Afghanistan's Strategic Importance: Challenges and Opportunities for US Policy

The situation in Afghanistan remains a critical issue for US national security, despite receiving less media attention recently. At a Hudson Institute event, experts discussed the ongoing challenges and opportunities for US policy in Afghanistan and the broader region.

Current Situation in Afghanistan

Since the US withdrawal in 2021, Afghanistan has once again become an epicenter for terrorism:

• At least 20 different transnational terrorist groups are now operating more freely in the country
• There are an estimated 20,000-24,000 foreign terrorist fighters present
• Al-Qaeda's leadership is based in Kabul with the Taliban's support
• ISIS-K is growing in strength and numbers

The Taliban remain firmly in control, imposing strict Sharia law and severely restricting women's rights. No country has officially recognized the Taliban government.

Meanwhile, the Afghan economy has collapsed:

• GDP has shrunk by 30%
• 700,000 jobs have been lost
• 90% of the population faces food insecurity
• Foreign aid that previously provided 75% of government expenditures has been cut off

Why Afghanistan Still Matters

Despite the US withdrawal, experts argued that Afghanistan remains strategically important for several reasons:

1. Counterterrorism

The growth of terrorist safe havens in Afghanistan poses a direct threat to US national security. Multiple experts cited the 9/11 Commission's conclusion that safe havens were a critical factor enabling the 9/11 attacks.

There is already evidence of attack planning:

• ISIS-K conducted attacks in Iran, Russia and attempted one in Austria in 2024
• Three terror cells with links to Afghanistan were arrested in the US in 2024
• Al-Qaeda's leader has called for followers to use Afghanistan as a base to plan attacks on the West

2. Strategic Location

Afghanistan's position at the heart of Eurasia makes it geopolitically significant:

• It borders Iran and China, and is close to Russia
• Within an 8-hour flight radius of Bagram Air Base lies two-thirds of the world's population
• It connects South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East

3. Historical Pattern of Western Involvement

Luke Coffey of Hudson Institute noted that since the 1830s, the US or European powers have intervened significantly in Afghanistan about once every 10 years on average. This pattern suggests the US is likely to be drawn back in some capacity in the future.

4. Spillover Effects

Instability in Afghanistan has consequences that can impact US interests:

• Weapons left behind by the US are showing up on black markets in South America and elsewhere
• Drug production and trafficking is increasing
• Large-scale migration flows could destabilize the region

The National Resistance Front

The National Resistance Front (NRF), led by Ahmad Massoud, continues to oppose Taliban rule:

• The NRF claims to have conducted over 400 operations in 20 provinces in the past year
• UN reports have verified dozens of NRF attacks
• The group has expanded its presence without external support

Ali Nazary of the NRF argued that the group offers an alternative to both Taliban rule and the potential power vacuum that could emerge if the Taliban fracture. He suggested the international community should support the NRF to establish a "safe zone" within Afghanistan.

Policy Recommendations

Experts offered several recommendations for US policy going forward:

1. Engage with Afghan Opposition Groups

• Establish official engagement with the NRF and other democratic opposition forces
• Send higher-level US representation to the "Vienna Process" meetings of Afghan opposition groups
• Issue a formal invitation for Ahmad Massoud to visit Washington

2. Maintain Pressure on the Taliban

• Continue to withhold diplomatic recognition of the Taliban government
• Avoid viewing the Taliban as potential counterterrorism partners
• Maintain focus on human rights and women's rights issues

3. Prepare Contingencies

• Develop plans for potentially reestablishing a US presence at Bagram Air Base if needed
• Consider providing non-lethal aid to the NRF (winter gear, medical supplies, communications equipment)
• Explore using frozen Afghan central bank assets to support opposition groups and dialogues

4. Improve Intelligence and Strike Capabilities

• Enhance "over-the-horizon" intelligence gathering and strike capabilities focused on terrorist threats
• Reestablish on-the-ground human intelligence networks

5. Regional Diplomacy

• Develop a comprehensive US strategy for Central and South Asia
• Explore potential cooperation with regional powers like China, Russia and Iran on counterterrorism despite other tensions

6. Maintain Refugee Support

• Continue supporting Afghan refugees and asylum seekers, especially those who assisted the US mission
• Avoid forced deportations of Afghans back to Taliban-controlled Afghanistan

Conclusion

While the US military mission in Afghanistan has ended, the country remains strategically significant. Experts argue that completely disengaging from Afghanistan would be a mistake that could allow terrorist threats to reemerge. Instead, they recommend a nuanced approach of diplomatic engagement, contingency planning, and support for democratic opposition forces to protect US interests in the region.

By learning from past mistakes and maintaining strategic focus on Afghanistan, the US can work to prevent the country from once again becoming a launching pad for attacks on American soil while supporting a more stable future for the Afghan people.

Article created from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oidezfiMUSM