell-off, including worries about the US economy and Federal Reserve policy. Gain insights from economic expert Muhammad El-Erian on market sentiment and potential outcomes.
Global markets tumbled, with the S&P 500 dropping over 3% and the Dow losing 1000 points. The selloff was triggered by concerns in Japan and uncertainty around the US election.
An in-depth look at the recent market correction, examining key factors including US economic data, tech sector valuations, and election uncertainty. This analysis explores the implications for investors and the broader economic landscape.